#MeckGOP, party unity, and a bad case of foot shooting

More than just about anything this election season, the Republican Party is in need of some party unity.

Last night local Republicans in the MeckGOP had a golden opportunity to achieve a little of that.  Instead party leaders chose to engage in a little foot shooting of their very own feet.

The MeckGOP Executive Committee met Wednesday night to pick a replacement for NC-92 Rep Charles Jeter of Huntersville.  The party needed a replacement both for the remainder of Jeter's term through January and for the ballot this November.  The hands down obvious choice for both spots going into the meeting was to pick Jeter's primary opponent, Tom Davis.

Davis had a long list of endorsements from elected officials including the other two elected members to the NCGA from the North Mecklenburg area, Senator Jeff Tarte and Rep John Bradford.  Davis even got the endorsement from his former opponent Charles Jeter.  That says a lot about Jeter (and Davis) after what was a sharp and pointed primary campaign.

A former campaign worker of Jeter's, Stacy Phillips, posted a complete list of Davis's endorsements to Facebook the day before the meeting.

Then came the meeting Wednesday night and a series of surprises.  Yours truly was not at the meeting, nor have I spoken to any of the parties directly involved since last night.  However, a good bit was posted on Facebook by those who were in the room and were involved.

The first surprise was that Davis was not going to seek the spot on the ballot.  Instead, former Huntersville Commissioner Danae Caulfield was going to seek that appointment.  Caulfied had been a supporter of Davis's since he announced he would be seeking the replacement appointments immediately after Jeter announced his resignation in July.  Caulfield however would NOT be seeking the appointment to fill out Jeter's remaining term.  Davis was going to continue seeking that spot.

Here's how Caulfied explained it in response to the below question from Meck County Commissioner Matthew Ridenhour.  Ridenhour had endorsed Davis.

Caulfield was unanimously selected to be on the ballot by the 7 members of the MeckGOP Executive Committee present from NC92 allowed to vote.

The crazy and unity damaging part of the meeting came when it was time to replace Jeter for the remainder of the current term that ends in January - a mere 4+ months away.  Keep in mind, the NCGA is out of session and not much if anything is going on at the moment in Raleigh  It's election time and those running for office are in their home districts campaigning.

Letting Davis fill the remainder of the term made sense.  He had nearly beaten Jeter in the primary.  He had all the endorsements listed previously and doing so would be a GREAT way to show a little party unity.

Out of the blue, Justin Moore who is apparently a long time activist with the MeckGOP threw his name into the hat for the nomination.

Moore gets the nod, 5-1.

Huntersville Mayor John Aneralla voted for Davis.  Huntersville Commissioners Rob Kidwell and Melinda Bales voted along with 3 others to give the seat to Moore.

The news of this outcome swept social media.  Much of the response would best be classified as anger that Davis had been snubbed.

In response, Moore had this to say on Thursday.

Moore who also had a vote in the decision abstained on Wednesday. Though clearly, he had already counted the votes.  His vote wasn't needed.  That's politics.

But seeking a seat for a few months when there is effectively nothing to do at the expense of an opportunity to foster some party unity, that's certainly not good politics.

County Commissioner Jim Puckett said it best at the end of a long post Tuesday night on the whole series of events.

"Tonight five members of the GOP executive committee decided they knew better than all of the above.  It was another eye-opening example of why the public is disgusted with politics in general.  Contrary to what Donald Trump and Bernie Saunders believe political party politics is not rigged, it is just stupid."

#MeckGOP meets Wednesday to decide replacement for NC92

Correction: The original said there were a few dozen Ex Comm members from NC92.  aShortChronicle has since been told it is only 8. 

The DailyHaymaker.com broke the story over the weekend about the MeckGOP finally calling a meeting to replace Charles Jeter as the NC-92 Representative to the NC House and to pick a replacement candidate for the upcoming election.

According to the copy of the email from MeckGOP Chair Clair Mahoney posted in the story,

"As per Article XV.B of the Mecklenburg County Republican Party Plan of Organization, the purpose of the meeting is to recommend to the Governor the name of an individual to fill the vacancy created by Representative Charles Jeter’s resignation from House District 92 seat, which was effective as of July 25, 2016, and to select a person to fill the vacancy in the Republican nomination for House District 92. No other business may be considered at this meeting."

The appointment to fill out the remainder of of the term vacated by Jeter is somewhat of a non-issue since the NCGA won't be back in session prior to election day - unless for some unexpected reason an emergency special session is needed.

Of more importance to voters is the decision on who replaces Jeter as the Republican candidate in the upcoming election.

Jeter's primary opponent, Tom Davis, is pursuing both.  He's clearly the most logical candidate for the job having just barely missed beating Jeter outright in the spring primary.  He has also lined up several endorsements from local electeds in North Mecklenburg. However, he's apparently not alone in wanting the spot.  A few contacts with those familiar with these kind of meetings predict more than just Davis's name could/will be put up.

Depending on who shows up to the meeting and how many candidates names are nominated, this process could be non-eventful or a real barn burner.

Only MeckGOP Executive Committee members residing in NC92 will be able to vote.  That would only be 8 people, but then not all of them will possibly show up for the meeting.  That means the candidate could be chosen by only a relative handful of people.

With tensions high around several issues, the I77 HOT Lanes project in particular, dirty politics could certainly enter into the mix.

Regardless of the replacement candidate selected, there is the also the question of actually getting on the ballot.

A call into the Mecklenburg Board of Elections Monday morning didn't provide a lot of clarity.  Kristin Mavromatis with the BOE office told aShortChronicle that "no guidance had been received from the State" yet on whether or not a replacement candidate can get on the ballot at this point.  That's the same answer from the BOE as it was three weeks ago right after Jeter resigned.

While it may ultimately be determined that a candidate replacement is allowed, if ballots have already been printed there would be a cost to fixing that (if it's even possible).

While Wednesday night's decision is important, it won't be the last important one for NC-92 voters before casting their ballots this election.

Bonus Observation:  One interesting and unanswered question is why did the MeckGOP wait this long to schedule this meeting?  The MeckGOP waited three weeks .  On the same day the announcement came on the MeckGOP meeting, another Sr NCGOP figure resigned, Majority Leader Mike Hagar from NC 112.  The meeting for his replacement by trhe Rutherford County GOP was announced the same day Hagar resigned.  That meeting is also scheduled for August 17th.

Would the MeckGOP have even bothered to replace Jeter if they were not put on the spot by this other resignation?

It's that kind of lingering question that should give everone pause that they will do the right thing on Wednesday.

NMRW Provides Safe Harbor for Thom Tillis

If you listen to the pundits and believe the polls, it would be hard to describe the past few weeks as "smooth sailing" for the Thom Tillis campaign trying to capture the North Carolina US Senate seat up for grabs this election cycle.  Tillis has been trailing Kay Hagan by a stubborn three to five percentage points in the RealClearPolitics.com polling average.  At the same time, while most national pundits recently started talking about a building Republican wave across the country, those same pundits invariably mention the North Carolina Senate race as the outlier or exception to that trend.

Against that backdrop, the Tillis campaign pulled into a safe harbor at last week’s North Mecklenburg Republican Women's Club annual "Pig Pickin and Politickin" event at the Peninsula Club on Lake Norman.  It was a homecoming of sorts for the local politician now shooting for one of the highest elected offices in the land.  The NMRW is the official Republican Party outlet here in North Mecklenburg, and Thom Tillis was one of the charter “associate members” when club formed in 2009.  He has been a regular guest speaker ever since.

To give you a sense of how much interest there is in this race, organizers turned away television outlets from as far away as Japan.  There was extra security on hand and club members were on the lookout for Hagan campaign "trackers" or unwelcome guerilla videographers trying to make their way into the private event - big-time preparations for a group more accustomed to events covering legislative updates and local town issues.

When it came time for Thom Tillis to take the stage you could sense the anticipation in the air.  Attendees wanted to see the fire and passion they know exists in the Republican candidate - their candidate.  It's a passion and a fight that some see missing from the Tillis campaign commercials airing in recent weeks.

Thom Tillis delivered!

In a speech lasting about 10 minutes, Tillis hit a number of the red meat topics for the roughly 150 party faithful in attendance.  He covered immigration by stating "we need to seal the border" - even going as far as saying Ronald Reagan "got it wrong" with his amnesty in the '80s.  He criticized President Obama for hiding from the issues with Obamacare by pushing back its implementation dates - ensuring voters get the next round of cancellation notices only after election-day.  Turning to foreign affairs, he took a strong stand in taking on the Islamic State (ISIS) and referenced the beheading of a British aid worker earlier that day.  Of course, he also pegged Kay Hagan for her part in supporting the President’s handling of all these issues.

When talking about the campaign itself, Tillis did not seem at all concerned.  He referenced his own internal polling showing the race knotted at 44% along with the expectation that undecided voters would break his way.  His take on the race so far was that he had withstood a massive amount of Democratic spending going all the way back to last November while his team had kept their powder dry until after Labor Day.  He said that when asked how he feels about this race, his answer is that he feels the same way he did at this point in 2010 when he was orchestrating a Republican takeover of the legislature.  In that election 16 House races were successfully targeted including a number where Democrats were expected to win.

In short, he displayed the confidence of someone who has done this before all across the state, someone who knows his electorate, and someone who understands what is coming over the next few weeks until election-day.  If that Thom Tillis comes through in the ads and debates between now and November 4th, the national pundits who have all but written off this contest could very well be in for a big surprise.

Look for this post and others in the Herald Weekly.

Fear and Loathing on the Road to the NCSEN Primary

"The stage lay set in a perfectly diabolical manner.  All the pieces were in place. 

The pesky media stood docilely outside - locked out by having the event in a church.  A similar tactic worked well when the mafia needed to meet away from the prying eyes of law enforcement - using their doctors' and lawyers' offices to gain a certain freedom to conduct business.   If a tactic like that worked for them, why not for a political party convention?

The plan for the new rules change had been kept secret and hidden like an assassin's poison ready to do it's ugly work.  The snake-oil salesmen rehearsed their pitches well to ensure it was taken in by the audience with ease - ready to spin anyone brave enough to try and talk some sense into the crowd. 

A sense of F.E.A.R. - False Evidence Appearing Real - permeated the room."

Channeling Hunter S Thompson and picturing a large, free-flowing vat of electric cool-aid provides the best way to make sense of what happened last Saturday at the MeckGOP convention after reading this piece by Christian Hine over at PunditHouse.com. 

Rule 19(a) as passed by the latest MeckGOP convention effectively eliminates issue-based resolutions at the county convention.  This comes on the heals of the unanimous issue based resolution against HOT lanes at last year's convention.  The rule will likely become a divisive lightning rod in future conventions as one can picture grassroots activists repeatedly trying (and failing) to get a supermajority to override the rule and pass resolutions on the hottest issues of the day.  It's hard to fathom why local GOP leaders truly thought this rule was a good idea.  It will do nothing but drive a deeper wedge between establishment and tea party type grassroots activists.

The only answer that makes any sense is F.E.A.R.  The local GOP establishment seems to have fallen into the trap laid by fear - believing in the falsehoods that conflict equates to weakness, that anything but total unanimity of opinion leads to failure.  The reality will be just the opposite.

After what happened on Saturday, how do establishment Republicans expect to say with a straight face that all factions should support the eventual nominee for US Senate - their assumption of course being that the nominee will be Speaker Thom Tillis.  This rule change effectively says "we do not want to hear your opinion."  Passing it in the way it was done - without significant early notice - says "dirty pool" is Ok. 

With Mecklenburg having the 2nd largest number of Republicans in the state, this was a terribly risky maneuver by the MeckGOP to achieve effectively nothing of value. This rule plays right into the problem outlined in this piece nearly a year ago - making it much harder to repair any damage after the primary season is over.  If Republicans lose the US Senate race, regardless of who the nominee turns out to be, it will be actions like this that are to blame as much as anything else.

By comparison, at Monday night's WakeGOP convention leaders seemed more inclined to do the right thing in the face of a possibly less than favorable outcome for the establishment.  Wake is the largest GOP county in the state.  They did a straw poll (something the MeckGOP also avoided) and they let the chips fall where they may.

Here are the results: Brannon 45%, Tillis 33%, Harris 20%, all others 2%.

They were not overcome by F.E.A.R.

After bumpy week on the campaign trail, MeckGOP Convention looms for Team Tillis

Last week was maybe the roughest PR week yet for the Tillis Campaign in the run-up to the May 6th primary for the US Senate race.  How well he bounces back will be interesting to watch.  Here are the highlights of what went down:

• Wednesday, the Harris Campaign released results of an internal push poll.  The "poll" shows that when "character" questions are raised about Thom Tillis, he falls from 1st place to 3rd behind Harris and Greg Brannon.  Regardless of the source, or the probable flaws in the sampling technique of a campaign's internal poll, or the hypocrisy of using unethical push polling to question another candidate's character, these results do show that raising these questions does very negatively impact the results for the Speaker.
• Thursday saw the rise of a story about Thom Tillis's college education history.  The story was broken by TalkingPointsMemo website.  It pointed out multiple occasions both on websites and in interviews where the Speaker's college credentials were incorrectly stated as being from University of Maryland at College Park (the flagship of the Maryland system) rather than University of Maryland University College (a primarily online college).  The Tillis campaign brushed this off as a simple mistake (and it very well may be), but it plays right into the vein of  questioning that the Harris poll was attacking.
• Finally, on Friday Thom Tillis's old opponent for the NC98 legislative seat - John Rhodes - unloaded a barrage of ethical questions about the Speaker from Cornelius Town Hall.  Tillis supporters dismiss this as nothing but sour grapes by an old political foe, but again it plays right into Harris's argument. 

Obviously a rough week no campaign wants to repeat.

Against this backdrop, Mecklenburg Republicans head to their County Convention this coming Saturday.  At last year's convention, delegates unanimously passed a resolution against HOT Lanes - one of the Speaker's signature "achievements".  See MeckGOP Raises the Political Stakes for HOT Lanes Supporters for the details on the events a year ago.  Somewhat ironically, HOT Lanes are once again in the local news as the final proposals for the project are scheduled to be submitted at the end of this month.  How this issue plays out at this year's MeckGOP convention will be fun to watch   as candidates use their opposition to the plan as something to distinguish themselves or have to defend against their support for it.

Then there will, maybe, probably not be the straw poll. (See update below)

Greg Brannon and Mark Harris have each racked up wins in straw polls at these conventions across the state.  Speaker Tillis won big recently in a straw poll in Lincoln County but did less well in a closer victory at the Iredell County GOP Convention.

Straw polls often don't mean much.  They are made up only of strong partisans and activists.  They aren't representative of the whole political party - much less the general electorate.  Their main value is in the crowing that can be done by the victor.  However, the importance of Mecklenburg's might be different.  Mecklenburg County has the second largest number of Republicans in the state.  (Wake has the most.)  Mecklenburg is also home to two of the top candidates - Mark Harris and Thom Tillis.  How Mecklenburg goes could very well determine the outcome of this primary.  Reading the tea leaves on any data point - even one like a straw poll - could provide some important insights.

For Thom Tillis there's no real upside to a MeckGOP straw poll - only downside risk.  If Tillis wins big, the other candidates can brush it off as 'expected' in the Speaker's home county.  However, if Tillis does not win big, that will be trumpeted by his opponents as a real sign of vulnerability.  With Mark Harris also calling Mecklenburg home, he should do well.  Greg Brannon has a strong following among the local Tea Party crowd - a group that goes to conventions and votes.

There was a real effort last year by those running the convention to minimize the impact of the unanimous vote against the HOT Lanes the Speaker supports.  It wouldn't be surprising to see similar efforts around a straw poll this Saturday. 

The best outcome for the Speaker is to not even have one.

Bonus Observation: After doubling down on the "character" line of attack this week, it seems safe to say the Harris Campaign is in it to win it.  This should dispel the notion that he's nothing but a stalking horse for Thom Tillis. See Tillis accuses Harris of 'going negative' and Harris fires back.

Update: Word has been received that there likely will not be a straw poll at tomorrow's convention.  Apparently, Mecklenburg typically does not have them regularly at this event.  Smaller counties regularly have them, but apparently larger ones sometimes do not.  However, GOP straw polls in large counties do have recent precedent during Federal election years.  Wake County, the largest GOP county in the state, had one at their 2012 convention.  The MeckGOP also had one at its 2012 countywide precinct meeting.  In fact, google searches show all of the top five GOP counties having some form of straw poll at some form of party event during 2012.

MeckGOP Raises the Political Stakes for HOT Lanes Supporters

For the past few months as the WidenI77.org citizens group in North Mecklenburg questioned the effort to install HOT Lanes on I-77, the Mecklenburg County Republican Party remained noticeably silent on the subject.  To a degree, that silence was understandable considering the push to install these toll lanes is being led by local Republicans in the State Legislature.

This week that changed - culminating in a dramatic scene during Saturday's annual MeckGOP County Convention.

On the morning of the convention a resolution was submitted opposing the current HOT Lanes plan for I-77.  After working with the Resolutions Committee, the proposed language for the resolution was edited down for brevity and content.  However, the overall intent of the resolution remained in place.  This was a resolution to oppose the current HOT plan for I-77.

The resolution was submitted to the convention as one of only three public policy resolutions on the official agenda.  The fact that this resolution "made the cut" is a statement in itself.  There was at least one other resolution rejected by the committee.  Seeing that the Resolution Committee is made up of party insiders, the fact that they allowed this to be one of the officially presented resolutions shows a willingness of at least some in the party hierarchy to support alternatives to the current HOT lanes proposal supported by many Republican elected officials.

The HOT Lanes resolution was held until the end partly due to the expectation that it would be somewhat contentious.  The edited resolution was read from the podium and then the floor was opened for debate.

What happened next will be hard to ignore.

There was no debate.  Nobody spoke against the resolution.  Nobody spoke for it.  It stood on its own.

Then it was time to vote.

By a unanimous voice vote, the MeckGOP County Convention passed the resolution opposing the current plan for HOT Lanes on I-77 without further study.

It took a huge amount of political courage to submit that resolution to the convention, but speaking truth to power always does.  Saturday, that courage was unanimously rewarded.

Now that Republican elected officials have unequivocal proof that the path they have chosen is unsatisfactory to the party faithful, there is only one question left.

Will they listen?


See below for a copy of the resolution received by aShortChronicle.  This was transcribed from a recording made by a member of the audience as it was read from the podium.

For more on I-77 Hot Lanes see...  The Hot Lanes Chronicle

MeckGOP Elects New Board

Saturday morning at the Mecklenburg Republican Party County Convention, a new slate was elected to lead the local party for the next two years.

As was mentioned in this earlier post, at the February County Precinct Meeting there were originally two candidates interested in the top spot of Chairman - one from Pat McCrory's camp, the other from Robert Pittenger's.  Also, on the copy of that post over at PunditHouse.com there were rumblings from activist extraordinaire Adam Love of Campaign for Liberty that there may be a candidate from the "grassroots" who could possibly challenge for the leadership spot.

However, by Saturday that was no longer the case with only Brad Overcash officially throwing his name into the ring.  After Mr Overcash was officially designated as the next Chairman, he made a motion to forego elections for the remaining positions and presented his selected slate for the Board.

In a sign hinting at party unity there was no showdown over who would lead the party through the next election cycles.

Congratulations and good luck to the new Board!

Bonus Observation: As "Chairman of the Convention" Charlotte City Councilman Warren Cooksey put on a great performance as Master of Ceremonies for the day.  His knowledge of the minutiae in the rules of parliamentary procedure was impressive.

MeckGOP Chairman race really a proxy fight?

At last night's annual MeckGOP precinct meeting two candidates for MeckGO Chairman introduced themselves to many of the voters who will select a new top leader at the March county convention.

With Mecklenburg County having over 180k registered Republicans, controlling the local Party mechanism would be a nice bit of leverage to have for any politician, and it seems two of the biggest names in NC politics have thrown proxies into the ring.

Igor Jablokov and Bradley Overcash both made their pitches for the chairmanship of the MeckGOP.  Interestingly, neither gave a lot of information on what they had done for the local party to deserve the top spot.  Instead, both focused on their connections powerful elected officials.

Igor Jablokov has been a member of Governor Pat McCrory's transition team and Bradley Overcash worked for Congressman Robert Pittenger back when he was in the NC State Senate.

The question is will the local party faithful pick one of these two men with strong establishment connections or will someone else who has a longer history working the Party's grassroots step forward.