First cut of new NC House and Senate districts impacts North Mecklenburg

Saturday, the first cut of court ordered new proposed maps for NC House were released on the NCGA website.  Sunday, saw the release of the new NC Senate  districts.  As aShortChronicle told readers previously, these changes were likely to impact North Mecklenburg and now that the possible new maps are out, we can see that they do.

Below is the current set of districts followed by the proposed new districts for both chambers of the General Assembly.

Here are the proposed changes to the NC House.

Current Districts

New Districts

On the NC House side, the current District 92 is totally redrawn meaning those North Mecklenburg residents represented by Democrat Chaz Beasley no longer would be.  Instead, they will move to the new NC House 107 currently represented by Democrat Kelly Alexander.  While Alexander would still technically still be in the 107th, that district has been completely redrawn, and there are relatively few voters in the new 107 who were also in the old 107.   The new district may lean Democrat, but Alexander will still have to make the sale to a lot of new voters in 2018.  He ran unopposed in 2016.

The current District 98 represented by John Bradford appears to gave become a bit more Republican leaning.  It lost Democratic precincts on the south east portion of the old district in north Charlotte and gained Republican precincts on the southwest side of the old district that used to be in the old 98th.  These changes combine to solidify the Republican position in this district.

Here are the proposed changes to the NC Senate.

Current Districts

New Districts

The current NC Senate 41 is represented by Republican Jeff Tarte  of Cornelius and very likely will remain in Republican hands after the proposed redistricting (though it could be closer than the current setup).  However, the interesting thing here is that the district still runs from the north to south of the county but now runs down the west side of Mecklenburg rather than the east side.

Also of interest is that, the current NC Senate 38 seat holder Joel Ford is barely carved out of the district to remain in the new NC Senate 38.  Ford is currently running for Charlotte Mayor, but in the event he loses he would still be in good shape to run for the same Senate seat he currently holds.  If the new NC 41 had been drawn differently to put Ford and Tarte in the same district, that would have been a closer but still very hypothetical contest.

So, all in all, while there are impacts not too much actually changes for voters here in North Mecklenburg under the new maps.  You can see the whole set across the state check NCLEG.net.

More NC election mayhem in 2017

And you thought the election related brouhahas had come to an end.  Nope!  Not here in North Carolina where they appear to be never ending.

On Tuesday, the other shoe dropped in the Federal lawsuit against North Carolina's state legislative districts.  A panel of Federal Judges ordered the state to redraw 19 House districts and 9 Senate districts for the General Assembly by March 15th, 2017.  Maybe more importantly, the state was also ordered to hold new elections in by the end of 2017.

While none of our local districts in LKN are directly involved in the lawsuit, the court decision requires any district that changes as a result of drawing new districts hold a new election.  That means even if the NCGA doesn't do a wholesale redrawing of districts like they did when Congressional districts were redrawn earlier this year, there would seem to be a high likelihood many if not all legislative districts would be impacted.  For LKN voters that likelihood is even higher because some of the districts directly impacted are adjacent to House 92 & 98 as well as Senate 41.

In Mecklenburg County, House Districts 102, 107, and 99 as well as NC Senate 38 and 40 are under court ordered redrawing.  Check out the below maps to see exactly where these districts are all located.

It is easy to see how redrawing the court ordered districts will impact the LKN districts in some way - triggering new elections in those districts as well.

It's also easy to see how redrawing districts could put some newly elected officials is bad situations.  Since Republicans will be drawing the new maps, those things will likely happen if it's to their advantage.

Take NC 92 for example.  Newly elected Chaz Beasley lives in Steele Creek in the south end of the district adjacent to NC-102.  In redrawn districts what if his residence is put in the same district as Becky Carney in 102? He can either primary a formidable member of his own party in that new district or he would have to run in a district where he no longer resides.  The court order allows this for these special elections, but if he was successful in the 2017 election he'd have to move to the new district in order to run again in 2018.

Examples like that could be seen all across the state.  Also, with this hanging over the legislature, one can expect new legislation to move fast and furious while NCGA Republicans hold super majorities in both the House and Senate.  If the 2017 election puts that at risk, you can be sure they will use that power while they know they have it.

Of course all of this could not happen if the Republicans in the NCGA win an appeal, but recent history makes that seem unlikely.  If this redrawing of the maps goes forward, 2017 will be another bumpy year in NC politics.

Early voting from NC98 - Bradford vs Campbell

A little election day light reading...

With early voting data available from the BOE and the ncvotetracker.com app, here is what early voting looks like in the contentious race for NC House 98.  It's a risky proposition comparing numbers from a mid-term election (2014) and a Presidential year (2016), but compare we can.

First some baseline info.  NC98 is an R+9 district according to the Civitas Partisan Index - meaning the Republican won the 2012 vote for Governor and Council of State races in the precincts that make up this district by 9 more points than the statewide margin.  The CPI is calculated only in Presidential election years, so it is more applicable this year than it would have been in 2014.  In 2014, Republican John Bradford beat Democrat Natasha Marcus by 10 points, 55% to 45%.

It is also important to note, this district is not gerrymandered to have a Republican win.  North Mecklenburg is just a pretty solid Republican area.  In 2014, Marcus won 3 of 12 precincts - 206 in Davidson plus 145 and 239 in Highland Creek.  If anything this district could have been drawn to be much more Republican by not including 239/145 voters and including more from Huntersville.

In 2014 Marcus won big in the 3 precincts she did win, so we'll consider those precincts the Democrat voting base.  The comparable Republican 3-precinct base would be precincts 133, 208, and 242.  In 2014 the Dem base precincts gave Marcus 426 vote advantage over the Rep base precincts.

When comparing early vote totals from 2014 and 2016 the turnout in the Dem base was up 333% on average by precinct this year.  The Rep base was up just 266%. This would indicate Campbell has bigger cushion this year in these base precincts going into election day. (The massive increases are driven by the much larger overall turnout in a Presidential year.)

In 2014 the cushion favoring the Dems in the "base" precints was totally overwhelmed by the fact those 3 precincts were the only ones the Dem candidate won.  There are multiple other precints that favor the Republican almost as much as the ones included in the "base" precincts here, and this year they had bigger early vote % increases.

We will know by the end of the day if the same dynamic happens again this year.

Town Hall gets an earful on "Davidson-Concord Speedway"

Davidson residents packed town hall Tuesday night - many of them children - to let officials know it's time to do something about the speed limit on Davidson-Concord Road.  This was in spite of efforts by officials discouraging them from attending because NCDOT would not be present.

Prior to the Board passing a resolution saying the town will ask NCDOT to lower the speed limit, 10-12 speakers took to the podium including several children to encourage Davidson to do something.  While all were appreciative of town efforts in the past.  It was made very clear those efforts are not enough.  It was pointed out that nearly 2 years ago Davidson officials passed a similar resolution, but nothing has been done.

Multiple speakers made reference to the flashing yellow beacons the town installed after Mason Stewart of River Run was seriously injured three years ago at the intersection of Robert Walker Drive and Davidson-Concord Road.   Two of those speakers were Don and Jennifer Stuart, the teen's parents.

One of the more poignant moments of the evening came when Don Stewart noticed three boys who were his next door neighbors.  The next accident could be any of the kids in the room.  When Jennifer Stewart spoke she relayed how she has to go through the very intersection where her son was hit every time she leaves the neighborhood.  She drove home the point that it's not a matter of if another serious accident will happen, but when.

Their son has recovered, but the next person may not be so lucky.

To all this, how did the town respond?

They told residents to come back next month when NCDOT is there.  They also told people to contact their NCGA representatives, Rep. John Bradford and Senator Jeff Tarte.  They said it's a state problem.  They passed the buck.

Oh, and they said they were going to spend $75,000 this next budget cycle to install more of the flashing beacons around town.  The same beacons many were saying do little to nothing at the site of Mason Stuart's accident.

Here is the thing.

It has been three years.  Why are citizens just now being asked to contact state representatives?  Isn't that sort of what we elect our town representatives to do?

And if that was what the town thought citizens should be doing all along, why weren't they encouraging that all along?

It's all about priorities.

Here is an example.  In 2013 and again in 2015, Davidson Town Hall pulled out all the stops encouraging citizens to contact the General Assembly in a vain attempt to stop a bill that imposed inconsequential limits on the town's ability to enforce design restrictions on single family homes.  It was an effort reminiscent of Don Quixote tilting at windmills.  They used a big chunk of Federal grant money to write a "Health Impact Assessment" hoping to convince people that their ability to enforce certain types of design on builders was somehow protecting the health and well being of citizens.

Ultimately, the bill passed overwhelmingly last year with overwhelming bi-partisan support - a rarity in this day and age.  All Davidson Town Hall achieved with its Quixotc effort was wasted political capital.

They've proved in the past that they are willing to put effort into applying pressure to Raleigh.  It has just been for the wrong things.

Hopefully, the message got through Tuesday night that the Town needs to be spending its effort on things that actually matter - like working with NCDOT to do whatever it takes to get the speed limit lowered before someone gets killed.

Update: NCGA Rep John Ray Bradford posted this earlier on his Facebook with a link to this story.  Good news!

"I met with the State's Traffic Engineer today, Kevin Lacy. His department is responsible for establishing speed limits across the state  We met in my office to review the Town of Davidson's Resolution. He committed that he would be willing to travel to Davidson to meet with Town officials, Senator Tarte and me. He agree he would personally tour/drive/observe the road to determine if the posted speed limits are still appropriate per NCDOT's speed standards. The next step is he is going to give me some dates of his availability so that we can all coordinate our calendars.  For clarity, legislators do not set speed limits but Senator Tarte and I want to help which is why we will coordinate this meeting and site tour. My sincere hope is that a re-evaluation by the head of the department will yield a fresh perspective and lower speed limit. Stay tuned..."

#NCGA - House Select Committee Bait and Switch on I77 HOT Lanes

After last November's election shellacking in Huntersville, one of the very first things that happened was announcement of a Select Committee in the NC House to look at I77 Toll issue.  In fact, the letter announcing the new committee has I77 Managed Lanes as the very first topic.

At the time, all this seeeeeeamed like a welcome about face from a legislature and local legislators who had done nothing to help the Lake Norman area avoid the NCDOT’S plan to saddle the area with 50 years of tolls.

So how has that worked out for us here in North Mecklenburg?

Unfortunately, things went steadily downhill after that initial announcement.

When the committee was initially announced, it became clear that it wasn't focused on tolls, but instead it was a body with a wide ranging scope.

While Rep Jeter of Huntersville is a Vice Chair of the group, he is one of three Vice Chairs and the body is Chaired by Rep John Torbett from Gaston County.

Furthermore, Rep John Bradford was not initially on the select committee.  Bradford represents Cornelius, the epicenter of the anti-toll movement.  At the same time Rep John Fraley of Mooresville who is openly pro toll was on the initial list.  (Rep Bradford eventually got onto the list, but only after lobbying to be added.)

aShortChronicle outlined these and other concerns back in December.  See here for that.

Now, after eight - yes eight!!! - meetings of the committee since last December - little to nothing has been done on the I77 issue according to the committee website at the NCGA.  One very pro-toll presentation can be found, but nothing from the anti-toll side.

Back on March 15th, Kurt Naas with WidenI77.org had this to say on Facebook in response to this story on aShortChronicle.

"With regards to the Select Committee, Widen I77 was twice asked to present and both times subsequently disinvited and removed from the agenda. To my knowledge the committee has not taken up the issue of I-77 tolls."

Since then, there have been two meetings neither of which included I77 on the agenda.  In fact, in the meeting on Monday 4/4 the committee published a draft report and passed two proposals.  One proposal was to remove tolls on all ferries in the state.  The other was to remove the cap on light rail funding from the state.

For a committee that had discussing I77 Managed Lanes as the first priority listed when the committee was formed, that's quite a record.

Bonus Observation:  Newly converted anti-toller Rel Charles Jeter chairs the sub-committee over public transit.  Avid pro-toller Rep John Fraley sits on the sub-committee overseeing roads like I77.

Will Town of Davidson officially oppose HB2?

With the debate about Charlotte's "Bathroom ordonance" and the NCGA invalidation of it continuing to rage across the nation, municiputies in the state have begun passing resolutions opposing HB2 which invalidated the Charlotte's action.

Will the Town of Davodson follow suit?

That question was posed to Davidson's Board on Friday with Mayor John Woods responding immediately with this.

"The Town Board has not met since the passage of HB2.  It is possible we will discuss this in due time and engage a conversation.

We will certainly keep all citizens informed."

Responses from a majority of Commissioners indicate if such an ordinance does come up for discussion, it likely will be well received.

Commissioner Rodney Graham chimed in with this lengthy statement.

"I'm happy to give you my personal opinion, but it only represents my opinion.  I can't speak for anyone else.

I think it's a terrible piece of legislation.  It has been mischaracterized as dealing with bathrooms, but if you look at the Charlotte ordinance the bathroom issue was a very minor part of that legislation.  Charlotte was simply wanting to join hundreds of other municipalities across the country (including some in North Carolina and several in South Carolina) and extend protections against discrimination to the LGBT community, which is a sizable community which suffers from discrimination.

The NCGA took away those protections, and even made it more difficult for people in existing protected classes to take action if they feel they have been discriminated against.  They have made it legal in NC for businesses to refuse to provide services to the LGBT community.  Fortunately, most businesses realize that it is bad for business to discriminate against anyone, but it is shameful that it is the law of our state that they can do so.

You have undoubtedly observed the reaction of the business community to this legislation.  While facebook is not a scientific gauge of public opinion, both Tarte and Bradford are getting criticized roundly on their facebook pages for their support of this legislation, and not just by the usual suspects.

Ultimately the legislation will be overturned either through the political or judicial process.  It is unfortunate that the NCGA put the state through this embarrassment.

And yes, it is one more example of a Raleigh knows best attitude.  I'd love for people to contact their local legislators about this issue."

Commissioner Jim Fuller followed that with a simple "I agree with Rodney."  Commissioner Stacey Anderson then said "I agree with Rodney and Jim."

That gives the town a Board majority supporting opposition to HB2.  The only quesion is will they act on it.

Update 4/4:  All five Davidson Commissioners have now expressed support for Rodney Graham's comments.

Update 4/12: Davidson adds request to repeal HB2 to its legislative agenda for the upcoming NCGA session .

Why the NCGA invalidated Charlotte's "Bathroom Bill"

The answer to that question is pretty short.  It’s “because they could”.

This is not a column about the merits of the General Assembly’s action last week in passing H2 in special session to invalidate Charlotte’s so-called “Bathroom Ordinance”.  Neither is it a column about the merits of the ordinance itself to provide protected status to the LGBT community.  The issues raised in that debate are highly charged on both sides with little chance of opinions being swayed either way.

However, these hot button issues do provide an opportunity to delve into a topic otherwise likely to seem totally boring.  That would be the theory behind the powers granted to local government.  It's that theory which lies at the heart of “why” the NCGA was able to take the action it did.

When it comes to local government, North Carolina - like most states - operates under some variation of what’s called “The Dillon Rule”.  The Dillon Rule basically says local government (counties and municipalities) only have powers to engage in self-government in areas approved by the State.  Debate around this subject goes all the way back to the founding of the country where the U.S. Constitution specifically grants the States all authority not reserved to the Federal Government.  The U.S. Constitution says little about the formation of local government at the county or municipal level.

During the post Civil War period in two cases out of Iowa, Judge John F Dillon affirmed the predominant interpretation at the time regarding the narrow scope of local authority or that all local authority should be explicitly granted from the State.  These cases were subsequently upheld by the U.S. Supreme Court.  Thus, “The Dillon’s Rule” was born.  Today, most states interpret the scope of local authority through that lens.

Basically, it boils down to this.  If the state has not fairly explicitly granted local government the authority to make certain decisions, then the authority to make those decisions rests with the state and not the localities.

That would seem to be a clear line, but in practice it can get fairly confusing.

Local governments can be granted “home rule” authority in broad areas – meaning the authority to make ordinances that impact just the home area of the local government.  That’s actually the case here in North Carolina where local government can take action on many things.

However, municipalities will also often stretch the limits of the areas where they have been granted authority.  These ordinances will often stay in place until they are challenged in court or someone in the legislature is convinced to “clarify” that a locality actually didn't have the authority to make an ordinance it had enacted.

Recent local examples of these supposed overreaches include Davidson’s 2013 repeal of its Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (APFO) when a similar ordinance in Cabarrus County was shot down by the courts due to an a lack of “enabling” legislation from the state.  In a second example, last year Davidson faced a legal challenge from developers to its mandatory affordable housing ordinance based on a claimed lack of enabling legislation.  The town settled that one, but if it had gone to trial it's very possible the courts would have sided with the developers and invalidated some or all of the town's affordable housing policy.

A third example of recent state “clarification” of municipal authority occurred last year when a bill originally sponsored by former Charlotte Mayor Dan Clodfelter finally passed the legislature. Clodfelter sponsored the bill when he was in the NC Senate years earlier.  That bill “clarified” limits on municipal efforts to implement certain design restrictions on housing.  It was strongly opposed by most Mecklenburg municipalities.  It also shows meddling in local affairs is not just a purely Republican purview.  Democrats get in on the game as well.

So, if something like H2 bothers you, ask your candidates this question.  “Do you favor abandoning Dillon’s Rule for expanded home rule for local government?”

If the answer is “no”, or even worse they don't know what you are talking about, then don't vote for them.

This post first appeared in this week's Herald Weekly at huntersvilleherald.com.

More Toll Related Fraley Campaign Finance Funny Business in NC95

A few weeks ago, we told you about a number of bright red flags in NC-95 Rep John Fraley's initial campaign reports when he ran last cycle.

Those dubious items included:

• the large amount of out of state donations in addition to his own mega loan of $75,000 to his campaign
• the use of paid campaign workers
• the diversion of copious amounts of cash to hardball consultants closely linked to the Raleigh establishment
• receiving a large donation from the family of Mayor Chuck Travis - a long standing supporter of the I77 toll project and a board member of the state's tolling authority.

As bad as that list is, unfortunately there's a bit more.

When Rep Fraley filed his year end campaign report in 2013, the first major report he filed, he served as his own campaign treasurer and did a very thorough job of capturing the required information from donors.  Maybe too good for some people's liking.

The State BOE website shows that in April of 2014, the Fraley Campaign filed an ammended report.

At first glance that April ammended report looks intended to just correct a couple of minor accounting errors.  A few dollars here and there are recategorized, nothing unusual.

However, one also notices the contact info on the donor list has also been "updated".

As previously mentioned, while serving as his own treasurer, Fraley had been very thorough.  Nothing was missing as far as contact info for donors goes.  For a first time report, that was actually pretty impressive.

The interesting thing about the updated report is that it actually removed info.  Every donor was reformatted and had some of the not required info provided in the original report struck from the report.

One donor had a bit more than that taken off.  Want to guess which one?

Out of 50 donors, only the donation from the family of Cornelius Mayor Chuck Travis had more info removed.  Instead of the required address info it now just said "NC" - an error that does not meet the minimum standard.

Typically, ammended reports correct errors.  They don't introduce them.

Plus, when the only introduced error makes it more difficult to identify the source of a potentially embarrassing contribution, that is certainly something that makes one go "hmmm...".

So, how did this happen?

One tried and true "explanation" for this type of thing is to throw the campaign treasured under the bus.  Often campaign treasurers are the candidates themselves or other people who may not do these things for a living.  It is believable for them to admit a mistake and beg forgiveness.

However, that tactic would not really work in Rep Fraley's case.  You see, in February of 2014 Fraley changed his campaign treasurer from himself to one Collin McMichael.  McMichael signed the ammended campaign form with the eror.

Who is Collin McMichael?  He just happens to be the professional campaign finance accountant used by many of North Carolina's Federal Republican candidates.  According to OpenSecrets.org,  McMichael's firm, CM&CO LLC , received $291,181 for its Federal work alone in the 2014 election cycle.

Who was CM&CO's largest customer that cycle?

That would be the Thom Tillis campaign.

That's the same Thom Tillis who is the godfather of the I77 HOT lanes plan, the same Thom Tillis who appointed Mayor Travis, whose wife made the donation in question, to the state Turnpike Authority, and the same Thom Tillis who had the dustup with former NC95 Rep Robert Brawley over the toll issue just before Fraley decided to primary Brawley last cycle.

So, here's the situation...

A high-dollar campaign finance accountant makes a "mistake" by removing information on a donation that could raise a few eyebrows.  It occurs around a highly volatile issue, and the people involved all have connections back to Senator Thom Tillis.

It could all be just an innocent coincidence, but it certainly is one of those things that make you go "Hmmm..."

#NCGA House-92: It is ALL about the HOT lanes.

At least that is what you would think from looking at Democrat challenger Chaz Beasley's website. The only issue mentioned on his campaign site home page is his opposition to I-77 HOT lanes project.

Beasley says he intends to file this Thursday at 12:15 p.m. according to his Facebook page.  He will be the first challenger for incumbent Republican Rep Charles Jeter of Huntersville who currently holds the seat.

Beasley repeatedly says "we" have opposed the HOT lanes project since the beginning. However, it is a bit unclear exactly what Beasley means by "we".

A search of the Exit 28 Ridiculousness Facebook page does not show a single comment by Beasley nor does one find anything else where he is on the record as opposing the project or has worked at all with the groups of activists trying to stop it.  That would include on the sites for the Mecklenburg Young Democrats where Beasley served as the immediate past president - a position that would have allowed him a platform to espouse his supposed opposition.

Regardless, his emphasis on the project shows the importance of it as a campaign issue.

NC-92 is one of the few competitive districts between the parties in the entire state, so any number of issues could swing the election to one party or another.  If voters believe that Jeter is not doing absolutely everything possible to stop the project, then it could cause enough voters to swing to Beasley simply because he says he opposes it.

Proof of Beasley's actual opposition may not be required.

Shenanigans and tomfoolery rule in closing days of NCGA

In a flurry if activity late in the session, the Honorables in Raleigh pulled so many switcheroos, fast moves, and sleights of hand it would make a 3-card monte street hustler proud.  Take your eyes off the game for even a split second, and you will be left wondering what just happened to you.

Here are the low-lights of the waning hours of this year's long session that ended around 4AM Wednesday morning.

We told you last week about H373 which allows the leadership of the 4 legislative caucuses to setup their own shadow parties through something called "affiliated party committees".

This raised holy hell among the grassroots community who saw this as a direct attack on the state's political parties.  Activists held out some hope Governor McCrory would veto the bill.  Instead Tuesday evening, it appears the rest of your state government got in on the act.

Rather than facing a veto, legislators passed bill S119 which actually expanded the potential use of the affiliated party committee concept to include the Governor - thus letting him in on the action.  This will occur if Governor Pat signs H373.  Read this story at DailyHaymaker.com for more details.

Also, on Tuesday legislators attempted to ram through some legislation intended to limit the type of ordinances municipalities could enact.  While normally, we here at aShortChronicle see putting limits on government as a good thing, in this case it was done in a very irresponsible way.

Similar to what happened in H373, with S279 legislators also attached a controversial provision to something that really needed to pass - legislation to improve capabilities around fighting human trafficking through improved counseling.

The pushback against the municipal restrictions forced the entire bill to be pulled off the calendar on Tuesday.  In order to save the good parts, legislators had to roll back a previous vote in the Senate, pretend that vote did not happen, then re-vote on an earlier version of the bill that did not contain the offending municipal provisions.

That put a number of Republican Senators in the position of having to pull a "John Kerry" - meaning they were against the bill before they were for it.

More than 2 dozen Republican Senators had originally voted against the bill which sent it to a conference committee where the offending local government provisions were added.  To get the counseling portion of the bill passed they rolled back that vote and then voted for the original bill

All this was to clean up a mess that they had made themselves.

Then finally there was Senate Bill 313.

In this case legislators replaced a bill having to do with license plates with one having to do with legalizing industrial hemp production.

This one flew through the legislature in a single day  The biggest concern here was wanting to make sure hemp products did not get used to promote actual marijuana products.  Nevermind how they so nonchalantly bastardized the legislative process.

The bill passed both houses with near unanimous support.

Folks, this is your government.. For a legislative session that ran way too long, ending it like this is pretty darn sad. 


Update: Governor McCrory did sign H373 Wednesday.  Story here.

There will be War!

That very well may be the result of the Pearl Harbor style attack by NCGA electeds on the NCGOP apparatus yesterday with passage of H373.

Rep John Blust of Guilford County had this to say on Facebook Thursday evening after the vote.

"Just think - the measure was only released 24 hours ago. If it was something we needed to enact, why wasn't a bill filed which followed the normal process which those we represent could follow? Why would this matter be hidden even from members until the very last minute? Honorable people do not conduct the public's business this way. The attitude reflected by the leaders in carrying this out shows a profound disrespect not only for the other legislators, but for the people we represent. That cannot be disputed. If one disputes it, tell me why the matter was hidden until the last minute?"

Blust was referring to the inclusion in the bill of a provision that would gut the power and influence of the state's political parties by allowing legislative leaders to essentially take full control of the purse strings.  This provision was added as part of the conference report for H373 - a bill intended to move NC's primary date back to March to avoid penalties at next year's Republican National Convention for having the state primary too early according to national party rules.

The new provision would allow House and Senate leadership to form their own fundraising and campaign support committees.  Instead of the money going through the political parties, it would be controlled by legislative leaders directly.

It appears this is a direct response to the grassroots success at June's state NCGOP convention.  The election of Hassan Harnett and Michele Nix as Chairman and Vice Chair has upset the applecart.  Direct control of the purse is more important than ever for legislators who raise large sums from special interest groups who want to ensure it goes where it is "needed".

If that control can't be assured the money could dry up all together.

Party leaders and grassroots activists are not taking this lying down however.  An effort was underway Friday afternoon to encourage Governor Pat McCrory to veto the bill.

McCrory has not had a lot of success with the veto this legislature. However in this case it seems unlikely the House would have the votes to override one if he decides to use it.  The Republucan-led effort only passed the House by 3 votes (52-49) and relied on several Democrats to get it done.  There were also four Republican legislators absent yesterday afternoon who were actually there earlier in the day.  It appears this bill may have even been scheduled for an afternoon vote to ensure passage. At least one of those absent Republicans, John Bradford of Mecklenburg, indicated on Facebook Thursday evening that he likely would have been a 'no' vote.

So, why is all this happening now?

It may just be part of the typical shenanigans that seem to occur at the end of legislative sessions.  However, it may also have something to do with the imminent selection of a new NCGOP Executive Director.  Maybe legislative leaders see that choice not going their way, so this was a preemptive strike.

Regardless, it will make Saturday's Party Executive Committee meeting much more interesting.

Time to get the popcorn ready!

NCGOP dominated NCGA attempting to gut NCGOP

In breaking news out of Raleigh yesterday, legislators inserted language into a bill which effectively will allow party leaders to circumvent their actual parties by forming their own committees to control the money rather than having it go through the party.

This appears to be in response to the takeover of NCGOP party leadership by outsiders earlier this summer.

The NCGOP has been in turmoil since then with multiple senior staff leaving.

Make no mistake this recent effort is about money - who gets it and who controls it.

Below are the details from Adam Love...

HB 373 is up for a vote today. This is the bill that will change our primary date to be in accordance with the RNC rules, so we don't lose our delegates. 

The bad news is that Rep. David R. Lewis has added another section to the bill that sets up House and Senate "shadow" parties. This will undermine the NC GOP and will create havoc next year. Please call your representatives and ask section 163-278.8B be taken out of the bill. The vote is TODAY. 

Here is the newly-added text inserted by Rep. Lewis:

"§ 163-278.8B. Affiliated party committees.

(a) The leader of each political party caucus of the North Carolina House of Representatives and the Senate may establish a separate, affiliated party committee to support the election of candidates of that leader's political party. The affiliated party committee is deemed a political party for purposes of this Article."

Read that again: "The affiliated party committee is deemed a political party for the purposes of this article."

This is nothing less than the establishment of a new political party.  The NCGOP RNC Committeeman is trying to start his own political party! Why would he do this?

Call your NC House representative TODAY and demand that this language be stripped from the bill! By attaching this to HB 373, Rep. Lewis has effectively taken our RNC delegates hostage; if the bill fails completely, NC will lose many of its RNC delegates!

While you're on the phone, call Rep. David Lewis at 910-897-8100 and ask him WHY he is attacking his own party!

Just Say 'No' to NCGA Four Year Terms

Most new Legislatures in Raleigh see a few proposed amendments to the State Constitution, and this one so far is no different.

Often, the proposed changes go nowhere.  Maybe they are proposed by the party that's not in power, so they do not have the votes to get on the ballot.  Maybe they are too contentious, so even if they are proposed by members of the party in control they do not go forward out of concern for riling up the opposition for the next election cycle.

Sometimes proposed changes garner lots of media attention and mobilize large segments of society.

“Amendment 1” in 2012 prohibiting gay marriage in the state was one such proposal.  It mobilized social conservatives and progressives alike before passing with over 61% of the vote.  Two years later it gained a second round of attention when it was effectively overturned by the courts in 2014.

Other times, constitutional changes that have a major impact on society hardly get any attention at all.

Last year’s change to allow criminal defendants permission to waive their right to a jury trial was all but ignored by most.  According to a report by the UNC School of Government, North Carolina was the only state to not allow such a waiver and even though the amendment proposed a “fundamental change in how criminal trials may be conducted in this state” it received little attention from the media and “advocacy groups”.

And then there are the proposed changes seemingly designed to help those in elected office more than anybody else.  Unfortunately, two of the proposed amendments this legislative session fall into this last category.

Two weeks ago, a pair of bills were filed proposing to extend the terms of Legislators from the current two year terms to four year terms.

House Bill 180, sponsored mainly by House Democrats, proposes 4-year terms for Representatives and Senators with a two term limit for the leadership positions of House Speaker and Senate President Pro Tempore.

Senate Bill 271 sponsored by four Republicans – including Senator Jeff Tarte of Cornelius – goes a step further by proposing 4-year “staggered” terms.  Under this scheme, only half the House and Senate would be elected every two years.

S271 also seeks to implement term limits for all members of the General Assembly.  Legislators would be allowed up to four consecutive terms “in a legislative chamber”.  It is unclear whether the term limits provision would mean a maximum of 16 consecutive years in Raleigh or potentially up to 32 years if an elected official maxed out 4 terms in each chamber.

Multiple requests to Senator Tarte’s office have gone unanswered to clarify this point and include his comments on the bill for this story.

Locally, debating this type of change may sound eerily familiar.  Back in 2011/2012, the Town of Davidson was considering a similar change to four year staggered terms for its elected officials.

If these bills go forward and make their way onto the ballot this November, you can be sure you’ll hear some of the same reasons why it is a good idea.  Supporters will say it “provides stability” by reducing turnover in a given election cycle.  They will tell you longer terms allow elected officials to spend more time on long-term projects rather than campaigning.  They will say it will take some of the money out of politics.  They will make it sound like a good idea.

But here are some of the other impacts.

• Four year terms for all legislators provides less accountability and a lot of time for individual members to make mischief between one election and having to face voters for reelection.

• In an environment where we already have very few competitive districts due to gerrymandering, cutting the number of districts in half on the ballot in a given election cycle will further concentrate money into an even smaller number of competitive races.

• Four year staggered terms makes it much more difficult for the party not in power to take over an elected body – even if those in power deserve to be ousted.  It is not good for small-d democracy.

In 2012 after hearing from voters, the Town of Davidson abandoned plans to make this type of change and lengthen terms for elected officials.  Here’s hoping our legislature and particularly those sponsoring these bills see the light and do the same here.

If legislators really want to give the public a choice on something voters may actually want, they could put a straight up term limits amendment on the ballot.  However, if the price of term limits is longer terms with reduced voter impact, then the price is too high.

NCGA targets local government overreach...

With the new General Assembly barely underway, multiple bills have already been submitted that put State lawmakers and some local government officials on a collision course over local authority to make some planning decisions.

S25(H36) - Zoning/Design and Aesthetic Controls was submitted last Tuesday.  That was followed by Wednesday's H51 -  Justice for Rural Citizens Act.

S25 and its companion bill, H36, are carryover bills from previous legislatures. The legislation has never been passed mostly due to timing on the legislative calendar, but it has raised angst among local officials every time it has been discussed.  The bills submitted last week match versions from the 2013 session that received overwhelming bi-partisan support.  Republican Senator Jeff Tarte from Cornelius is a primary sponsor on the Senate side – the same as he was last time.

The bill would explicitly prevent municipalities from implementing regularions on single family homes such as designating specific external building materials or design restrictions such as minimum setbacks on garage doors.

When this legislation was being discussed in 2013, the Town of Davidson took the unusual step of asking citizens to contact their legislators encouraging them to oppose it.  When asked if the Town would do that this time around, Public Information Officer, Christina Shall said "we will likely ask citizens to contact their representatives to oppose these bills, but we are waiting for the appropriate time."

Davidson Commissioner, Rodney Graham, who is also a custom home builder, was specific as to why he opposed this legislation.  Graham said "this legislation is being promoted by the production home builder lobby, and I have no idea why Raleigh feels they are better equipped to legislate design considerations than are the local towns."

When asked about this concern regarding local control of these decisions, Senator Tarte had this to say.

"The purpose of the aesthetic controls bill is to clarify where municipalities have inappropriately reached beyond their sphere of control as originally intended by the General Assembly. Nothing more and nothing less."

That sentiment meshes with comments received from Charlotte Mayor Dan Clodfelter.  In 2013, then-Senator Clodfelter - a Democrat - was also a primary sponsor of this legislation along with Senator Tarte.  We asked Mayor Clodfelter's office if his feelings had changed now that he is on the municipal side.  Interestingly, he said we could use the same colorful quote he gave back in 2013 regarding the legislation as well as a study called a Health Impact Assessmenr opposing it completed by Davidson staff.

"The bill has no effect on such things as walkable design, bike-friendly design, or anything of the sort.   I have read the “study” and was perplexed by the fact that the authors of the study seemed to be talking about a piece of legislation they had never even read.   There has been a great deal of “Chicken Little” reaction to the bill, and that has been equally perplexing.   The bill actually is a restatement and reinforcement of current zoning statutes, which I think are quite direct about the permissible subjects that may be regulated through zoning ordinances.   The need for the bill has come about because some local governments have been simply ignoring the limitations in the current statutes.”

A collision course with Davidson would seem to be set on this one.
The second potentially controversial bill entered last week, H51 - The Justice for Rural Citizens Act, will also no doubt cause major heartburn for elected officials used to having their way with local planning decisions.

H51, if passed, would strip municipalities of their Extra Territorial Jurisdiction (ETJ) planning authority.  Currently, municipalities can have some level of land use control beyond their municipal boundaries.  H51 would remove that authority over land use in an ETJ while leaving authority over public safety and things like water/sewer in place.

The rational is simple.  Residents from ETJs can not vote in municipal elections, so municipalities should not have a say in how their land can be used.

Again in Davidson, while town officials would certainly oppose seeing their authority over the town's ETJ stripped away, not everyone would be sorry to see it go.

Former Davidson Planning Board member, Martha Jenkins, had this to say when asked about the bill.  "The ETJ is a terrible and unfair restriction for property owners outside of town limits. Property owners in the ETJ are subject to people making decisions on land uses – while the actual property owner has no voting rights for those people who make those decisions. This concept allows town officials to control zoning and land uses without giving regard to the people who own the property and pay taxes."

She went on to say "the ETJ concept contradicts the American ideal  – all citizens should be allowed to vote for decision makers."

If this bill goes forward, after decades of living in Davidson's ETJ, Ms Jenkins and others may finally see that contradictory situation remedied.

H267: Lost opportunity on toll road accountability

With the WidenI77.org lawsuit announced ten days ago, it's worth taking a few minutes to look back and think about that proverbial question – “How did we get here?”

The various issues the lawsuit seeks to address can be grouped into two main categories: constitutional questions around whether or not the North Carolina General Assembly delegated too much of its authority and responsibility to the NCDOT and questions about whether or not the specific setup of this project using Public Private Partnerships is in the “public interest”.

Said another way, did the General Assembly seek to avoid all of the politically uncomfortable aspects of the project by burying the details in the opaqueness of a government agency and a private enterprise?

Many people probably do not remember this, but the early HOT Lanes plan for I-77 back in 2009 was much different than what is being planned now.  Back then, it was a plan to simply extend the existing HOV lanes up to Exit 28 and convert them to HOT.  It would have remained free to riders with only two passengers, and it would have cost just $50-60 million in 2009 dollars.  If the State had received grant funding from the Federal stimulus in 2010, commuters would very likely already be riding on those lanes by now.

The plan back then was so different from what we have on the table now that even some of the current plan’s harshest critics supported the earlier version.  Cornelius Commissioner Dave Gilroy actually voted for a resolution supporting the 2010 grant request.  Now, he staunchly opposes the current plan that is headed to court.

Over the course of the upcoming legal proceedings the public should learn if the courts see tolls as a form of taxation or if they are strictly user fees.  We’ll also learn if handing off public infrastructure to private companies for potentially unlimited profits is something that’s considered in the “public interest” and good public policy.

One thing we do already know is that the General Assembly had the opportunity to pass a law during the last legislature that could have been used to address may or all of the legal questions the project now faces, and we also know lawmakers deliberately and repeatedly chose not to take that opportunity.

The tale of H267 in the NC House during the 2013-2014 legislature is the kind of thing that turns a lot of people off when it comes to how our government runs.  However, if the WidenI77.org lawsuit is successful in stopping the HOT Lane project, H267 could also be looked at as the point which made that victory possible.

In a nutshell, here's what happened with this bill.

In March of 2013, H267 was filed with the title “An act to prohibit the imposition of tolls on an existing interstate without prior approval of the general assembly.”    This bill sounds like it would require a vote by legislators on each individual toll road project.  However, when asked if this bill would apply to the I77 project, one of the bill’s primary sponsors,Rep John Torbett (R-Gaston), replied at the time:
“I feel I-77 has already been determined and changing it would be a step backward. This bill should take effect on any new thoughts relative to tolling additional Interstates.”

Strike 1 against open government.

Then the legislative sausage making begins.

In May of 2013, H267 went into the house Transportation Committee co-chaired by Mecklenburg County’s own Bill Brawley (R).  A bill that went into the committee requiring a vote on toll roads individually comes out as a bill about how to implement toll roads generally.  The bill has a bunch of provisions on how tolls will be collected, but any reference an “act of the  General Assembly” - meaning a vote – is removed.

Strike  2 against open government.

Before the bill is passed out of the House later that month, there is an attempt to re-insert the language requiring an “act of the general assembly” before the bill was sent to the Senate.  Only 16 brave souls in the entire NC House voted for the amendment.

Strike 3.  Open government goes down swinging.

Eighteen months later, this project is headed to court.  Many if not all of the issues raised in the the WidenI77.org lawsuit could have been addressed by an “act of the the General Assembly” if H267 had passed as originally worded.

However, that would require our elected officials to fully stand behind tolling projects in public and on the record.  For projects that few people want, it's much easier to let the unelected bureaucrats at NCDOT and the faceless money men at  companies like Cintra take the heat.
This is your government.

As the new legislature gets back to work this week in Raleigh, let's hope they do better than this in the future.

Playing Three Card Monte on Public-Private Partnerships for Trains

Three weeks ago we told readers about the effort by the Metropolitan Transit Commission to gain support for its upcoming legislative agenda in Raleigh. That agenda included requests for three items:


1. Legislative permission to use Public-Private Partnerships (P3s) to finance transit projects.
2. Permission to access certain Federal loan programs for transit projects.
3. Repeal of the sunset provision for existing Special Assessment District (SAD) legislation.

These items had all been presented as critical to financing future transit line development including the stalled Red Line commuter rail project.  We raised concerns about why the MTC was pushing this along so quickly - asking local commissioners to approve supporting resolutions by it's November 19th meeting.  Of particular concern was the idea of using P3s as a mechanism to finance rail development.  With all of the controversy around the P3 project for the I77 HOT Lanes, it seemed this was being rushed along too fast for the public interest.


Then something unusual happened at Davidson's board meeting on Tuesday November 11th when the resolution was to be discussed.  Two of the three critical items disappeared - the P3 and Federal loan program requests had been removed.  Only the request to remove the SAD sunset provision remained.

Davidson's Board unanimously approved the slimmed down resolution with little debate.  On Monday of this week the Huntersville and Cornelius Boards passed the same resolution 4-2 and 4-1 respectively.


So, the obvious question...

"Why was the resolution trimmed to just one item?  Specifically, how did the controversial P3 provision disappear?"


In a November 6th email on behalf of CATS CEO, Carolyn Flowers, to MTC members, Flowers had this to say regarding the authorization to use P3s to finance transit projects:


"With respect to the public private partnership (P3) position, legislation enacted in the 2013 regular session, SL 2013-401 established a statutory framework for local governments to enter into P3 arrangements. Initially, CATS staff believed the 2013-401 framework was of limited use in implementing 2030 Plan projects and we started considering a new framework.  Over time, staff understanding of what types of P3 arrangements would be utilized for 2030 Plan projects evolved to the point where it is believed SL 2013-401 will provide a sufficient framework. For this reason, the proposed public-private partnership position may be removed from the agenda."


In response to an emailed question regarding this change, Flowers said “outside counsel recently confirmed that 2013-401 can be used for any capital project, including transit infrastructure projects”.  Flowers confirmed the outside counsel was law firm Parker Poe.

Parker Poe has a long history of connections to Charlotte transportation issues.  One of its partners, Anthony Fox (no relation to US Transportation Secretary and former Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx) served on Charlotte's "Committee of 21" regarding local road needs.  He was also appointed by Charlotte to the proposed new Charlotte Douglas Airport commission.  Parker Poe is also the same firm where former long-time Charlotte City Attorney, Mac McCarley, went after leaving his job with the City.

Prior to receiving input from outside attorneys, there was good reason for CATS staff to not think this session law was applicable to building rail lines.  SL 2013-401 was spawned by House Bill H857.  When H857 was written, it was not intended to create law to be applied for transportation projects.  This was confirmed by Rep. DeanArp (R-Union) who was one of  H857's primary sponsors in the General Assembly.

In fact, one of the “whereas” clauses in H857 specifically states it does not impact projects administered by NCDOT, and NCDOT helps administer rail projects where State money is involved.  However, the whereas clauses of a bill only describe the intent of the bill.  They do not become part of the law itself.  H857 was intended for public buildings, not transportation infrastructure.  Somewhat ironically, according to Rep Arp it was meant to bring more transparency into the use of P3s, but he agreed in this case is sounded like the law generated from his bill was being used beyond its original intent.

In this case, the legal eagles in CATS’s employ seem to be sacrificing the spirit of the law by following the letter of the law.  For CATS and the MTC it is much easier to claim they have the authority they need, rather than going through the messy process of actually being granted that authority.  In doing so, the public is once again deprived of participating in the discussion.  As importantly, if this position stands, the Republican-led General Assembly would not have to vote on allowing CATS to use P3s for rail transit financing - bypassing an opportunity for more legislative oversight.

Regardless of how you feel about rail transit in general or the proposed Red Line specifically, we should expect more from our government agencies than a game of three cardmonte using legal loopholes to get what they want.

North Meck Mayors + Speaker Thom Tillis (aka The HOT Lanes Bucket Brigade)

When the I77 HOT Lanes issue once again caught fire two weeks ago with the release of new information from NCDOT on potential toll rates, things got hot around North Mecklenburg among elected officials as well.

As reported here last week, Davidson's Town Board declined to have a special meeting to discuss the issue.  What may be even more interesting is the amount of water carrying done by the North Mecklenburg Mayors with some help thrown in by NC House Speaker/Republican US Senate Candidate, Thom Tillis.  Together, Mayors John Woods, Jill Swain and Chuck Travis - along with Speaker Tillis - formed a bucket brigade to put out the flames.

aShortChronicle obtained several emails outlining how the North Mecklenburg Mayors took the lead in attempting to stem the revolt brewing among the towns' Commissioners.  Even with their efforts, 9 of the 16 Commissioners ultimately signed a letter to Governor McCrory and NCDOT requesting a delay in signing the Commercial Close for the project - a request that was ultimately ignored.

As part of Mayor Woods's response to the special meeting request in Davidson, he indicated he would reach out to his fellow "regional mayors".  These emails appear to be the result of that effort to squelch the "hoopla" caused by the "well organized anti-group" - Mayor Woods's words to describe those opposing tolls.
 
After a weekend of activity, Monday evening Mayor Travis from Cornelius sent the below message to the Mayors of Davidson, Huntersville, and Mooresville in response to a message from Huntersville Mayor Jill Swain. 

Notice how the release of more information on the I77 HOT Lanes project is described as "non-relevant" and "outdated".  Mayor Swain even calls it "old news".  If it's such "old news" why is it that just about every news outfit in the region and state is just now reporting on it?  When the Stantec report supposedly wasn't "old news" in 2012 it certainly did not get much public attention.  Maybe this "old news" was communicated to the Mayors in one of the closed door meetings with consultants like this one specifically designed to avoid public meetings law?  In a separate email, Davidson town manager, Leamon Brice, laments about the NCDOT not giving them a heads up this information was coming out.  Truly "old news" would not cause such concern.

Also, notice how Mayor Swain dumps this project squarely in Speaker/US Senate Candidate Thom Tillis's lap saying "this is their project, and by God, let them take ownership."

Well, apparently the Speaker did just that.

See the below email just a few hours later from Cornelius Mayor Travis.  This is on a separate email thread that includes the Speaker (with everyone using their elected office email accounts this time).

Notice the repeated references to text messages with the Speaker, and the Speaker's apparent indication that Tarte is "Ok".  That would seem to be a reference to Senator Jeff Tarte.  The next day Senator Tarte would tell the Charlotte Observer that a legislative review would be conducted before the final, final, we really mean it this time contract is signed with Cintra later this year.  This request for review was done "with the support of legislative leaders".

 

While we should all be glad an additional review is going to take place, the legislature has had opportunities to force a real review - aka a VOTE - on specific toll road projects.  That was in the form of HB 267 last year.  Read these stories to get a refresher on how the Legislature avoided going on record - H267: George Orwell Comes to Raleigh AND H267: Redux - NC House really, really, really doesn't want to vote on tolling you.  With Senator Tarte and other leaders still strong supporters of the project, it's hard to see any review at this point as anything but a bit of kabuki theater.

 

Then finally, Monday night there's this desperate plea from Mayor Woods to the Davidson Town Board.  It's an obvious reference to the letter the nine area Commissioners were contemplating sending to the Governor and NCDOT.  He is all but begging them not to sign it.

 

 

After once again smearing citizens who oppose HOT Lanes by calling them "naysayers", Mayor Woods attempts to sway Commissioners by alluding to possible participation in a "transit" project - for those here in North Meck that's an obvious reference to the Red Line Commuter Rail - a project that can best be described as "his baby".  He makes this statement even though as Chair of the Red Line Task Force he knows that less than 48 hours later at the Wednesday Metropolitan Transit Commission meeting it would be announced Norfolk Southern has all but killed the Red Line project with its latest announcement that takes track sharing off the table.  Why he decided to tie these two projects together is anyone's guess.  When we reported on the rumored linkage here last year, there was definite push back against such insinuations.  (In any event, Mayor Woods was off to Raleigh this week to see if he could save the Red Line.)

 

The irony of all this effort to stop a letter from nine Commissioners to the Governor and put out a sudden wildfire?  The letter had already been sent a few hours earlier.  It went out late Monday afternoon.

 

As the I77 HOT Lanes project moves forward, it's likely the "Bucket Brigade" (aka the North Mecklenburg Mayors and Speaker Tillis) will be called back into action. 

 

We'll be watching.

 

Bonus Observation:  The passing the buck on this issue continues. In this week's issue of The Lake Norman Citizen there is an article on HOT Lanes. (link not available)  According to Huntersville Rep Charles Jeter, there's nothing, just nothing the General Assembly can do at this point.  Of course, Rep Jeter also voted against giving the NCGA the authority to vote on specific toll projects back during the debate on H276.  Read the H267 links for the details on that.

 

Rep Jeter repeatedly says this issue is now with the "executive branch" - meaning Governor McCrory and NCDOT. 

 

The response back from the "executive branch" to the 9 Commissioners' letter?  Crickets...nothing...nada.

With Filing Still a Month Off, North Meck NCGA Candidates Make Announcements

This past week saw announcements from local candidates regarding this year's NCGA elections.  With just a few weeks left before filing begins, things are sure to get interesting as the State and Federal election cycles ramp up.

On Tuesday, State Senator Jeff Tarte (Rep) sent out an email blast announcing a long list of endorsements - including endorsements from three Davidson Commissioners - Brian Jenest, Beth Cashion, and Stacey Anderson.  See here for the announcement and complete list. 

Not all that surprising is the absence from the list of Mayor Woods, Commissioners Graham, and Commissioner Fuller.  If they were to endorse anyone in the upcoming general election cycle for the NCGA, I'd put my money on Democrat and Davidson local, Natasha Marcus, in the NC House 98 race to replace Thom Tillis.  All three were pictured here at the campaign kick-off event in Davidson for Ms. Marcus with Mayor Woods doing the candidate introduction.  Interestingly, Mayor Woods was listed as a "supporter" of Republican John Bradford in this announcement regarding his recent Cornelius campaign, but he's missing from the list of elected officials endorsing Bradford for the NC-98 race.

Speaking of the NC-98 race and John Bradford, Bradford's campaign announced an important appointment this week.  Joshua Dobi will chair Bradford's election campaign committee.  That name may sound familiar to readers of this blog.  When Bradford announced his intention to run for this seat, we pointed out that local businessman Joshua Dobi had strongly urged voters to support Bradford in his recent run for Cornelius Town Board.

On Bradford's campaign site, ElectBradford.com, the campaign says of Dobi's selection to chair the campaign committee...

"Choosing a CEO in a successful Lake Norman area business is a calculated decision"

Seems like there are a lot of "calculated decisions" going on.  Then again, this is politics.

Setting the stage for who'll replace Thom Tillis in NC-98

The storyline of who will replace NC Speaker, Thom Tillis, as the North Mecklenburg Representative in the General Assembly started to officially take shape this week with outgoing Cornelius mayor, Lynette Rinker (Rep), throwing her hat in the ring.  Her announcement comes in the last month before she steps down to be replaced by Mayor-elect Chuck Travis.

When Ms Rinker decided earlier this year that she would not seek re-election to the mayor's post, one of her stated reasons included plans to seek higher office.  Speculation immediately centered on the NC House 98 seat that would be vacant with fellow Cornelian, Thom Tillis, deciding to run for US Senate.  In what was surely an unintended swipe at another fellow Cornelian, NC Senator Jeff Tarte, Rinker said at the time to CorneliusNews.net “As I consider other offices that are up for up for election in 2014, it just didn’t seem right to file and run for mayor if I’m looking ahead at something else.”  Rinker was elevated to mayor from commissioner when her predecessor, Jeff Tarte, decided to run for State Senate almost immediately after winning re-election as Cornelius's mayor.

How Rinker's candidacy plays with local Republicans remains to be seen.

As mayor her biggest achievement has arguably been carrying water for toll road supporters in Raleigh who want to widen I-77 with HOT lanes.  Those supporters include NC-98 current office holder, Speaker Thom Tillis. 

Back in January of this year, Rinker was fairly defensive in this video at being accused of supporting HOT lanes.  By the time spring rolled around, she had obviously changed her tune - casting the tie-breaker in a surprise vote on Cornelius's Board to officially support tolls on I-77.  Only time will tell, but this tie-breaking vote on tolls potentially puts Mayor Rinker in the same company as former Mayor Bill Thunberg of Mooresville - meaning, a mayor who cast a tie-breaking vote in favor of a highly controversial project that did not really pass the "common sense" test.   Mayor Thunberg cast the tie-breaker that effectively created the Mi-Connection cable company - a decision that has gone disastrously for the towns of Mooresville and Davidson.  We all need to hope that Mayor Rinker's tie-breaker for tolls does not lead to a similar result for the entire region.

In light of all that, another way to look at Ms Rinker's decision to not run for re-election as mayor is that she did not want to face a potentially tough re-election fight similar to what just played out in Huntersville.  In Cornelius's southern neighbor, Mayor Jill Swain, won re-election last week by a mere 27 votes after a bare-knuckle fight against toll road opponents.  With Cornelius also being a hotbed of anti-toll sentiment, running for re-election - and potentially losing - would not be a politically smart move for one angling for higher office.  Losing one office just before seeking another is not a winning strategy.  (See the results for Council/Congressional/Mayoral candidate Edwin Peacock as an example.)

Add to all of the above the fact that the battle over toll roads these past few months has in fact taken a toll on many conservative activists, and the stage is set for a closer and more interesting race than might be expected in this heavily Republican leaning district.

Enter stage left, Democrat Natasha Marcus of Davidson whose campaign sent out a press release Thursday indicating her intentions towards this open seat.

Ms Marcus has been a leading progressive activist in the North Mecklenburg area, and her home base of operation during the campaign will likely center around Davidson's Precinct 206.  The final stop of her campaign kick-off tour around the district will end at Summit Coffee on Davidson's main street with Davidson Mayor, John Woods, MCing the event. (See Davidson Village...Last Bastion for Democrats in the LKN Area. for background on this precinct.)

While any Democrat running in this district faces a steep up-hill climb, Ms Marcus will bring advantages with her.

Her leadership role in local progressive activist groups will provide a base of volunteers.  She knows the issues and will be able to capitalize on certain social issues if they enter the campaign.  For example Precinct 206, centered around Davidson College, cast more votes against Amendment 1 last year than any precinct in Mecklenburg County except for one.  Finally, she will have a solid team of people supporting her.

While I don't know Ms Marcus other than to recognize her from around Davidson - often seeing her registering voters at the farmers market, I do know some of the people who will be helping and advising in her campaign.  She will have a team that is both focused and dedicated.  Expect them to approach this effort with a steely-eyed professionalism.  Do not expect them to make any big mistakes.  They write checks.  More importantly, they know people who write checks.

Will they be able to pull it off?  Who knows?

One thing is for sure, this story is going to have a number of subplots before the curtain falls next November and the first of those subplots may very well be if/when another actor shows up to give either of these ladies a primary challenge.