Questionable Tactics in “Education” Tax Campaign

The size of the defeat for the “education” sales tax referendum in Tuesday’s election likely surprised many in Mecklenburg County Tuesday night.  Whether you supported it or opposed it, it’s doubtful too many thought the margin would be over 20 points. (38.8% For, 61.2% Against to be exact.)

As someone who longs for transparent and honest government, it was very disappointing and hard to watch how this sales tax referendum unfolded from beginning to end.  There were several troubling aspects which taken together make it feel like it was the right thing that this did not pass.

Was this a process that had community buy-in from the start?  No.  The Chamber of Commerce and even the School Board were taken off guard when the County Commissioners decided to put the tax on the ballot in a split 5-4 vote - mostly along party lines.

Was a sales tax the best way to fund CMS salaries long-term?  No.  It is too variable a revenue stream.  What happens when the next economic downturn hits?   Would those raises turn into pay cuts when sales tax revenue dips as it always does during a recession?  Would the other organizations slated to receive funds from this tax face cuts to keep CMS salaries from falling?  Too many outstanding questions were left unanswered.

Was the tax even a guaranteed source of revenue for education?  No.  While supporters of the tax claimed during the course of the debate that it would always be for education, the truth is that a future Board could have redirected this money to anything.  This tax revenue would have been general revenue and not legally tied to education spending.  The reason the ballot question on Tuesday did not mention education was that this was not an “education” tax.  Those who supported the tax were anything but clear on this fact.

This last point came up at the candidate forum at River Run in Davidson.   The candidates for NC House - 98 were asked whether or not they supported the tax increase. Republican John Bradford said he did not - citing this lack of a guarantee as his reason why.  Democrat Natasha Marcus who supported the tax shot back that Bradford's stance was a "dodge". The truth is that Bradford was right.

But maybe the hardest thing to watch was how public institutions targeted to benefit from this tax, danced right up to the line on what was legal for them to do in promoting its passage.  On more than one occasion they did things which were questionable and possibly over the line while pushing for the tax.  In addition to a small body of case law, there are two general statutes in North Carolina that govern what can and cannot be done by public institutions regarding elections – including referendums.  One set of laws is about spending public money.  The other is about “electioneering” around polling places. 

G.S. 160A-499.3 states “a municipality shall not use public funds to endorse or oppose a referendum, election or a particular candidate for elective office.”  G.S. §163-166.4(a) states “No person or group of persons shall hinder access, harass others, distribute campaign literature, place political advertising, solicit votes, or otherwise engage in election-related activity in the voting place or in a buffer zone.”

At some point both of these laws were bent well past their breaking point by our public institutions and officials, but since nobody will likely challenge them in court nothing will be done about it.  A cynic would say our public institutions know that they will not be challenged in an expensive court case, so they have no fear of stepping out of bounds when it suits their needs.

The library system and CMS created fliers that indirectly promoted passing the tax.  They technically stayed within bounds and did not explicitly encourage voting for the tax.  However, both fliers certainly implied bad things would happen if it did not pass.  The Library was challenged on the placement of its fliers inside facilities that also served as early voting sites.  To avoid running afoul of the electioneering law these were removed – a sign the library knew they were pushing the legal limits.

The Arts and Science Council and the Town of Davidson went even further.  They both explicitly encouraged voting for the tax in materials they created.  The ASC had multiple posts on its website encouraging people to vote for the tax.  Davidson Mayor John Woods was encouraging the same in the town’s latest newsletter which came out late last week just prior to election-day.  It’s hard to see how the ASC’s actions do not break rules governing non-profits.  The same could be said about Davidson’s use of a publicly funded newsletter to encourage passing the tax.

As County officials go back to the drawing board on the question of funding education, the size of this defeat as well as the actions of these institutions need to be taken into account when deciding how to do it.  Using questionable, strong-arm tactics to raise revenue has proven not to work.  Maybe now it’s time for Commissioners to figure out how to live within the County’s existing means. 

Bonus Observation: Check out this interactive map for where the sales tax actually passed.  It's telling that Davidson precinct 206 was one of the few precincts where it succeeded (just barely).  Overall it, still failed for the two town precincts, but Davidson was closer as a municipality than any other in Mecklenburg County.  

Having the Mayor use public funds to tell everyone to go vote for something likely made the difference.

The Most Important, Least Known Races on Your Ballot Next Tuesday

For the first time in sixteen years a majority of the North Carolina Supreme Court faces election on the same day.  This Tuesday four of the seven seats are up for grabs - a situation brought about by a random combination of retirements, appointments and the regular election cycle.

Conservative judges Barbara Jackson, Robert Edmunds, and Paul Newby are not up for election this cycle. If you want to vote for judges to give them some additional support, then choose:

Mark Martin for Chief Justice and Bob Hunter, Eric Levinson, and Mike Robinson for Associate Justices on election day.

Judgepedia.org has all the details on the races.  It's worth checking out the whole page beyond the below excerpt.

From Judgepedia.org...

North Carolina's judicial elections are technically non-partisan. However, it is a state where the justices' political affiliations are clearly known and political parties may publicly endorse candidates. Currently, the Supreme Court of North Carolina has five Republicans and two Democrats on its bench. In 2014, four seats are up for election, meaning that a majority of the seven-member court is up for grabs.

Three Democratic seats and one Republican seat were initially up for election this year. Two of those seats--the chief justice position and Justice Martin's open seat--were given new, Republican incumbents thanks to appointments by Governor Pat McCrory in August 2014. That resulted in the chief justice position changing from a Democratic incumbent (Sarah Parker, who retired) to a Republican incumbent (Mark Martin, who is running for a full term in 2014). Going into the November elections, two seats are occupied by Republicans and two by Democrats.

A partisan flip is not possible, even though a majority of the court's seats are up for election, because it would require Democrats to win all four seats and there are no Democrats in the race for chief justice.

Republicans, on the other hand, have a chance to monopolize the court if they can oust Justices Cheri Beasley and Robin Hudson. North Carolina is already a Republican-dominated state, where the GOP holds the governorship, a majority in both legislative houses and a majority on the supreme court. This is referred to as a Trifecta Plus by Ballotpedia. A court fully controlled by the Republicans would be favorable to the similarly controlled executive and legislative branches if any of their new laws are challenged in court. More information on state government trifectas is available here: Ballotpedia: State government trifectas.

Thom TIllis's "Conservative" Problem

I recently received an interesting email blast from a former lower-level MeckGOP official in North Mecklenburg asking a former high ranking MeckGOP official for evidence of Speaker Thom Tillis's conservative credentials.  This evidence was being sought to assuage the concerns of a Triad area friend regarding Speaker Tillis's conservative bona fides to be the NCGOP nominee to take on Kay Hagan in the looming US Senate contest.

You see, this Triad area voter had concerns about Speaker Tillis.  The Speaker had not appeared at a recent candidate forum put on by a party organization.  There were also concerns about whether or not his conservative convictions were strong enough.  Would he just go-along to get along if he makes it to Washington?  That's what this voter wanted to know. 

The response?  The former high ranking MeckGOP official simply forwarded copy pulled from the Thom Tillis for Senate campaign site.  This was sent with the now standard encouragement that Thom Tillis is the best candidate to take on Kay Hagan this November.

What does this anecdote tell us?  A few things come to mind. 

First, it's not a great sign if establishment party officials have to dig around for evidence to support their candidate and the best they can come up with is copy from a campaign site.  That's not likely to convince an incredulous voter.

Second, it's some hard evidence that the Speaker constantly missing these small forums across the state is something people notice.  It does impact their decision making.  And, it might prove fatal particularly if this contest heads to a run-off. 

Third, when combined with recent polling data, this anecdote is just one more data point that shows the Speaker has a real problem with at least a portion of the conservative NCGOP base. 

Recent polling by Public Policy Polling and Survey USA shows a consistent theme.  In the GOP primary, there seems to be a strong vein of “anybody but Tillis” in the likely electorate.  Even though Thom Tillis enjoys high name recognition among the GOP faithful, raises more money from deep pocketed sources, and possesses the support of the national GOP establishment, he has been unable to break away from the pack in these polls.  

The combined totals for the other candidates double the Speaker’s totals with a large contingent of undecideds still in the mix.  These other candidates regularly campaign to the right of the Speaker, so their combined totals have significance – especially if this contest heads into a run-off.

The Tillis Campaign has been relatively cautious by not aggressively attacking his primary opponents.  He'll need their supporters if he is ultimately the GOP candidate.  However, there is another tidbit in these polls that shows winning over some of these folks may be an uphill climb no matter what.

Most of these polls also asked about head to head match ups against Kay Hagan. In all of them that did, there is a strong "anybody but Hagan" block - averaging around 40% to 45% of the general election population.  However, among the leading GOP candidates, Thom Tillis is the one who more often trails Hagan in head to head match ups. (Hagan bests Tillis in 2 of the 3 polls) In the most recent PPP poll he is the only Republican from the entire GOP field trailing Hagan.  All of these are within the margin of error, but that consistency in trailing Hagan may indicate that the Speaker is not carrying all of the "anybody but Hagan" block.

Finally, there is evidence that all of this is getting to the establishment, and they are beginning to react.  The most obvious example is Governor McCrory's recent endorsement/non-endorsement of the Speaker to the Washington Post.  Governor McCrory called Tillis the "most viable" Republican to take on Hagan.  (Note: McCrory splits hairs and doesn't call this an endorsement.  Readers can decide for themselves.)  The poll numbers say otherwise, and the Governor is certainly entitled to his opinion like everyone else.  However, there are two problems with this endorsement.

What happens if the Speaker is ultimately not the GOP candidate?  How does the Governor believably support the Republican nominee when he's on record saying someone else was the "most viable"?  McCrory's endorsement actually hurts the general election GOP candidate if the nominee is not Tillis.  The Hagan campaign will have a field day with that.

Also, it's questionable how much a McCrory endorsement helps Tillis with the most conservative in the GOP base for the primary.  Many conservatives have the same problems with the Governor that they have with the Speaker.

Add to that, comments like the recent one from NC Senator Bob Rucho (R-Meck) saying the establishment money will only follow Tillis in the general and not the other GOP hopefuls, and you might begin to think the establishment only cares about getting their guy elected. Sabotaging other GOP candidates in the general is an acceptable price to pay in the attempt to win the primary. 

That's something to remember the next time you hear demands for party unity above all else.

Buckle up!  The next month of this campaign could get bumpy.

A house divided...

cannot stand is the saying.

While I don't think that saying really applies to the Republican Party here in North Mecklenburg, things are going to get very messy over the next few months.

Tuesday saw the announcement of a new group forming in the area called Lake Norman Conservatives.  The group's first event is ambitious - a candidate forum for the US Senate race.  Three of the five announced candidates are apparently confirmed, but that list does not include Speaker Thom Tillis of Cornelius.  I'd be surprised if he does.

This new group has its genesis in the controversy over toll roads - a controversy that has its roots in the actions of our elected officials - primarily Republicans. (See here, here, and here for just a few examples.)  Those actions were bound to ultimately end in this result - a division within the ranks of the conservative movement in the area.  Regardless of what happens from here on out, people need to remember where the blame really lies for that.

There are good, committed people on both sides of this dividing line, and I hate to see them lining up against each other.

Wednesday saw the entry of recently re-elected Cornelius Commissioner John Bradford into the NC House 98 race to represent North Mecklenburg in the NC Legislature.  This is the second time in two election cycles where a Cornelius elected official announced plans to run for a higher office immediately after a municipal election cycle - the other time being when then newly re-elected Mayor Tarte jumped into the primary for NC Senate 41.  Tarte was successful and maybe Bradford will be too.  However, if I was a Cornelius voter I'd be pretty annoyed with my Town Board repeatedly being seen as a stepping stone to higher office.

During the last campaign when Bradford was the target of the "Fire Bradford" signs posted by the Widen I77 activist group, the campaign pushed back by releasing a long list of endorsements.  One of those endorsers had this to say...

Local businessman Joshua Dobi, expressed concern if Bradford were not to be re-elected. “Considering the amount of turnover we have had on the Commission this year I would be very worried if John Bradford were not to be re-elected to the Cornelius Town Commission. His service is vital to the health of our town government. 

Apparently, Bradford does not share that same "worry".

Expect to see comments coming out of the Bradford camp like "this just came up", or "people started asking me to run" etc, etc.  Do not believe them.  The rumor that Bradford was thinking of running has been circulating for a while now.  The first bit of evidence received here was less than ten days after the last election.  Also, comments by the other announced Republican in the race, Lynette Rinker, make it sound like she might have had the inside scoop a while ago.  In hindsight, her references in her campaign announcement to being "a full-time legislator and working for you will be my only job” may be an attempt differentiate herself from Bradford who owns a real estate management business.

This race will be interesting to watch, but frankly, as a conservative, neither announced candidate excites me all that much.  The biggest local issue this year has been the widening of I77 with tolls and both of these candidates come down on the wrong side of that issue.  They are in the same camp as the person who they are trying to replace - Speaker Thom Tillis.  It's hard to see many of the local activists I know supporting either of them enthusiastically.  What would make it more interesting is if a third candidate jumps into the race.

I can think of a few people who I'd like to see, but unfortunately, there is no chatter, swirl, rumor or innuendo to report on the possibility of that.

Pivotal Week in 2014 NC US Senate Campaign Fundraising

It's probably too early in the 2014 race for US Senate to be using words like "pivotal", but a week from this week ends the 2nd quarter fund raising period and when the numbers come out, it could have a significant impact on the Republican primary election for NC Senate nearly 11 months away.

Like it or not, running for the US Senate requires a lot of money and much of that comes from outside groups.  Those groups look at a candidate's own fundraising as an important barometer of potential success.  If a candidate can raise money on his own, then it becomes much more likely these outside organizations will lend their support, and that's why this week is important..

With only Dr Greg Brannon and Speaker Thom Tillis as announced candidates for the Republican nomination, pundits, the campaigns, and those various outside groups will be pouring over the results and making decisions.  For Dr Brannon a solid report would greatly improve the likelihood a group like Americans for Prosperity, the Senate Conservatives Fund, or even the Club for Growth could get into the campaign on his behalf.  For Speaker Tillis it will show if his typically robust fundraising has kept pace or fallen off.

For sure, if any outside money comes into the contest to support the Brannon campaign, that would significantly change the future dynamics of the race and show belief that recent polling and the results of the NCGOP Convention straw poll may have long-term legs.  It would also help counter the large sums of money Speaker Tillis has been collecting from the payday lending and sweepstakes gaming lobbies.

To help the Brannon Campaign reach its goal and possibly generate some of that nationwide help, various grassroots groups are organizing a moneybomb this week as a final push before the fundraising period ends.  How that pans out will be interesting to watch.

North Carolina US Senate candidates appearing in North Meck next week.

For those of you who won't get enough GOP politics at this weekend's NCGOP convention in Charlotte, there are a couple of events early next week that may interest you.  Both announced GOP candidates for the 2014 US Senate race will be appearing in North Meck early next week.  Both events should be interesting coming on the heals of the convention.

Monday, June 10th 6:30 - 9:00pm

Dr Greg Brannon will host a meet and greet at "On the Roxx" in Cornelius.

19712 1 Norman Blvd
Ste 100
Cornelius, NC 28031

See the Facebook invite here.

Tuesday, June 11th  6:00pm

Rep.Thom Tillis will be the guest speaker at the North Mecklenburg Republican Women monthly meeting.

15801 Northstone Drive
Huntersville, NC 28078

See the Facebook invite here.

The Electoral Politics of Widening I-77

Politics is a numbers game - always has been, always will be.

But the numbers behind the politics of widening I-77 are not just the ones you read about in the papers.  They aren't just about spending over $500,000,000 dollars to add lanes to less than 30 miles of road.  It's not just the 20, 30, or 40 years the pro-toll side tells citizens they will have to wait if this project does not go forward as currently planned using tolls.  It's not just the zero other options they say exist.

In many ways those numbers are just sound and fury signifying nothing.  If you've attended more than one of the numerous debates, discussions, and presentations that have been held around the area or read any of the countless articles published by all types of media, you'll realize these numbers are always changing.  They are moving targets and nobody really knows the true answer to many of the questions asked.

There are numbers though that are very real and may ultimately drive the final decision, or at least influence how some of our local leaders behave on the road to getting there.  Those numbers are 1023, 242, and 8.6.

Here's the hard reality of our coming election cycles.  Our North Mecklenburg members of the General Assembly, all of them Republicans, should all have some reasonable concern that if they end up on the wrong side of this issue it could cut short their tenures in Raleigh or shoot down their attempts at higher office.  With House Speaker and North Mecklenburg representative, Thom Tillis, finally announcing his entry into the 2014 US Senate race this week, it's time to take a look at what the HOT Lanes decision could mean when it comes to our elections.

So what about those numbers?

1023. That's the margin of victory for Charles Jeter in his close race for the newly created NC-92 legislative district.  It is one of only a handful of truly swing districts in the state.  If he supports HOT lanes, he will lose votes in North Mecklenburg, his base.  Will he lose enough to cost him reelection if he faces a half-decent Democrat as a challenger?  Who knows?  Does he want to risk it?  His recent actions are inconclusive.

This legislative session, Rep Jeter submitted bill H157, one of his first, that would limit the use of transportation funds to transportation projects.  The bill met the crossover deadline, and he has heavily promoted his support of the bill making sure everyone is aware of his desire to spend our road money wisely.  He spoke about the bill at the February LKN Chamber "Focus Friday" gathering.  His comments at the Chamber also indicated that he might be open to considering other options on I-77, or that at least he had not made up his mind on the project.  He seemed to be really trying to reassure people he's not a full-blown supporter of the current plan for tolls on I-77.

Here's the thing.  It won't work...not unless he comes down firmly in the camp opposing the project. Saying you are not a strong supporter of a project is not the same as saying you oppose a project.    Unless, he actively opposes the I-77 HOT Lanes project, he loses votes.  Period.  Unfortunately, Rep Jeter missed his best opportunity recently to actually oppose the project when he voted against the amendment to H267 which would have required the legislature to vote on toll projects before implementation.  See H267: Redux - NC House really, really, really doesn't want to vote on tolling you for the details on that vote.

Actions speak louder than words, and in this case Rep Jeter chose not to take an action that matches his words.

The next number is 242, as in Cornelius Precinct 242.  This precinct in State Senator Jeff Tarte's home town voted overwhelmingly for him in the July 2012 runoff which ended the bitter primary campaign last election cycle for NC Senate 41.  In fact, Senator Tarte's margin of victory for the entire race was covered by just this one precinct.  He defeated his opponent, John Aneralla, by a total of 193 votes, and he won Precinct 242 by 203 votes.  Precinct 242 lies in the heart of the proposed I-77 HOT Lane plan.  Any fall off in support here and in neighboring precincts would hurt in the event of another primary challenge.

Admittedly, a primary challenge is not very likely, and Senator Tarte has insulated himself considerably in this region of the district with his efforts to fix the county's broken revaluation process.  For example, see When the politicians get it right... on some of the positive publicity he deserves on that issue.  However, Cornelius is also the home base for opposition to the HOT Lanes plan.  Many Cornelians who were convinced that Jeff Tarte was the best choice last time might think otherwise if given a choice in another primary and he is perceived to have done nothing to stop the toll plan. 

Earlier in the HOT Lanes debate they were seeing things like this tweet from their State Senator.  It's a picture of a traffic jam on a 20 lane road and implies this is what proponents of general purpose lanes are trying to foist on the public.

When asked about this tweet, here was the response...

That was back in February.  Now, in a current and ongoing conversation on Senator Tarte's Facebook page, he's openly discussing the issue.  Readers should definitely check it out.  In its own way, the below comment from Senator Tarte is rather refreshing.

"When folks send you messages they will hold you accountable at the polls - that is kind of petty and senseless - because it is not really a threat, it is how our political process works. If one does not want their actions judged, you should not run for elected public office. Being held accountable on every Election Day is one of the things that makes our system the greatest method of governing that man has known to date. Please hold me accountable on every issue as well as my entire body of work."

Senator Tarte is in a "safe" seat for Republicans, but his support for the HOT Lanes option on I-77 will definitely make it less so for him personally in the event someone challenges him and makes this a central issue in a primary campaign.

And finally, that last number of 8.6.  According to the most recent numbers on the State and Mecklenburg County Board of Elections sites, 8.6% of all North Carolina Republicans live in Mecklenburg County - 170k out of a total 1.98m to be more exact.

If there is any unrest among that group of Republicans it will have an impact on the next major statewide political race here in North Carolina - the 2014 race for Kay Hagan's US Senate seat.

Last week NC Speaker of the House and North Mecklenburg Representative, Thom Tillis, announced his candidacy for that seat.

However, to get a shot at that seat, he must first come out on top in a primary.  Being a main driver of a very unpopular project in his home county which contains a sizable chunk of the state's Republicans, does not help that cause.  It does not help it at all, and he can only lose votes because of it.  Dr Greg Brannon, the only other candidate officially in the race, mentioned the HOT Lanes issue as part of his "welcome letter" to Speaker Tillis for the 2014 Senate contest - ensuring that this is an issue which will be part of the primary campaign.

To win a first primary outright, a candidate needs 40% of the statewide vote.  Losing any sizable chunk of voters who should be in his camp will make that much more difficult for Thom Tillis.  If a race like this goes to a runoff, then it's anyone's guess who comes out the winner.  Ted Cruz's runoff victory in Texas being the obvious comparison.

And if Speaker Tillis makes it out of the primary?  In the general election that 8.6% will be even more critical.  The general election race for US Senate will likely be very close with no margin for error.

A cautionary example would be the 2008 race between Pat McCrory and Beverly Purdue.  The moderate Mayor Pat lost that race by a razor thin margin. One has to wonder how much of that margin was due to Mecklenburg County conservatives who didn't vote for him after his championing the Uptown arena and light rail.

As the clock ticks away on the HOT Lanes issue, more and more voters will be lost.  The only question is just how high that number goes.