A Final Thought on Tomorrow's #NCSEN Primary...

Dr Greg Brannon had a campaign event in Uptown Charlotte today outside the NASCAR HoF.

About 200 people were in hand to hear Dr Brannon and special guest Kentucky Sen Rand Paul at a lunchtime rally the day before election day.

As you can imagine there was plenty of conservative red meat in the various speeches.  However, what caught my attention above and beyond the standard campaign rhetoric was how young the crowd was that came out today.

Without a doubt it was the youngest crowd I've ever seen at any Republican candidate campaign event in this area.  That's not to say you won't see any people under 30 at the other candidates' events.  It's also not a knock on the more mainstream Republican events where the crowd is more seasoned.  However, it is a real and tangible statement that the message of the liberty movement epitomized by people like Sen. Paul and Dr.  Brannon resonates strongly with the younger generation.

The word 'fighter' was used frequently by the different speakers.

Regardless of how tomorrow turns out, the Republican party should take heed of the fact that a true fighter is what the next generation of Republican activists wants in its candidates.

The Preacher, the Practitioner, the Pugilist, and the Politician

A Baptist Preacher, a Nurse Practitioner, a Tea Party Pugilist, and a seasoned Politician walk into an auditorium for a debate in small town Davidson.  Out walked four candidates who will still appeal to distinct major areas of the Republican primary electorate.

Nobody delivered a knockout blow in tonight's debate for the GOP nomination and the opportunity face Kay Hagan in November.  That's hard to do when all of the candidates say that they fundamentally agree on most issues. 

None of the candidates made any obvious mistakes.  None of the candidates did anything to lose voters who had decided on their pick for May 6th.

Regardless, here are a few quick observations: 

If anybody "won" the debate it was probably Thom Tillis.  He's the politician.  He's the smoothest.  He's the most polished.  My guess is the people who are just tuning into this race (the truly undecided voters because they have not been paying attention), liked what they heard.  Does that type of performance get him up to 40% and enough votes to avoid a runoff?  That's still the big question.

If you are looking for a fighter and not a politician (and I don't use politician here as a dirty word), then Brannon is your guy.  He went after Tillis more directly than any other candidate.  He pushed back when the Speaker twisted his words on a question regarding the 2nd amendment.  He definitely gave the impression that you will get someone willing to go to the mat and go repeatedly.  However, one has to wonder how well his repeated and constant references to the Constitution go over on TV.  This works great at small events with hardcore conservative activist types, but it might not translate well to mass media.

If you want the gentleman social conservative, Mark Harris fits the bill.  However, politics is a contact sport and tonight the good pastor didn't even suit up.  He came off flat.  He didn't have the fire you would expect from someone who led the charge on something like Amendment 1.  Again, he gave no wrong answers, but the answers he gave were not going to sway any of the undecided into saying "he's my guy.".

If you are looking for a folksy, Sarah Palin-esque candidate Heather Grant meets the criteria.  She had the fire Harris was lacking, and she gave the right answers just like the rest of them.  She has a good back story and would make a fine Republican lawmaker.  Is she ready for the US Senate versus the State Legislature?  The General Assembly probably would have been a better choice for a first time run.  She'd win easily in the right district.

Nothing changed this evening.  This one still seems headed for a runoff - likely one between Brannon and Tillis.  They'll all meet two more times in quick succession for two more debates, then it will be time to watch the polls.

Fear and Loathing on the Road to the NCSEN Primary

"The stage lay set in a perfectly diabolical manner.  All the pieces were in place. 

The pesky media stood docilely outside - locked out by having the event in a church.  A similar tactic worked well when the mafia needed to meet away from the prying eyes of law enforcement - using their doctors' and lawyers' offices to gain a certain freedom to conduct business.   If a tactic like that worked for them, why not for a political party convention?

The plan for the new rules change had been kept secret and hidden like an assassin's poison ready to do it's ugly work.  The snake-oil salesmen rehearsed their pitches well to ensure it was taken in by the audience with ease - ready to spin anyone brave enough to try and talk some sense into the crowd. 

A sense of F.E.A.R. - False Evidence Appearing Real - permeated the room."

Channeling Hunter S Thompson and picturing a large, free-flowing vat of electric cool-aid provides the best way to make sense of what happened last Saturday at the MeckGOP convention after reading this piece by Christian Hine over at PunditHouse.com. 

Rule 19(a) as passed by the latest MeckGOP convention effectively eliminates issue-based resolutions at the county convention.  This comes on the heals of the unanimous issue based resolution against HOT lanes at last year's convention.  The rule will likely become a divisive lightning rod in future conventions as one can picture grassroots activists repeatedly trying (and failing) to get a supermajority to override the rule and pass resolutions on the hottest issues of the day.  It's hard to fathom why local GOP leaders truly thought this rule was a good idea.  It will do nothing but drive a deeper wedge between establishment and tea party type grassroots activists.

The only answer that makes any sense is F.E.A.R.  The local GOP establishment seems to have fallen into the trap laid by fear - believing in the falsehoods that conflict equates to weakness, that anything but total unanimity of opinion leads to failure.  The reality will be just the opposite.

After what happened on Saturday, how do establishment Republicans expect to say with a straight face that all factions should support the eventual nominee for US Senate - their assumption of course being that the nominee will be Speaker Thom Tillis.  This rule change effectively says "we do not want to hear your opinion."  Passing it in the way it was done - without significant early notice - says "dirty pool" is Ok. 

With Mecklenburg having the 2nd largest number of Republicans in the state, this was a terribly risky maneuver by the MeckGOP to achieve effectively nothing of value. This rule plays right into the problem outlined in this piece nearly a year ago - making it much harder to repair any damage after the primary season is over.  If Republicans lose the US Senate race, regardless of who the nominee turns out to be, it will be actions like this that are to blame as much as anything else.

By comparison, at Monday night's WakeGOP convention leaders seemed more inclined to do the right thing in the face of a possibly less than favorable outcome for the establishment.  Wake is the largest GOP county in the state.  They did a straw poll (something the MeckGOP also avoided) and they let the chips fall where they may.

Here are the results: Brannon 45%, Tillis 33%, Harris 20%, all others 2%.

They were not overcome by F.E.A.R.

After bumpy week on the campaign trail, MeckGOP Convention looms for Team Tillis

Last week was maybe the roughest PR week yet for the Tillis Campaign in the run-up to the May 6th primary for the US Senate race.  How well he bounces back will be interesting to watch.  Here are the highlights of what went down:

• Wednesday, the Harris Campaign released results of an internal push poll.  The "poll" shows that when "character" questions are raised about Thom Tillis, he falls from 1st place to 3rd behind Harris and Greg Brannon.  Regardless of the source, or the probable flaws in the sampling technique of a campaign's internal poll, or the hypocrisy of using unethical push polling to question another candidate's character, these results do show that raising these questions does very negatively impact the results for the Speaker.
• Thursday saw the rise of a story about Thom Tillis's college education history.  The story was broken by TalkingPointsMemo website.  It pointed out multiple occasions both on websites and in interviews where the Speaker's college credentials were incorrectly stated as being from University of Maryland at College Park (the flagship of the Maryland system) rather than University of Maryland University College (a primarily online college).  The Tillis campaign brushed this off as a simple mistake (and it very well may be), but it plays right into the vein of  questioning that the Harris poll was attacking.
• Finally, on Friday Thom Tillis's old opponent for the NC98 legislative seat - John Rhodes - unloaded a barrage of ethical questions about the Speaker from Cornelius Town Hall.  Tillis supporters dismiss this as nothing but sour grapes by an old political foe, but again it plays right into Harris's argument. 

Obviously a rough week no campaign wants to repeat.

Against this backdrop, Mecklenburg Republicans head to their County Convention this coming Saturday.  At last year's convention, delegates unanimously passed a resolution against HOT Lanes - one of the Speaker's signature "achievements".  See MeckGOP Raises the Political Stakes for HOT Lanes Supporters for the details on the events a year ago.  Somewhat ironically, HOT Lanes are once again in the local news as the final proposals for the project are scheduled to be submitted at the end of this month.  How this issue plays out at this year's MeckGOP convention will be fun to watch   as candidates use their opposition to the plan as something to distinguish themselves or have to defend against their support for it.

Then there will, maybe, probably not be the straw poll. (See update below)

Greg Brannon and Mark Harris have each racked up wins in straw polls at these conventions across the state.  Speaker Tillis won big recently in a straw poll in Lincoln County but did less well in a closer victory at the Iredell County GOP Convention.

Straw polls often don't mean much.  They are made up only of strong partisans and activists.  They aren't representative of the whole political party - much less the general electorate.  Their main value is in the crowing that can be done by the victor.  However, the importance of Mecklenburg's might be different.  Mecklenburg County has the second largest number of Republicans in the state.  (Wake has the most.)  Mecklenburg is also home to two of the top candidates - Mark Harris and Thom Tillis.  How Mecklenburg goes could very well determine the outcome of this primary.  Reading the tea leaves on any data point - even one like a straw poll - could provide some important insights.

For Thom Tillis there's no real upside to a MeckGOP straw poll - only downside risk.  If Tillis wins big, the other candidates can brush it off as 'expected' in the Speaker's home county.  However, if Tillis does not win big, that will be trumpeted by his opponents as a real sign of vulnerability.  With Mark Harris also calling Mecklenburg home, he should do well.  Greg Brannon has a strong following among the local Tea Party crowd - a group that goes to conventions and votes.

There was a real effort last year by those running the convention to minimize the impact of the unanimous vote against the HOT Lanes the Speaker supports.  It wouldn't be surprising to see similar efforts around a straw poll this Saturday. 

The best outcome for the Speaker is to not even have one.

Bonus Observation: After doubling down on the "character" line of attack this week, it seems safe to say the Harris Campaign is in it to win it.  This should dispel the notion that he's nothing but a stalking horse for Thom Tillis. See Tillis accuses Harris of 'going negative' and Harris fires back.

Update: Word has been received that there likely will not be a straw poll at tomorrow's convention.  Apparently, Mecklenburg typically does not have them regularly at this event.  Smaller counties regularly have them, but apparently larger ones sometimes do not.  However, GOP straw polls in large counties do have recent precedent during Federal election years.  Wake County, the largest GOP county in the state, had one at their 2012 convention.  The MeckGOP also had one at its 2012 countywide precinct meeting.  In fact, google searches show all of the top five GOP counties having some form of straw poll at some form of party event during 2012.

NCSEN Candidates put on a good show in Huntersville

Some great political theater came to Huntersville Thursday night.

The show was put on by the new Lake Norman Conservatives activist group with all the ingredients for a solid performance - good speakers, good organization, and a good crowd.  If they can repeat it on a regular basis, the group could be in for a long run on the political stage here in North Mecklenburg.

Over 150 people packed the main room plus overflow
to see GOP NCSEN candidates Thursday night.

A packed house with overflow seating came to hear the three GOP candidates for US Senate who were on hand to answer questions - Greg Brannon, Mark Harris, and Heather Grant.  Bill Flynn had committed to the forum but dropped out of the race all together on Thursday morning.  There was the now-standard empty chair with Thom Tillis's name on it.  Media was on hand including Jim Morrill from the Charlotte Observer as well as a reporter from the Associated Press.  An operative from a pro-Hagan PAC was even thought to be seen circulating in the audience.  Coverage of the event got some national attention   

There was a definite Tea Party vibe to the event and the crowd.  Guerrilla videographer Chuck Suter was on hand.  Multiple small cameras were taking it all in.  Christian Hine, President of CAUTION - Charlotte's main outlet for the Tea Party movement - served as the forum's moderator.  The crowd was a bit younger, a bit more diverse, a bit more casually dressed than your average Republican Party affair.  But make no mistake, they were equally as intense and interested as any you will meet in this area.

When the questions started flying all three candidates presented themselves well.  Dr Brannon has been on the stump for a while now.  His delivery and detailed references to the Constitution are delivered with ease.  Reverend Harris is as polished as you'd expect from a someone used to speaking with passion in front of a crowds.  Heather Grant more than held her own. 

Seeing all of these candidates debate alongside of Thom Tillis would certainly have been interesting.   But while Thom Tillis wasn't there in person and hardly mentioned at all during the evening, his supporters weren't going to cede any ground on social media during the event.  A quick glance at Twitter showed the #NCSEN hashtag being bombarded with several Pro-Tillis tweets right at 7pm when the event was scheduled to kick-off.  Coordinated by the campaign or just coincidence, they came mostly from a single account and appeared to be staged in advance and ready to fire from right at 7pm until roughly 7:30.  An effort to dilute the "where's Thom" tweets expected to pop up at the same time?  So, while Team Tillis seemingly wants to publicly ignore the other candidates in the primary race, it also appears they may not be taking any chances on letting the opponents have any free shots.



Sources say that 50+ people stopped by
to help open the Brannon for Senate
campaign office in Cornelius

With all sides gearing up for the final 90 day push to the May primary, ignoring the opposition will be harder and harder to do for Team Tillis.  That's a task made even more difficult with the Brannon Campaign opening an office in Cornelius on Friday - right down the street from entrance to the Peninsula neighborhood - almost literally right in Speaker Tillis's back yard.

Act One of this NCGOP primary drama is almost over with the main characters all set.  The main question is will the story of this primary season end after Act Two in May or will there be a surprise Act Three and a run-off in July?

Pivotal Week in 2014 NC US Senate Campaign Fundraising

It's probably too early in the 2014 race for US Senate to be using words like "pivotal", but a week from this week ends the 2nd quarter fund raising period and when the numbers come out, it could have a significant impact on the Republican primary election for NC Senate nearly 11 months away.

Like it or not, running for the US Senate requires a lot of money and much of that comes from outside groups.  Those groups look at a candidate's own fundraising as an important barometer of potential success.  If a candidate can raise money on his own, then it becomes much more likely these outside organizations will lend their support, and that's why this week is important..

With only Dr Greg Brannon and Speaker Thom Tillis as announced candidates for the Republican nomination, pundits, the campaigns, and those various outside groups will be pouring over the results and making decisions.  For Dr Brannon a solid report would greatly improve the likelihood a group like Americans for Prosperity, the Senate Conservatives Fund, or even the Club for Growth could get into the campaign on his behalf.  For Speaker Tillis it will show if his typically robust fundraising has kept pace or fallen off.

For sure, if any outside money comes into the contest to support the Brannon campaign, that would significantly change the future dynamics of the race and show belief that recent polling and the results of the NCGOP Convention straw poll may have long-term legs.  It would also help counter the large sums of money Speaker Tillis has been collecting from the payday lending and sweepstakes gaming lobbies.

To help the Brannon Campaign reach its goal and possibly generate some of that nationwide help, various grassroots groups are organizing a moneybomb this week as a final push before the fundraising period ends.  How that pans out will be interesting to watch.

NC Senate Candidate appearances fizzle in North Meck. Media spectacle avoided?

The post-NCGOP appearances in North Mecklenburg scheduled by Greg Brannon and Thom Tillis for Monday and Tuesday both fizzled this week as the candidates had to get back to their "day jobs".

Monday afternoon, the Brannon campaign announced that Dr Brannon could not "get away from the hospital" for a meet and greet in Cornelius after being in Charlotte all weekend.  This event will be rescheduled sometime soon.

Tuesday evening, Speaker Tillis was scheduled to speak at the North Mecklenburg Republican Women's meeting in Huntersville.  However, a long-running Appropriations Committee meeting prevented him from catching his ride out of Raleigh with Rep. Charles Jeter and Ms Tillis.

In the end babies and the budget are more important than campaign events.

However, if there was one person breathing a sigh of relief at these cancellations, it has to be Speaker Tillis's new media consultant for the US Senate campaign - Brad Todd.  Just a few days on the job, Mr Todd may have lucked into avoiding a media disaster at the NMRW meeting.

Being the first local appearance in North Meck after announcing his candidacy, Speaker Tillis would have faced a large contingent of angry voters Tuesday night in a forum that should have been a celebration and an easy kick-off to his campaign.  Instead, the packed room was heavily populated with people who wanted to talk about HOT lanes - the unpopular local project where he's the prime supporter in Raleigh.  Several known faces from WidenI77.org were present, but judging by the reaction and murmurs during Rep Jeter's remarks on the subject, there were many other opponents of the project in the crowd as well.  It likely would not have been pretty.  What would have made matters worse is that this event would have had television media coverage.  (The Channel 14 news van was seen leaving just prior to the event's start time once it was known the Speaker would not be there.)

Coming on the heals of Sunday's events, avoiding a second less-than-positive engagement with the party faithful in the candidate's back yard in a single week (this one televised) was likely considered a godsend for the new media management operation over at Team Tillis.

NMRW Crowd

North Carolina US Senate candidates appearing in North Meck next week.

For those of you who won't get enough GOP politics at this weekend's NCGOP convention in Charlotte, there are a couple of events early next week that may interest you.  Both announced GOP candidates for the 2014 US Senate race will be appearing in North Meck early next week.  Both events should be interesting coming on the heals of the convention.

Monday, June 10th 6:30 - 9:00pm

Dr Greg Brannon will host a meet and greet at "On the Roxx" in Cornelius.

19712 1 Norman Blvd
Ste 100
Cornelius, NC 28031

See the Facebook invite here.

Tuesday, June 11th  6:00pm

Rep.Thom Tillis will be the guest speaker at the North Mecklenburg Republican Women monthly meeting.

15801 Northstone Drive
Huntersville, NC 28078

See the Facebook invite here.

Follow-up: Electoral Politics of Widening I-77

As a follow-up to the last post, a commenter on the piece over at PunditHouse.com took issue with pointing out that there are 170k Republicans in Mecklenburg county and that they certainly all would not be voting in the 2014 US Senate primary.  He also took issue with comparing Greg Brannon to Ted Cruz and what happened in the Texas primary in 2012.

Here is the response.

Certainly, not all of the 170k Meck Republicans will turn out in 2014.   However, percentages are relative. For example, using the Republican 2012 presidential primary as a comparison Meck Republicans cast 7.75% of all the registered Republican votes cast in the that primary. If one includes all voters regardless of party registration who chose to vote in the Republican primary, Meck represented 8.05% of all the votes cast in the statewide Republican primary. It's reasonable to presume the overall percentage of Meck voters in the 2014 primary will be somewhat close to those numbers.  These numbers came from the Civitas Vote Tracker website.

The point is that regardless of the total number of voters that turn out, Mecklenburg's percentage will likely be a big chunk of that and Speaker Tillis's position on toll roads will not sit well with a significant portion of that chunk. If one also considers that primaries have a larger percentage of partisan and activist turnout, that could also be bad for Speaker Tillis. From what I've seen, many of those types are the most upset with the toll road plan.

As for comparing Dr Brannon to Ted Cruz that's hard to say. I haven't followed either of them too closely. That comparison was more to the point that anything can happen if a race goes to a runoff.  However, since the question was asked. That got me thinking.

I looked for polling numbers from this point in the 2012 Texas primary race and what I found was interesting. This poll from Public Policy Polling on the 2012 Texas primary done in early 2011 had David Dewhurst at 23% with Ted Cruz at only 3%. Ron Paul had 21% at that time. While it might be correct in saying Brannon is not Ted Cruz, it would also be accurate to say Thom Tillis is not David Dewhurst. In this recent poll (also done by PPP) on the upcoming NC Senate contest (done roughly at the same early point in the election cycle) Greg Brannon is at 7% and Thom Tillis is at 6%. Yes, Texas is more conservative than North Carolina, but that's more of an issue for the general election. In the primary, the dynamics certainly could be similar.

The Electoral Politics of Widening I-77

Politics is a numbers game - always has been, always will be.

But the numbers behind the politics of widening I-77 are not just the ones you read about in the papers.  They aren't just about spending over $500,000,000 dollars to add lanes to less than 30 miles of road.  It's not just the 20, 30, or 40 years the pro-toll side tells citizens they will have to wait if this project does not go forward as currently planned using tolls.  It's not just the zero other options they say exist.

In many ways those numbers are just sound and fury signifying nothing.  If you've attended more than one of the numerous debates, discussions, and presentations that have been held around the area or read any of the countless articles published by all types of media, you'll realize these numbers are always changing.  They are moving targets and nobody really knows the true answer to many of the questions asked.

There are numbers though that are very real and may ultimately drive the final decision, or at least influence how some of our local leaders behave on the road to getting there.  Those numbers are 1023, 242, and 8.6.

Here's the hard reality of our coming election cycles.  Our North Mecklenburg members of the General Assembly, all of them Republicans, should all have some reasonable concern that if they end up on the wrong side of this issue it could cut short their tenures in Raleigh or shoot down their attempts at higher office.  With House Speaker and North Mecklenburg representative, Thom Tillis, finally announcing his entry into the 2014 US Senate race this week, it's time to take a look at what the HOT Lanes decision could mean when it comes to our elections.

So what about those numbers?

1023. That's the margin of victory for Charles Jeter in his close race for the newly created NC-92 legislative district.  It is one of only a handful of truly swing districts in the state.  If he supports HOT lanes, he will lose votes in North Mecklenburg, his base.  Will he lose enough to cost him reelection if he faces a half-decent Democrat as a challenger?  Who knows?  Does he want to risk it?  His recent actions are inconclusive.

This legislative session, Rep Jeter submitted bill H157, one of his first, that would limit the use of transportation funds to transportation projects.  The bill met the crossover deadline, and he has heavily promoted his support of the bill making sure everyone is aware of his desire to spend our road money wisely.  He spoke about the bill at the February LKN Chamber "Focus Friday" gathering.  His comments at the Chamber also indicated that he might be open to considering other options on I-77, or that at least he had not made up his mind on the project.  He seemed to be really trying to reassure people he's not a full-blown supporter of the current plan for tolls on I-77.

Here's the thing.  It won't work...not unless he comes down firmly in the camp opposing the project. Saying you are not a strong supporter of a project is not the same as saying you oppose a project.    Unless, he actively opposes the I-77 HOT Lanes project, he loses votes.  Period.  Unfortunately, Rep Jeter missed his best opportunity recently to actually oppose the project when he voted against the amendment to H267 which would have required the legislature to vote on toll projects before implementation.  See H267: Redux - NC House really, really, really doesn't want to vote on tolling you for the details on that vote.

Actions speak louder than words, and in this case Rep Jeter chose not to take an action that matches his words.

The next number is 242, as in Cornelius Precinct 242.  This precinct in State Senator Jeff Tarte's home town voted overwhelmingly for him in the July 2012 runoff which ended the bitter primary campaign last election cycle for NC Senate 41.  In fact, Senator Tarte's margin of victory for the entire race was covered by just this one precinct.  He defeated his opponent, John Aneralla, by a total of 193 votes, and he won Precinct 242 by 203 votes.  Precinct 242 lies in the heart of the proposed I-77 HOT Lane plan.  Any fall off in support here and in neighboring precincts would hurt in the event of another primary challenge.

Admittedly, a primary challenge is not very likely, and Senator Tarte has insulated himself considerably in this region of the district with his efforts to fix the county's broken revaluation process.  For example, see When the politicians get it right... on some of the positive publicity he deserves on that issue.  However, Cornelius is also the home base for opposition to the HOT Lanes plan.  Many Cornelians who were convinced that Jeff Tarte was the best choice last time might think otherwise if given a choice in another primary and he is perceived to have done nothing to stop the toll plan. 

Earlier in the HOT Lanes debate they were seeing things like this tweet from their State Senator.  It's a picture of a traffic jam on a 20 lane road and implies this is what proponents of general purpose lanes are trying to foist on the public.

When asked about this tweet, here was the response...

That was back in February.  Now, in a current and ongoing conversation on Senator Tarte's Facebook page, he's openly discussing the issue.  Readers should definitely check it out.  In its own way, the below comment from Senator Tarte is rather refreshing.

"When folks send you messages they will hold you accountable at the polls - that is kind of petty and senseless - because it is not really a threat, it is how our political process works. If one does not want their actions judged, you should not run for elected public office. Being held accountable on every Election Day is one of the things that makes our system the greatest method of governing that man has known to date. Please hold me accountable on every issue as well as my entire body of work."

Senator Tarte is in a "safe" seat for Republicans, but his support for the HOT Lanes option on I-77 will definitely make it less so for him personally in the event someone challenges him and makes this a central issue in a primary campaign.

And finally, that last number of 8.6.  According to the most recent numbers on the State and Mecklenburg County Board of Elections sites, 8.6% of all North Carolina Republicans live in Mecklenburg County - 170k out of a total 1.98m to be more exact.

If there is any unrest among that group of Republicans it will have an impact on the next major statewide political race here in North Carolina - the 2014 race for Kay Hagan's US Senate seat.

Last week NC Speaker of the House and North Mecklenburg Representative, Thom Tillis, announced his candidacy for that seat.

However, to get a shot at that seat, he must first come out on top in a primary.  Being a main driver of a very unpopular project in his home county which contains a sizable chunk of the state's Republicans, does not help that cause.  It does not help it at all, and he can only lose votes because of it.  Dr Greg Brannon, the only other candidate officially in the race, mentioned the HOT Lanes issue as part of his "welcome letter" to Speaker Tillis for the 2014 Senate contest - ensuring that this is an issue which will be part of the primary campaign.

To win a first primary outright, a candidate needs 40% of the statewide vote.  Losing any sizable chunk of voters who should be in his camp will make that much more difficult for Thom Tillis.  If a race like this goes to a runoff, then it's anyone's guess who comes out the winner.  Ted Cruz's runoff victory in Texas being the obvious comparison.

And if Speaker Tillis makes it out of the primary?  In the general election that 8.6% will be even more critical.  The general election race for US Senate will likely be very close with no margin for error.

A cautionary example would be the 2008 race between Pat McCrory and Beverly Purdue.  The moderate Mayor Pat lost that race by a razor thin margin. One has to wonder how much of that margin was due to Mecklenburg County conservatives who didn't vote for him after his championing the Uptown arena and light rail.

As the clock ticks away on the HOT Lanes issue, more and more voters will be lost.  The only question is just how high that number goes.

2014 NC Senate Race Starts to Take Shape

A few big things happened this past week giving shape to the NC Senate contest which will likely consume much of the political oxygen in the state over the next year.

Late last week a new Super PAC was formed to support a potential run by NC Speaker and North Mecklenburg Representative, Thom Tillis. See Super PAC to tout North Carolina House speaker via "The Center for Public Integrity" for details on the PAC.  It's led by establishment political consultant, Michael Luethy. 

The PAC formed as Tillis said he was taking the Memorial Day holiday weekend to do some final considering on taking the plunge and officially entering the race.  However, the wait is apparently over as the WRAL in Raleigh is reporting Thursday evening that Mr Tillis has officially announced as candidate for US Senate.

Also this week, NC Labor Secretary, Cherie Berry, announced that she would not be running.  This takes one of the leading candidates for the Republican nomination out of the contest.  Ms. Berry enjoyed widespread name recognition as the "elevator queen" with her picture posted in every elevator in the state. (Everybody rides elevators!)

Other candidates will likely announce soon. However, with Dr. Greg Brannon already in the race - running as the "liberty" candidate, and Reverend Mark Harris of Charlotte considering a run as well, Republican primary voters will likely have at least one choice from each of the three main wings of the Party - Libertarian Leaning Republicans, Socially Conservative Republicans, and Establishment Republicans.  Dr. Brannon has been traveling the state gaining support among grassroots activists including Tea Partiers.  Reverend Harris helped lead the effort to pass Amendment 1 last year gaining him support among Social Conservatives.  Speaker Tillis rounds out the group as the only announced Establishment candidate.

How this all pans out for the Republican Primary next May will be very interesting to watch.  While Speaker Tillis should enjoy an immediate advantage in fundraising, he also has problems to address - mostly of his own making.

In recent weeks, there has been a brewing revolt in the Legislature among more conservative House members.  Much of that revolt stems from a sense that Speaker Tillis has been managing bills this session for the benefit of a future Senate bid, overly moderating many pieces of legislation when the Republicans have super-majorities in both chambers of the Legislature.  That will likely only get worse now that he has officially announced  There is also lingering animosity in certain quarters that he influenced various legislative primaries in the past election cycle, supporting more moderate candidates over more conservative choices.  Finally, there are specific policies such as his support for toll roads which will impact voters in certain locals around the state.

How these issues all play out will likely have a significant impact on the Republican primary, and none of them will likely go away easily.

One thing is for sure, these events will all make next week's NCGOP Convention in Charlotte much more interesting to watch.