HB514...Municipal Charter Schools on the way?

News of an interesting bill filed last week landed here at aShortChronicle HQ thanks to an eagle eyed regular reader.

HB514 was filed by Matthews Rep Bill Brawley on March 28th.  The bill would allow certain municipalities in Mecklenburg and Union Counties to apply for their own charter schools.  Last year Matthews indicated its intentions to pursue a move for more independence from CMS after frustration with the CMS's reassignment process boiled over.  See that story here.

It's certainly an interesting idea, but as of now Brawley is the only sponsor.  This was filed as what's called a "local bill" and only impacts the towns of Matthews and Mint Hill in Brawley's district.  Typically, local bills need unanimous support from the county delegations to move along, but it is unclear how that might work here since only one district is impacted.

aShortChronicle checked with North Meck Rep John Bradford on where he stands on this bill.  Bradford sits on the House K-12 Education committee where this bill currently sits. Here's what he had to say.

"The bill you reference is designed for two towns, specifically, as a a pilot.

I support charter schools and parent choice. If this bill passes, I would like to see how this works out in the two towns. I think CMS would, at first, be against it but it might be a creative way for CMS to offer some alternatives like a magnet program. If they had their own Charter school(s) then the funding would still stay within the CMS system versus flowing outside the system into a separate Charter program. "

So, while this bill doesn't impact North Mecklenburg for now it is worth thinking about in the context of North Mecklenburg.

If this bill was to pass AND the pilots were successful AND the local towns were allowed to use it, it could become a possibility.   That's a lot of "ANDs", but if it were to happen Davidson, Cornelius, and Huntersville could effectively form a North Mecklenburg "district" and break away from CMS via a local network of charter schools.  The towns would sponsor the schools individually under this legislation, but could possibly operate them as part of some sort of interlocal agreement providing some level of independence from the town boards.

An interesting proposition to say the least.

If you support this bill or would like to see it expanded to include the North Mecklenburg towns, contact Rep Bradford to let him know.

His NCGA email is John.Bradford@ncleg.net.

Early voting from NC98 - Bradford vs Campbell

A little election day light reading...

With early voting data available from the BOE and the ncvotetracker.com app, here is what early voting looks like in the contentious race for NC House 98.  It's a risky proposition comparing numbers from a mid-term election (2014) and a Presidential year (2016), but compare we can.

First some baseline info.  NC98 is an R+9 district according to the Civitas Partisan Index - meaning the Republican won the 2012 vote for Governor and Council of State races in the precincts that make up this district by 9 more points than the statewide margin.  The CPI is calculated only in Presidential election years, so it is more applicable this year than it would have been in 2014.  In 2014, Republican John Bradford beat Democrat Natasha Marcus by 10 points, 55% to 45%.

It is also important to note, this district is not gerrymandered to have a Republican win.  North Mecklenburg is just a pretty solid Republican area.  In 2014, Marcus won 3 of 12 precincts - 206 in Davidson plus 145 and 239 in Highland Creek.  If anything this district could have been drawn to be much more Republican by not including 239/145 voters and including more from Huntersville.

In 2014 Marcus won big in the 3 precincts she did win, so we'll consider those precincts the Democrat voting base.  The comparable Republican 3-precinct base would be precincts 133, 208, and 242.  In 2014 the Dem base precincts gave Marcus 426 vote advantage over the Rep base precincts.

When comparing early vote totals from 2014 and 2016 the turnout in the Dem base was up 333% on average by precinct this year.  The Rep base was up just 266%. This would indicate Campbell has bigger cushion this year in these base precincts going into election day. (The massive increases are driven by the much larger overall turnout in a Presidential year.)

In 2014 the cushion favoring the Dems in the "base" precints was totally overwhelmed by the fact those 3 precincts were the only ones the Dem candidate won.  There are multiple other precints that favor the Republican almost as much as the ones included in the "base" precincts here, and this year they had bigger early vote % increases.

We will know by the end of the day if the same dynamic happens again this year.

North Mecklenburg digging out of paper blizzard

By Halloween night the “Great Blizzard of 2016” began to taper off, or at least that’s what the locals here in North Mecklenburg hoped.  It had been a long and stormy season, and at this point many were not sure how much more of this “weather” their spirits could take.

You may be asking yourself,  “Great Blizzard?!?!  What on earth could he possibly be talking about?”  It topped 80 degrees on Halloween.  Snow, much less a blizzard, is the furthest thing from most minds right now.

No, it’s not a blizzard of snow and ice we’ve been experiencing.  Instead, it’s been the constant blast of paper stuffing local mailboxes this election season that people are finding hard to take.  By Halloween, at least 50 flyers for and against various political candidates have landed in North Mecklenburg mailboxes.  Like any measurement of accumulation amounts vary depending on your exact location.  Some get more.  Some get less.  However, this season it seems more pervasive than others.

What makes this even more unusual, is that it’s not the historically divisive Presidential campaign that’s generated most of the volume.  No, it’s the race between Republican incumbent John Bradford of Cornelius and Unaffiliated challenger Jane Campbell of Davidson for NC House 98 in the North Carolina General Assembly that has generated the most flyers – by far.  The district covering Davidson, Cornelius, Huntersville’s east side and the Highland Creek area of Charlotte has been hit with at least 30 flyers from both sides starting in mid-September.

Like two equally heavily armed camps in a giant snowball fight the number of flyers have shown almost equal support for each side.  Though in fairness most have been attacking their opponent as much or more than promoting their own candidate.

To keep up this constant barrage requires a lot of money, and Halloween, October 31st, also happens to be the last day for campaigns and outside political groups to file their third quarter campaign finance disclosures.  The reports for both the Campbell and Bradford campaigns showed up on the State Board of Elections site that day as well.

Here are the highlights.

The campaigns raised comparable amounts from individual donors so far this election.  As a challenger, Campbell raised a very respectable $92,218 to Bradford’s $103,803.  Both candidates appeared to garner most of their individual support from their respective home bases within the district.

Bradford pulled ahead significantly in the cash race by raking in $54,800 from “Other Political Committees”.  That would be from other elected officials and industry PACs.  Campbell drew just $10,910.

Both campaigns sent huge amounts to their respective parties.

Campbell sent $55,000 to the NC Democrats.  Yes, technically she’s an “Unaffiliated” but Campbell is essentially running as the replacement Democrat since the party didn’t field one during the filing period.  Bradford sent $30,000 to the NCGOP.  Effectively, both candidates are paying for much of the flyers landing in local mailboxes through these payments to their respective parties.

At this point it would look like the incumbent has a sizable advantage, but the campaigns’ reports don’t tell the whole story.  Both sides also received significant outside help this cycle.  Third party groups that aren’t allowed to coordinate with the campaigns can effectively spend as much as they want to influence elections, and spend they did in this race.

As of the end of October, a group out of Raleigh called NC Families First has dumped $164,849 in opposition ads against Bradford or in support of Campbell.  On the other side Bradford has benefited from $20,000 in support from the NC Realtors.  Flyers have also gone out from the Mainstreet Merchants group and NC Citizens for Freedom in Education in support of his campaign. However, as of this writing numbers for those groups are not available.

So while Bradford’s campaign itself raised more money up through the Q3 of this year, the overall effort to elect Campbell appears to have the lead in total funding.

Regardless, both sides have a ton of money to spend and that has set the conditions for the paper blizzard we’ve been experiencing.

This post first appeared in the Herald Weekly at HuntersvilleHerald.com.

Left-leaning network spends at least $3.6 million on NC State races

aShortChronicle has posted extensive coverage of the outside spending impacting local races this election cycle.  Now, with election day upon us, some totals are in hand.

After Monday's filing deadline, we've identified $3,568,530 in what would be classified as direct campaign related expenditures (media buys, mailings, canvassing) from a single network of left leaning advocacy groups supporting Democratic Party candidates this election cycle.  Tens of thousands more in legal fees and other costs are also reported in their filings.

The network includes the following groups:

NC Families First, NC Citizens for Protecting Our Schools, A Better NC, Real Facts NC, Common Sense Matters, and Make NC First.  As mentioned in this previous post, all of these entities are connected through Raleigh Attorney, Michael Weisel.

If Weisel's name sounds familiar, it might be from reading these other articles in local media.  WFAE did a piece quoting him as representing NC Families First on the group's commercial against Bob Edmunds for the NC Supreme Court.  Weisel was also quoted in this WBTV report on Planned Parenthood posing as an anti toll group.  In the WBTV report, Weisel was representing NC Citizens for Protecting Our Schools.

This Planned Parenthood situation provides a great example of how the money flows.

The Planned Parenthood affiliated organization Community Organizing Group was working with a subsidiary of NC Citizens for Protecting Our Schools called "Aim Higher Now" to hand out some door hangers.  NC Citizens for Protecting Our Schools is a major funder of NC Families First sending them over $1.4 million this election cycle.  NC Families First in turn sent $485,000 to Planned Parenthood Action PAC NC for canvassing.  The WBTV report states Planned Parenthood Action as working with Community Organizing Group on the canvasing operation.

One can easily draw the connections between NC Citizens for Protecting Our Schools and the Planned Parenthood canvasing operation.  With one hand the "Citizens" group is paying for the canvasing via money given to NC Families First, and with the other hand they are paying for the canvasing materials. Ultimately, the money all flows to this operation from the same place, but it looks like multiple organizations working independently.

In reality, it's just part of a larger plan.

Another part of the plan is targeting NC House seats directly including NC98 and NC92.

According to NC Board of Elections data, NC Families First has hit NC98 Rep John Bradford with $164,849 in attack ads this cycle.  NC92 Republican Danae Caulfield has been hit by $66,471 from the group.

$231,320 spent on attack ads for 2 NC House seats in Mecklenburg county!!!

Further research shows this to be part of a wider effort by NC Families First to flood Mecklenburg and Wake counties with attack ads against Republicans.

The below list matches the list of "Competitive Races to Watch" from Real Facts NC - one of the affiliated groups in this network.

The Republicans highlighted in bold match the targets of NC Families First based on their campaign reports at NCSBE.gov.  One can guess that is likely not an accident.  From the analysis completed so far, John Bradford in NC98 appears to be the group's #1 target based on money spent.

With Mecklenburg County and Lake Norman in particular being one of the central battlegrounds for the NC House this election cycle, the money and organization behind this collection of 527 and 501c4 organizations has gone a long way towards what's been happening here locally.

Will it be successful?  We will know in less than a week.

Planned Parenthood's campaign mercenaries on the march locally

The "dark money" behind NC Families First pounding local Republican candidates doesn't just go to buying a hale of flyers or ominous TV ads.  It's also buying an army of paid boots on the ground via Planned Parenthood.

Planned Parenthood uses a front company called Community Outreach Group, LLC to pay canvassers who look like "volunteers" to spread information during campaigns.

Notice the red underline of Action Fund.  So far this campaign season NC Families First has donated $483,500 to Planned Parenthood Action PAC NC for a "Canvassing Program".  This is according to the NC Families First recent IRS filings.

Here's the job posting from the Planned Parenthood connected group for Charlotte looking to hire paid canvassers to get involved in local races.

You will of course notice that the ad makes no mention of the affiliation with Planned Parenthood.  Instead, similar to the flyers put out by NC Families First its focus is I77 tolls.  The group's other ads clearly state it is a part of Planned Parenthood.

No group is at ground zero of the culture war over social issues more than Planned Parenthood.  Does anyone believe they care at all about I77 tolls?

No, of course they don't.  They care about getting people elected to push their social issues agenda.

Who do you think the largest abortion provider in the country will be pushing with this effort?

Will Planned Parenthood push John Bradford who has been endorsed by Kurt Nass and the I77 Business Plan - the leading anti-toll advocates?

Or...

Will Planned Parenthood be pushing Jane Campbell, the candidate endorsed by Lillian's List - the leading abortion rights advocacy group in the state.

You don't have to think too hard on that one now do you?

Update:  Nick Ochsner with WBTV has this story up now on this topic.  Once confronted by a TV reporter, the Planned Parenthood ads related to I77 were taken down.

John Bradford attracts some outside support in race for NC House 98

As aShortChronical has reported on extensively, Rep John Bradford has been the target of a blizzard of flyers paid for by NC Families First - a shadowy outfit funded by big DC money.

Well, it now appears Bradford is finally getting a little outside help as well in the flyer battle for NC98.

In recent days aShortChronicle HQ has received a few flyers from two organizations - "Mainstreet Merchants for a Better North Carolina" and the "NC Realtors"

The Mainstreet flyers hit mailboxes first with the NC Realtor drops occurring at the end of last week.

Here are a few things to notice about these flyers versus the ones from NC Families First.

• These ads are all "support" ads for Bradford, not attack ads hitting his opponent.  In fact, Mainstreet has a history of only running support ads.
• The money spent by these organizations appears to be significantly smaller than that of NC Families First. 
• The money spent looks like it goes NC firms, not those in DC.

Outside money is an unfortunate fact of life in politics these days.  Now, some of it is flowing both ways in the final days of the race for NC98.

#NCGA: Kurt Naas endorses John Bradford in #NC98 House district race

The big DC political money just keeps pouring into the NC House races here locally.

aShortChronicle told you previously about the mailers from NC Families First, a DC funded dark money operation out of Raleigh.  The group had been sending out mailers targeting NC98 Rep John Bradford - hitting hard on the I77 issue.

The group focuses on a vote Bradford took way back when he was a Cornelius Town Commissioner supporting the RFP process for the HOT Lanes project.  This of course ignores the fact that since then, once the RFP concluded and the contract details were known, Bradford has become a strong opponent of the project.  He signed the letter to Gov McCrory from a majority of North Mecklenburg Commissioners asking for a contract delay.  He was also a primary sponsor of HB954 seeking cancellation of the project once it was signed.

His reward for doing the right thing?  Dubious attacks from an outside group.

However, those that know the truth about Bradford's overall efforts in the anti-toll fight appear ready to make that truth known.  Nobody knows the history of that fight better than Kurt Naas.   aShortChronicle has learned Monday morning from Naas that he has personally endorsed John Bradford in this race.

This endorsement should go a long way in righting the wrongs of the flyers sent in support of Bradford's opponent, Jane Campbell.  Naas has been the "face" of the anti-toll fight since the very beginning.  He is the founder of WidenI77.org, the group that initiated the pushback against this ill-conceived plan.  He has spent countless hours over many years researching and presenting the facts of how this project will harm the Lake Norman area.

Naas's opinion matters when it comes to tolls, and this endorsement more than any number of flyers to the contrary should matter to voters.

#NCGA: Big DC money coming after John Bradford

A local pol asked me a couple weeks ago about the finance reports for the candidates in the race for NC House 98.  With only Q2 reports in the system at NCSBE.gov it looked like money might not be a huge factor in the race.

Since the Q2 reports are almost a full quarter behind at this point lots more money has likely flowed in for both candidates by now.

A couple weeks later it seems the big money may not be coming from the campaigns, but from Washington DC instead.

Since that exchange we've seen the beginning of a wave of flyers attacking Bradford from "NC Families First" a 527 dark money outfit out of Raleigh.  One unconfirmed source tells aShortChronicle they had heard there may be a couple dozen of these before election day.  The fact that 3 have already hit since last Wednesday is a good indication that may be true.  In the mechanics of an election, it wouldn't make sense to fire off three of these this far out from election day if you weren't going to keep doing it.

An earlier post mentioned that NC Families First was active in the 2014 campaign, but that there wasn't any information on FollowNCMoney.org for them this cycle.  That's true.

HOWEVER...we here at aShortChronicle are a persistent lot.

527 organizations have to report to the IRS, so it seemed like a good idea to check IRS.gov to see what we could find.

The Q2 reports there for "NC Families First" show the below "contributions" and "expenditures"

CONTRIBUTIONS

EXPENDITURES

By Q2 2016, NC Families First has gotten:

$450k from The Democratic Governors Association...in Washington, DC

$1.475m from NC Citizens for Protecting Our Schools, a group that historically receives most of its cash from the NEA...in Washington, DC.

The oh so innocently named NC Families First has spent:

$620k with Great American Media...an ad company right down K street in...you guessed it...Washington, DC

While it's obvious a lot of this cash will flow to support Roy Cooper in his race against Gov McCrory, a good bit is left to pound other candidates into submission.

Expect the anti-Bradford flyers to keep on coming - funded by Washington cash.

#NCGA: 2nd anti-Bradford mailer from shadowy group hits area mailboxes.

On Wednesday, aShortChronicle told readers about a mailer from NC Families First - a partisan, dark money spending operation with a history of going after Republicans.  The mailer that landed that day went after NC-98 Rep John Bradford on the I77 toll issue.

Well, it turns out that mailer was just the first of a two barrel blast from NC Families First this week with the second one firing on Friday.  Here it is...

NC Families First Mailer

The points made on this second flyer were exactly the same as the ones made in the first, so there's no need to debunk them again here.

HOWEVER...

There was something interesting noticed with this second one.

On Tuesday we told you about the previous flyers mailed in support of Campbell by the Democratic Party of North Carolina.  All of these flyers were Authorized by Campbell and all had some level of focus on the I77 toll issue.  One of those mentioned Bradford specifically.

NC Democrats Mailer

In the bottom left hand corner of both flyers lists the "fact check" references for the statements made.

Here they are up close.  The top is from NC Families First and the bottom is from the NC Democrats.

Notice anything?  Take a good close look.

Four out of six references on each flyer are exactly the same.

Out of all the stories on the I77 issue done over multiple years by various print, TV, and online media outlets these two completely independent operations pick the same four out of six media reports to reference in hit pieces targeting the same person.

One paid for by the Democratic Party and one paid for by a dark money operation with 2014 campaign ties to the "eviscerate" crowd.

Hmmmm...

#NCGA: NC-98 Rep John Bradford about to get "Blueprinted"?

Is the race for NC House 98 about to get ugly?

This spring, Unaffiliated candidate Jane Campbell of Davidson waged a successful petition effort to get on the ballot for the NC98 race after the official filing period for this election cycle was over.  HB2 was what motivated her to get into the contest according to her campaign website. 

Without a candidate of their own the Democrats have jumped in full force behind Campbell.

Over the past couple of weeks1 three different 8x10 mailers from the Democratic Party of North Carolina landed in local mailboxes.  All were in support of Campbell.  Interestingly, only one barely even mentioned HB2.  Instead, all three prominently featured Campbell's stated opposition to the I-77 HOT Lanes project.

That's a testament to the power if that issue locally.  And frankly, it would be surprising if any candidate running for office in LKN didn't use it.

On Wednesday though a fourth mailer arrived.  This one from an outfit called "NC Families First".

Attack Ad Paid for by NC Families First

So, who is NC Families First?

Well according to FollowNCMoney.org it's a dark money group that spent over $2.2 million on 2014 NC State Legislature races - all on ads against Republicans.

The group seems to be an end point of a money trail - meaning it's the one actually buying the ads after the money flows through other groups.

No reports are up on the State campaign finance site for this group this cycle.  But, where did NC Families First get its money in 2014? 

In 2014 it got $1.74 million from "North Carolina Citizens for Protecting Our Schools".  That group got a lot of its money from the NEA and a number of other left leaning organizations.

NC Families First also got $100,000 in 2014 from a group called America Votes.

Who is America Votes?

Well, they would probably not be known to anyone if it were not for their executive director, Jessica Laurenz.  Laurenz penned the now infamous "eviscerate" memo circulated at a Blueprint NC meeting back in early 2013.  That memo single-handedly coined the term "Blueprinting" as a reference to going after Republican candidates by any means necessary.

The dishonesty on display in the most recent ad against Bradford shows where this is likely to go.

It starts with a truth.  Yes, Bradford voted to keep the project alive as a town commissioner in Cornelius.  He also won reelection after doing that.  The ad conveniently let's readers believe Bradford has been a suporter of the project all along.  In fact, once the contract details started to be known inuding the potential toll rates Bradford opposed the project.  He was one of the signers of a letter from a majority of local commissioners asking for the contract to be delayed.  He also helped lead the charge in tbe NC House along with former Rep Charles Jeter to cancel the contract after it was signed.  Finally the ad quotes an article which is largely referencing a letter from NCDOT Sec Nick Tennyson - arguably the most pro-toll bureaucrat in the entire state.

It will be interesting to see who is funding the oh so innocently named "NC Families First" this election cycle.  If it's once again the "eviscerate" crowd the race for NC-98 could be about to get ugly.

Progress on the "Davidson-Concord Speedway"... and about that equipment at Appollinaire

We've been unapologeticly rough on the town recently regarding the speeding issue along this road.  The last post received a little pushback along those lines in the comments.

However, we are glad to see things beginning to happen.

As we mentioned in the update to the last post Rep John Bradford has gotten involved at the state level.  From what we understand that has at least a little something to do with recent encouragement from official Davidson as well.

On Wednesday evening, one day after the Board meeting, Rep John Bradford posted the below on his Facebook page.

"I met with the State's Traffic Engineer today, Kevin Lacy. His department is responsible for establishing speed limits across the state We met in my office to review the Town of Davidson's Resolution. He committed that he would be willing to travel to Davidson to meet with Town officials, Senator Tarte and me. He agree he would personally tour/drive/observe the road to determine if the posted speed limits are still appropriate per NCDOT's speed standards. The next step is he is going to give me some dates of his availability so that we can all coordinate our calendars. For clarity, legislators do not set speed limits but Senator Tarte and I want to help which is why we will coordinate this meeting and site tour. My sincere hope is that a re-evaluation by the head of the department will yield a fresh perspective and lower speed limit. Stay tuned..."

A reader also pointed out something unusual happening right at the site of the videos we posted in this piece.  What got the reader's attention? Some equipment that appeared beside the crosswalk at Appollinaire Drive first seen Wednesday morning.

Here's what Doug Wright, the Public Works and Projects Director, had to say:

"The town contracted with a vendor to provide “before” video footage of the Apollinaire intersection.  The state is installing an RRFB and pedestrian refuge.  Then, we will set up the camera again and get “after” footage.  The footage will be analyzed to determine the effectiveness of the RRFBs – we measure the difference in driver yielding behavior.  The town’s role is to provide

the study."

RRFBs are the flashing beacons like the ones at Robert-Walker Drive. 

While these beacons were mentioned by residents  at the meeting Tuesday as not being all that effective,  every little bit helps.  Yours truly stood at the Appollinaire crossing yesterday and multiple cars passed without stopping.  It will definitely be interesting to see how much these beacons do  (or do not) improve things.

Regardless, it's a very positive sign that things seem to be happening.

Bradford, Jeter not to blame for marriage bill override

The “veto” used to be a powerful weapon in the Governor’s arsenal, but recently it has not been an effective one for North Carolina’s chief executives.  With veto-proof super majorities in both houses of the legislature, the General Assembly now regularly overrides gubernatorial vetoes – sometimes with ease and sometimes only after “gaming the system”.

Last week’s veto override of Senate Bill 2 in the House – a bill which allows magistrates and registrars to “opt out” of performing any marriages if they object to performing same-sex marriages due to a religious objection - definitely falls into the latter category.

Before getting into the details of how the House override occurred, here is a little history on the recent demise of the veto’s power.

Over the last ten sessions of the NCGA there have been 34 gubernatorial vetoes issued.  Sixteen of those vetoes have been overridden.  Fifteen of the sixteen overrides have occurred since the Republicans took over both houses of the legislature after the 2010 elections.  Eleven of the fifteen Republican-led overrides were against Democrat Beverly Perdue.  However, maybe more surprising is that four out of five vetoes from Republican Governor Pat McCrory have also been overridden by the heavily Republican legislature.

This recent history shows where the real power lies in Raleigh.  It’s in the General Assembly, not the Governor’s mansion.  But even with all that power, sometimes the leadership in the legislature has to work at it to achieve the 3/5ths vote, or 60% super majority, in each chamber to snub the Governor.

So, what does all this have to do with local politics?

Well, it just so happens that all three local legislators, Senator Jeff Tarte, and Representatives Charles Jeter and John Bradford all supported the Governor’s opposition to this bill.  All three voted against its initial passage, and Senator Tarte was one of only three Republican Senators to vote against the override in the Senate..

The Senate override however was the easy part.  That vote was 32-16 in favor  – easily surpassing the 60% mark of the members present.  Two of the total 50 senators were absent for that vote.

One would think absent voters would not matter, but in the subsequent NC House vote they would be necessary to ensure a successful override attempt.

In the House override vote last Thursday, 10 members were not present – four Democrats and six Republicans.  That dropped the total number of “yes” votes required to 66.  Those favoring overriding the governor had 69 votes in their pocket, so a vote was called and the bill was overridden.

As soon as the vote occurred Thursday morning, attention turned to those who were absent which allowed for the smaller number of votes required.  That attention – particularly on the political left - quickly focused on the three Republicans who voted against the original bill but who were not on hand last Thursday to vote against the override.  Two of those three Republicans were local Reps Charles Jeter and John Bradford.

The questions being asked in cyberspace implied the Republican no-shows deliberately sandbagged the vote by not showing up and thus allowed the override to succeed.  The implication was that they had not stood by their original votes.  After all, last Thursday was the first excused absence this legislative session for each of them.  It seemed suspicious.

Unfortunately for those critics, the math doesn't support their position.

Everything else being equal, even if Jeter, Bradford and fellow Republican Rep Jon Hardister who all voted against the original bill had been on hand last Thursday, the override would have still been successful.  Or put another way, their absence did not cause it to pass.

Rep Jeter was out with a stomach bug.  He says he would have been there, but knew his vote would not have altered the outcome.  Rep Bradford knew new was going to be out that day and let the Governor know in advance that his opposition to the bill had not changed.

But what about the other absent members?

There were also four Democrats and three other Republicans not present last Thursday.  After analyzing their previous votes, it appears this override likely would have occurred even if the full House membership had been present.  If all of the other absent members had been present and voted the same way they did when the bill passed originally, the vote would have been 72 – 48 – or exactly 60%.

That however might have been too close for comfort for those wanting the override to succeed, so they waited until the odds were in their favor.  In doing so, they gave a lesson in power-politics and dealt another blow to the power of the veto.

Debate #2 for NC-98 This Thursday at River Run

Last Thursday saw Democrat Natasha Marcus and Republican John Bradford face off for the first time in the race to succeed Thom Tillis in the NC-98 House seat in the NCGA.

The next day an attack add from the Bradford Campaign hit mailboxes.  The mailer took an interesting approach by linking Ms Marcus to President Barack Obama.  That might seem like a tactic more fitting for a Federal race than one at the State level, but Ms Marcus did lead the local chapter of Organizing for Action in support of the Obama campaign.

Maybe there will be some fireworks as Ms Marcus pushes back?  Attend this Thursday to see in person.  The details are in the below press release.

========================

A ‘Meet the Candidates’ Forum scheduled in Davidson, NC on Thursday, October 16, 2014

Residents in Davidson, NC and surrounding communities are invited to participate in a ‘Meet the Candidates’ forum, Thursday evening, October 16, 2014 at 7:00 PM at the River Run Golf and Country Club Ballroom located at 19125 River Falls Drive, Davidson, NC, 28036. The event may cover Federal, State, and County races and many key issues, such as transportation, education, State and Federal budgets and economic development. This event will be held just seven days before early voting begins, so it could be an excellent way to hear from the candidates prior to casting a vote.

Come early and stay late to dialogue one-on-one with those willing to serve and represent you in Charlotte, Raleigh, and Washington, DC. This will be an excellent opportunity to hear from the candidates about their plans for the future. 

The format will include a moderator and time keeper so that each candidate has an opportunity to respond to participant’s questions. Prior to the 7:00 PM start, index cards will be provided to record questions by the participants and to allow the moderator an opportunity to plan and pose the questions to all candidates during the forum.

We encourage everyone to attend this event.

Sponsored by the River Run Property Owners Association, Government Affairs Committee. Questions: Jim Copio / jcopio@att.net / 704-892-7573

Dollars and disillusionment in our elections. Are our public offices simply for sale?

It has been two weeks since primary election night, and in that time I've seen multiple emails and web comments from conservative activists throwing in the towel on the Republican party.  Numerous party registrations are supposedly being changed.  While I'm not there - yet, there is this unsettled feeling I can't shake.  That feeling is summed by the following question.

Are our public offices, simply for sale to the highest bidder?  

Or, more specifically is money the most important thing in our elections - trumping positions and support from the grass roots?

The last couple of Republican Primary election cycles here in North Carolina and the Charlotte area specifically give those questions legitimacy.  In fact local political consultant, Larry Shaheen, seemed to say as much to the Washington Post the day before the most recent primaries. After predicting a Thom Tillis win and surpassing the 40% threshold to avoid a runoff (a prediction that turned out to be true).  Larry Shaheen said this...

"In North Carolina, what everyone always forgets is that grass roots will not carry you over the finish line," said Shaheen. "It will help you get to the starting line and push you over it."

The main difference in US Senate primary according to the Washington Post article was simply the money the Tillis Campaign raised.  That sentiment is backed up by this article in National Journal showing that Thom Tillis was in a tight contest with Greg Brannon and Mark Harris in January.  By April after an avalanche of outside money poured in from Karl Rove and Mitch McConnell, he had a big lead. 

From NationalJournal.com... 

"The goal was simple: Increase Tillis's low name identification, knowing his opponents wouldn't have the resources to fight back. In January, the group commissioned a survey from veteran GOP pollster Jan van Lohuizen showing Tillis only tallying 16 percent in the crowded field, with 60 percent of Republican voters unsure of their choice. Just over one-quarter of North Carolina GOP voters were familiar with Tillis. But in the middle of their advertising blitz in late April, another poll commissioned by Crossroads and conducted by van Lohuizen found Tillis's name identification had shot up to 66 percent, with him tallying 38 percent of the primary vote. That same poll showed only about one-third of voters familiar with Brannon and Harris."

Think about that for a minute.  Thom Tillis, one of the top 3 politicians in the state, has name ID at only 25% among his own party a few short months before the election.  That's a sad enough statement on the state our electorate.  Then the adds pour in and he wins simply because people know who he is and don't know the other candidates.  In that scenario issues don't even really matter.  That's the truly pathetic part.

And there are other examples of the overwhelming influence of big money on our local races.

In the 2012 cycle, the Republican primary election for the ninth Congressional District (NC-9) saw a similar influence of big money.  Robert Pittenger spent more personal money that just about anybody in the country in that election - dumping about $2 million into the congressional primary against his nearest contender - former Mecklenburg County Sheriff Jim Pendergraph.

Robert Pittenger actually received a fine for one of his personal donations to his campaign when a donation made right before the first primary was not reported correctly.  See this story from Roll Call for the complete details.

A freshman Congressman has paid a $31,000 fine for a campaign finance disclosure violation in his first federal election. But the fine was a relatively small amount for the 13th richest member of Congress.

The campaign committee of Rep. Robert Pittenger, R-N.C., failed to file a 48-hour contribution notice prior to his May 8th primary election in 2012. The pre-election notice would have disclosed Pittenger’s own $309,000 contribution to his campaign on April 26, 2012. Pittenger failed to win the primary outright, but ranked first with 32% of the vote in the eleven-candidate field. In the July 12th primary run-off, Pittenger beat former Mecklenburg County sheriff James Pendergraph.

The Federal Election Commission required the Pittenger for Congress LLC to pay a $31,010 civil penalty, which included $110 for one notice not filed, plus 10% of the overall contributions not filed. The fine was paid on February 21, 2013.

In that same primary, Jim Pendergraph only committed $21,322 of personal money to his campaign. 

Think about that one for a minute.

Robert Pittenger paid a fine on just a small portion of the funds he committed to the race and that fine was 150% of the entire amount of money his opponent was able to commit.

The difference in this race was that the big money was personal money, rather than outside spending.  However, the result was the same. Here's how it played out in the 2nd primary runoff-- Pendergraph actually won Mecklenburg county where his long tenure as Sheriff gave him high name recognition, but Pittenger swamped him in Iredell and Union counties.  In both the first and second primaries, Pittenger flooded mailboxes and the airwaves in a way the Pendergraph campaign simply couldn't match.  He ended up eking out a close victory

Personal money also played a major role in the recent campaign to replace Thom Tillis in the Legislature.  John Bradford has already loaned his campaign $160,000 for this election cycle and spent a whopping $100,000 battling it out to a big win for the Republican nomination for NC-98.  According to campaign finance reports, he appears to be the only candidate in the primary who paid for TV time, and his campaign signs were ubiquitous.

In both of these campaigns it appears personal money was a driving force in the victory whether the race turned out to be a close one or a landslide.  In both cases the candidates were running in safe Republican districts so all of this money was spent against other Republicans in primaries.

Incidentally, Larry Shaheen is on the Bradford Campaign payroll according to campaign finance reports, so it appears the campaign has taken Mr Shaheen's comments about money trumping grassroots to heart.

I'm not naïve enough to think money isn't important in political campaigns.  It obviously is.  However, these recent campaigns all signal that it's the most important thing.  As an activist who likes to think hard work matters and influencing voters through personal connections can make a difference, that's a hard pill to swallow.

Some dubious sign location choices by the Bradford Campaign

Campaign signs began popping up this weekend, and John Bradford's campaign for NC House 98 found some interesting locations in Davidson.  Interesting for their boldness as well as the less than likely odds of them lasting very long.  Were they chosen to make a point?  Or were they just placed by someone without much experience placing campaign signs in Davidson?

Here are a few fine examples:



In front of River Run...this one might survive..a while.



Sign at Davdison Concord Rd Roundabout
(Give this one another day before it's picked up by Public Works)

Sign removed from the edge of
Davidson's Town Green
by Town Manger Leamon Brice
(This poor sign had no chance at all.)
 

Hudson Files for NC House 98

Thursday afternoon, things got a little more interesting here in North Mecklenburg in the race for the Republican nomination for NC House 98.

Conservative activist Sharon Hudson of Huntersville filed for office today seeking the Republican nomination in the race to replace Thom Tillis in the Legislature - bringing the total to three candidates on the Republican side.

Hudson is a founder of the new Lake Norman Conservatives activist group, and she has been active in Republican Party politics in the local area.  Last year she was involved in many of the efforts opposing the HOT Lanes project for widening I77 including the efforts to get a resolution opposing HOT lanes passed at the MeckGOP convention and getting a plank added to the NCGOP party platform opposing the toll lanes.

In the primary race Hudson faces John Bradford and Lynette Rinker of Cornelius.  Both Rinker and Bradford served as elected officials during last year's raging debate on the HOT lanes project - casting crucial local votes in support of the effort.

Even though anti-toll candidates generally came up short during the 2013 election cycle, a three way race where this is an issue once again could yield some excitement.  A split "establishment" vote between Bradford and Rinker opens up the possibility that no candidate gets to 40% of the vote in the May primary.  That would force a high-stakes, mid-summer, run-off in a low turn out second primary.

If Ms. Hudson makes it into a run-off as the sole anti-toll candidate, it could be a real toss-up and anyone's guess how that will turn out.

NC House 98 Fundraising: Abortion and Big Dollars Top Stories

The first round of campaign finance reports came in last week for the race to replace Thom Tillis in NC House District 98, and as usual when you follow the money some interesting things pop up.

On Democratic Party side of the race, Davidson resident Natasha Marcus reports a very respectable sum of $47,379.03 in total receipts with $39,435.95 on hand.  This comes from a donor base of over 140 including some Davidson politicos - Commissioner Rodney Graham, Former Commissioner Margo Williams, and Former Davidson Mayor Randall Kincaid. Notably, the total receipts includes only a $500 loan from the candidate, so if Ms. Marcus decides to put in any sizable amount of her own money she will certainly have enough to remain competitive financially.

Most of Marcus's donations came from the local area or from what appear to be family members, but one donation stood out - a $2528 contribution from the campaign committee of former State Senator Eleanor Kinnaird (D-Chatham, Orange).  A little research reveals that Sen Kinnaird has long been supported by Lillian's List - North Carolina's leading lobbying group opposing restrictions on abortion.  The group is modeled off of Emily's List, the national group that is Kay Hagan's largest supporter.  Here's how the organization describes itself on its website.

"Lillian’s List of NC is a statewide community of individuals who work to recruit, train, promote and support pro-choice progressive women running for public office in North Carolina. We are modeled after EMILY’s List and provide financial, strategic, and political support to women serving in the state legislature and the Council of State. We also strategically recruit new candidates committed to reproductive freedom and equality for women."  

The site also states that during the last election cycle Lillian's List and its supporters funneled over $250,000 to its favored list of candidates.  When Senator Kinnaird liquidated her campaign fund after resigning her office last year, the last two donations went to two other candidate campaign committees, those for Natasha Marcus in NC98 and Kim Hanchette NC49 - the two candidates currently highlighted on Lillian's List.

It remains to be seen if abortion will be a major issue in the NC98 race, but this donation combined with others from Lillian's List fundraisers and member donors likely will make this interest group the largest combined donor group to the Marcus campaign.

On the Republican side, the big story is the huge campaign war chest Cornelius Commissioner John Bradford has amassed - $154,000.  Yes, you read that right!  What makes this interesting is that it comes almost entirely in the form of a personal loan from Bradford to his campaign.  Certainly, the campaign will be bringing in quite a few donations, but at this point it's almost all Bradford's own money.

Self-funding of campaigns is not uncommon.  For example, when Thom Tillis ran for this same seat in 2006, he loaned his campaign a total of just over $100,000 out of total fundraising of around $150,000.  What makes the Bradford loan different is that he's loaning the money all at one time.  Tillis loaned the money in eight different installments over the course of the campaign.

And that's where things get even more interesting.  It appears Bradford may have been originally planning on taking that same approach of loaning money in chunks, but changed his mind.  According to the filing documents, Bradford loaned his campaign $10,000 on Christmas Eve.  However, the documents also show that the loan was repaid the same day.  Then, on December 26th, Bradford made the much larger $150,000 loan.  The information about the original $10,000 loan did not show up in the campaign finance reports until the report filed this past Monday, February 4th.  In the original paperwork filed by the campaign back in December, it looked like a single loan had been made when in fact there had been two.

So, why the change of mind?  Two possible explanations come to mind.

1.  $10,000 doesn't scare anybody in politics.  On the other hand, $150,000 sends a message.  For example, Bradford's only announced Republican opponent, former Cornelius Mayor Lynette Rinker, has only $3000 on hand according to her campaign finance reports for the same period.  Who knows? Bradford's war chest, might scare her off from even filing if it's clear she can't compete financially.

2.  Bradford likely has strong expectations of future fundraising, and maybe he expects to be able to pay himself back quickly during the campaign.  He has already lined up an impressive list of endorsements from elected officials, and he appears to be running an extensive campaign.  It's possible that he has been well assured of getting back some of his money sooner rather than later.  Again by comparison, it took Thom Tillis's campaign until 2013 to pay back just $50,000 of the loans he made his campaign.

Big-money is a big part of big-time politics.  Where that money comes from and how much is spent frequently drives campaign issues and the outcomes.  In this very Republican leaning district according to the latest Civitas Partisan Index, how this plays out will be something to watch.

With Filing Still a Month Off, North Meck NCGA Candidates Make Announcements

This past week saw announcements from local candidates regarding this year's NCGA elections.  With just a few weeks left before filing begins, things are sure to get interesting as the State and Federal election cycles ramp up.

On Tuesday, State Senator Jeff Tarte (Rep) sent out an email blast announcing a long list of endorsements - including endorsements from three Davidson Commissioners - Brian Jenest, Beth Cashion, and Stacey Anderson.  See here for the announcement and complete list. 

Not all that surprising is the absence from the list of Mayor Woods, Commissioners Graham, and Commissioner Fuller.  If they were to endorse anyone in the upcoming general election cycle for the NCGA, I'd put my money on Democrat and Davidson local, Natasha Marcus, in the NC House 98 race to replace Thom Tillis.  All three were pictured here at the campaign kick-off event in Davidson for Ms. Marcus with Mayor Woods doing the candidate introduction.  Interestingly, Mayor Woods was listed as a "supporter" of Republican John Bradford in this announcement regarding his recent Cornelius campaign, but he's missing from the list of elected officials endorsing Bradford for the NC-98 race.

Speaking of the NC-98 race and John Bradford, Bradford's campaign announced an important appointment this week.  Joshua Dobi will chair Bradford's election campaign committee.  That name may sound familiar to readers of this blog.  When Bradford announced his intention to run for this seat, we pointed out that local businessman Joshua Dobi had strongly urged voters to support Bradford in his recent run for Cornelius Town Board.

On Bradford's campaign site, ElectBradford.com, the campaign says of Dobi's selection to chair the campaign committee...

"Choosing a CEO in a successful Lake Norman area business is a calculated decision"

Seems like there are a lot of "calculated decisions" going on.  Then again, this is politics.

A house divided...

cannot stand is the saying.

While I don't think that saying really applies to the Republican Party here in North Mecklenburg, things are going to get very messy over the next few months.

Tuesday saw the announcement of a new group forming in the area called Lake Norman Conservatives.  The group's first event is ambitious - a candidate forum for the US Senate race.  Three of the five announced candidates are apparently confirmed, but that list does not include Speaker Thom Tillis of Cornelius.  I'd be surprised if he does.

This new group has its genesis in the controversy over toll roads - a controversy that has its roots in the actions of our elected officials - primarily Republicans. (See here, here, and here for just a few examples.)  Those actions were bound to ultimately end in this result - a division within the ranks of the conservative movement in the area.  Regardless of what happens from here on out, people need to remember where the blame really lies for that.

There are good, committed people on both sides of this dividing line, and I hate to see them lining up against each other.

Wednesday saw the entry of recently re-elected Cornelius Commissioner John Bradford into the NC House 98 race to represent North Mecklenburg in the NC Legislature.  This is the second time in two election cycles where a Cornelius elected official announced plans to run for a higher office immediately after a municipal election cycle - the other time being when then newly re-elected Mayor Tarte jumped into the primary for NC Senate 41.  Tarte was successful and maybe Bradford will be too.  However, if I was a Cornelius voter I'd be pretty annoyed with my Town Board repeatedly being seen as a stepping stone to higher office.

During the last campaign when Bradford was the target of the "Fire Bradford" signs posted by the Widen I77 activist group, the campaign pushed back by releasing a long list of endorsements.  One of those endorsers had this to say...

Local businessman Joshua Dobi, expressed concern if Bradford were not to be re-elected. “Considering the amount of turnover we have had on the Commission this year I would be very worried if John Bradford were not to be re-elected to the Cornelius Town Commission. His service is vital to the health of our town government. 

Apparently, Bradford does not share that same "worry".

Expect to see comments coming out of the Bradford camp like "this just came up", or "people started asking me to run" etc, etc.  Do not believe them.  The rumor that Bradford was thinking of running has been circulating for a while now.  The first bit of evidence received here was less than ten days after the last election.  Also, comments by the other announced Republican in the race, Lynette Rinker, make it sound like she might have had the inside scoop a while ago.  In hindsight, her references in her campaign announcement to being "a full-time legislator and working for you will be my only job” may be an attempt differentiate herself from Bradford who owns a real estate management business.

This race will be interesting to watch, but frankly, as a conservative, neither announced candidate excites me all that much.  The biggest local issue this year has been the widening of I77 with tolls and both of these candidates come down on the wrong side of that issue.  They are in the same camp as the person who they are trying to replace - Speaker Thom Tillis.  It's hard to see many of the local activists I know supporting either of them enthusiastically.  What would make it more interesting is if a third candidate jumps into the race.

I can think of a few people who I'd like to see, but unfortunately, there is no chatter, swirl, rumor or innuendo to report on the possibility of that.