NMRW hosts reception for Senator Thom Tillis

This past Friday, the North Mecklenburg Republican Women (NMRW) hosted a private reception for the newly installed junior United States Senator from North Carolina, North Meckenburg’s very own Thom Tillis.

Less of a hardcore political event, than an opportunity for the Senator and his wife, Susan, to thank supporters for their efforts over the course of the campaign, the event at the Northstone Country Club in Huntersville attracted a full RSVP list of about 200 people.  It included everyone from young campaign volunteers to seasoned politicians from the local, State, and Federal levels.

Landing the first big local appearance after the Senator’s swearing-in last week was a bit of a public relations coup for the NMRW.  But then again, it is not surprising either.  Senator Tillis was a founding member of the group when it was established as an official Republican Party organization back in 2009.  (The NMRW allows men to join as auxiliary members.)

It was also fitting that the NMRW hosted the first local appearance after Tillis’s swearing-in. One could argue the group provided a bit of good luck the last time he spoke there prior to the final push before election-day, so it was nice to see the Senator acknowledge the group with that honor.

Readers may remember the first installment of this column for the Herald Weekly back in early October of last year.  At that point, candidate-Tillis was knotted in a tight race with Kay Hagan where Hagan had been maintaining a stubbornly persistent lead of 2-4% in almost all of the polls.

Tillis gave a more aggressive speech at that October NMRW meeting than was being reflected in his campaign’s commercials at the time.   It seemed like the kind of speech that could turn the race if given enough traction with the public.  Here’s what that earlier column said.

“In short, he displayed the confidence of someone who has done this before all across the state, someone who knows his electorate, and someone who understands what is coming over the next few weeks until election-day.  If that Thom Tillis comes through in the ads and debates between now and November 4th, the national pundits who have all but written off this contest could very well be in for a big surprise.”

Little did anyone know then, that just a few days later on October 7th after the next debate with Hagan an event would occur giving the Tillis campaign the boost it needed to get over the top.  That event was Kay Hagan’s admission that she had skipped an Armed Services Committee meeting on the terror group ISIS to attend a fundraiser for her campaign..

The day after the election, Tillis Campaign Manager, Jordan Shaw, told the Charlotte Observer the Hagan admission was a “critical point”.  A week after that debate the NRSC dumped over $6 million more into the campaign to help capitalize on the opportunity in the home stretch.  This combined with another news item outside the campaign’s control – the Ebola crisis in Africa – allowing the Tillis campaign to take over the conversation and turn the tide of an impossibly close race.

As a frame of reference on how close this race turned out to be, Tillis won by the smallest percentage margin of any of the nine Republican pickups this year.  His margin was 1.7% - 49% to 47.3%.  Other than Alaska, he also had the smallest margin of victory based on raw vote counts - 49,000 votes out of nearly 2.9 million votes cast.

One interesting post election analysis done by RealClearPolitics.com showed that if the overall electorate had turned out to mirror the demographics of the 2012 presidential cycle, the North Carolina race was the only Senate race where the outcome would have been different.  Meaning, if the electorate had been younger and less white as it typically is during presidential cycles, Tillis would have been the only new Republican Senator not headed to Washington, D.C.

With a race that tight, here is something interesting to ponder…

What if Kay Hagan had decided to attend that one meeting she skipped?  What if she had gone to work that day instead of attending a fundraiser?

If she had, things certainly might be different.  However, that’s not how it turned out.  Thom Tillis did win the election, and he is headed to Washington.  Somewhat ironically, he will also be sitting in Hagan’s old seat on the Armed Services Committee.

There's certainly a lesson in there somewhere.  Maybe it’s to always be prepared and to make every opportunity count because you never know which decision might turn out to be the most important one you make.  Or, maybe it is just to always keep a lucky rabbit’s foot in your pocket.

In politics, both lessons apply.

NMRW Provides Safe Harbor for Thom Tillis

If you listen to the pundits and believe the polls, it would be hard to describe the past few weeks as "smooth sailing" for the Thom Tillis campaign trying to capture the North Carolina US Senate seat up for grabs this election cycle.  Tillis has been trailing Kay Hagan by a stubborn three to five percentage points in the RealClearPolitics.com polling average.  At the same time, while most national pundits recently started talking about a building Republican wave across the country, those same pundits invariably mention the North Carolina Senate race as the outlier or exception to that trend.

Against that backdrop, the Tillis campaign pulled into a safe harbor at last week’s North Mecklenburg Republican Women's Club annual "Pig Pickin and Politickin" event at the Peninsula Club on Lake Norman.  It was a homecoming of sorts for the local politician now shooting for one of the highest elected offices in the land.  The NMRW is the official Republican Party outlet here in North Mecklenburg, and Thom Tillis was one of the charter “associate members” when club formed in 2009.  He has been a regular guest speaker ever since.

To give you a sense of how much interest there is in this race, organizers turned away television outlets from as far away as Japan.  There was extra security on hand and club members were on the lookout for Hagan campaign "trackers" or unwelcome guerilla videographers trying to make their way into the private event - big-time preparations for a group more accustomed to events covering legislative updates and local town issues.

When it came time for Thom Tillis to take the stage you could sense the anticipation in the air.  Attendees wanted to see the fire and passion they know exists in the Republican candidate - their candidate.  It's a passion and a fight that some see missing from the Tillis campaign commercials airing in recent weeks.

Thom Tillis delivered!

In a speech lasting about 10 minutes, Tillis hit a number of the red meat topics for the roughly 150 party faithful in attendance.  He covered immigration by stating "we need to seal the border" - even going as far as saying Ronald Reagan "got it wrong" with his amnesty in the '80s.  He criticized President Obama for hiding from the issues with Obamacare by pushing back its implementation dates - ensuring voters get the next round of cancellation notices only after election-day.  Turning to foreign affairs, he took a strong stand in taking on the Islamic State (ISIS) and referenced the beheading of a British aid worker earlier that day.  Of course, he also pegged Kay Hagan for her part in supporting the President’s handling of all these issues.

When talking about the campaign itself, Tillis did not seem at all concerned.  He referenced his own internal polling showing the race knotted at 44% along with the expectation that undecided voters would break his way.  His take on the race so far was that he had withstood a massive amount of Democratic spending going all the way back to last November while his team had kept their powder dry until after Labor Day.  He said that when asked how he feels about this race, his answer is that he feels the same way he did at this point in 2010 when he was orchestrating a Republican takeover of the legislature.  In that election 16 House races were successfully targeted including a number where Democrats were expected to win.

In short, he displayed the confidence of someone who has done this before all across the state, someone who knows his electorate, and someone who understands what is coming over the next few weeks until election-day.  If that Thom Tillis comes through in the ads and debates between now and November 4th, the national pundits who have all but written off this contest could very well be in for a big surprise.

Look for this post and others in the Herald Weekly.

A house divided...

cannot stand is the saying.

While I don't think that saying really applies to the Republican Party here in North Mecklenburg, things are going to get very messy over the next few months.

Tuesday saw the announcement of a new group forming in the area called Lake Norman Conservatives.  The group's first event is ambitious - a candidate forum for the US Senate race.  Three of the five announced candidates are apparently confirmed, but that list does not include Speaker Thom Tillis of Cornelius.  I'd be surprised if he does.

This new group has its genesis in the controversy over toll roads - a controversy that has its roots in the actions of our elected officials - primarily Republicans. (See here, here, and here for just a few examples.)  Those actions were bound to ultimately end in this result - a division within the ranks of the conservative movement in the area.  Regardless of what happens from here on out, people need to remember where the blame really lies for that.

There are good, committed people on both sides of this dividing line, and I hate to see them lining up against each other.

Wednesday saw the entry of recently re-elected Cornelius Commissioner John Bradford into the NC House 98 race to represent North Mecklenburg in the NC Legislature.  This is the second time in two election cycles where a Cornelius elected official announced plans to run for a higher office immediately after a municipal election cycle - the other time being when then newly re-elected Mayor Tarte jumped into the primary for NC Senate 41.  Tarte was successful and maybe Bradford will be too.  However, if I was a Cornelius voter I'd be pretty annoyed with my Town Board repeatedly being seen as a stepping stone to higher office.

During the last campaign when Bradford was the target of the "Fire Bradford" signs posted by the Widen I77 activist group, the campaign pushed back by releasing a long list of endorsements.  One of those endorsers had this to say...

Local businessman Joshua Dobi, expressed concern if Bradford were not to be re-elected. “Considering the amount of turnover we have had on the Commission this year I would be very worried if John Bradford were not to be re-elected to the Cornelius Town Commission. His service is vital to the health of our town government. 

Apparently, Bradford does not share that same "worry".

Expect to see comments coming out of the Bradford camp like "this just came up", or "people started asking me to run" etc, etc.  Do not believe them.  The rumor that Bradford was thinking of running has been circulating for a while now.  The first bit of evidence received here was less than ten days after the last election.  Also, comments by the other announced Republican in the race, Lynette Rinker, make it sound like she might have had the inside scoop a while ago.  In hindsight, her references in her campaign announcement to being "a full-time legislator and working for you will be my only job” may be an attempt differentiate herself from Bradford who owns a real estate management business.

This race will be interesting to watch, but frankly, as a conservative, neither announced candidate excites me all that much.  The biggest local issue this year has been the widening of I77 with tolls and both of these candidates come down on the wrong side of that issue.  They are in the same camp as the person who they are trying to replace - Speaker Thom Tillis.  It's hard to see many of the local activists I know supporting either of them enthusiastically.  What would make it more interesting is if a third candidate jumps into the race.

I can think of a few people who I'd like to see, but unfortunately, there is no chatter, swirl, rumor or innuendo to report on the possibility of that.

NC Senate Candidate appearances fizzle in North Meck. Media spectacle avoided?

The post-NCGOP appearances in North Mecklenburg scheduled by Greg Brannon and Thom Tillis for Monday and Tuesday both fizzled this week as the candidates had to get back to their "day jobs".

Monday afternoon, the Brannon campaign announced that Dr Brannon could not "get away from the hospital" for a meet and greet in Cornelius after being in Charlotte all weekend.  This event will be rescheduled sometime soon.

Tuesday evening, Speaker Tillis was scheduled to speak at the North Mecklenburg Republican Women's meeting in Huntersville.  However, a long-running Appropriations Committee meeting prevented him from catching his ride out of Raleigh with Rep. Charles Jeter and Ms Tillis.

In the end babies and the budget are more important than campaign events.

However, if there was one person breathing a sigh of relief at these cancellations, it has to be Speaker Tillis's new media consultant for the US Senate campaign - Brad Todd.  Just a few days on the job, Mr Todd may have lucked into avoiding a media disaster at the NMRW meeting.

Being the first local appearance in North Meck after announcing his candidacy, Speaker Tillis would have faced a large contingent of angry voters Tuesday night in a forum that should have been a celebration and an easy kick-off to his campaign.  Instead, the packed room was heavily populated with people who wanted to talk about HOT lanes - the unpopular local project where he's the prime supporter in Raleigh.  Several known faces from WidenI77.org were present, but judging by the reaction and murmurs during Rep Jeter's remarks on the subject, there were many other opponents of the project in the crowd as well.  It likely would not have been pretty.  What would have made matters worse is that this event would have had television media coverage.  (The Channel 14 news van was seen leaving just prior to the event's start time once it was known the Speaker would not be there.)

Coming on the heals of Sunday's events, avoiding a second less-than-positive engagement with the party faithful in the candidate's back yard in a single week (this one televised) was likely considered a godsend for the new media management operation over at Team Tillis.

NMRW Crowd

Updated: North Meck Gets New Republican Leaders, Davidson Gets $2000 Trash Bins

North Mecklenburg saw the addition of new Republican leadership in the area this week. 

Monday night, former Cornelius Mayor Jeff Tarte took the oath of office to become Senator Tarte as the area's Senator in the General Assembly.  As Senator, Tarte represents the new NC Senate 41 district created as part of the last round of redistricting.  For North Meck's  more conservative residents, having a Republican as the area's Senator will be a welcome departure from Democratic Senator Malcolm Graham.  With Davidson's move to NC-9 at the Congressional level, Tarte (along with Thom Tillis and Charles Jeter in the NC House) rounds out the area's solid representation by Republicans at almost all levels of Government. 

The only top elected official in the area at any level of government who is not a Republican is Davidson's Mayor, John Woods.

On Tuesday, the North Mecklenburg Republican Women (NMRW) installed their new set of leadership.  The new officers are:

President - Linda Angele

1st VP - Pat Murray  Programs

2nd VP - Vallee Bubak  Social Media & Press Contact

Treasurer - Annette Mastrogianni

Assistant Treasurer - Carole Gibbons

Corresponding Secretary - Mary Jo Lyons

Recording Secretary - Randie Long

The NMRW has become a real force in area politics, hosting regular meetings attended by elected officials of all levels and providing a tremendous amount of volunteer effort during campaign season.  As mentioned in the recent post on 2012 Mecklenburg activism the NMRW put up some impressive numbers during the past election cycle.  For example one NMRW volunteer made over 30,000 calls during this campaign season from the Republican Victory Centers. You read that right. 30,000 calls. Another knocked on 3000 doors.  That impressive door knocker was Linda Angele, the group's new president. 

 

With dedication and leadership like that, expect great things from this group in the future.

However, it's not all good news when it comes to North Meck's slow march towards more conservative government. Tempering the week's events comes news that the spending spree continues in the Town of Davidson.  At Tuesday night's Town Board meeting, a little item is scheduled to pass on the consent agenda approving a budget amendment for 11 new "duo-bins" along Main Street.

At just over $2000 a piece, they are a reminder that there is still work to do when it comes to local government.

2000 of your State and local tax dollars

UPDATE: At the April Town Board work session the Board was presented data which showed this expenditure did not have the desired impact.  Town recycling as a percentage of overall solid waste was down from 18% to 14%.  Rather than asking hard questions about why this might not be working as expected, the prevailing sentiment on the Board was that the data must somehow be wrong.

Will everyone who supports the Red Line please raise your hand?

NC Speaker Thom Tillis spoke at the North Mecklenburg Republican Women's meeting on Monday night.  One of the more interesting moments occurred when someone asked if he supported the Red Line.

His initial response was to ask all RLRR supporters to raise their hands.  Not a single hand shot up.  Then a few sort of inched up - a little.  None of the candidates for office who were in the room put their hands up.  None.