#NCGA: Jeter ahead in squeaker for NC-92 House seat

In preliminary totals, NC House Rep Charles Jeter leads challenger Tom Davis by a mere 28 votes after election day.   That's 3719 votes for Jeter to 3691 for Davis, or 50.19% to 49.81%

Per Tom Davis Wednesday morning, they are still waiting on provisional and final absentee totals, so things could possibly change one way or the other with a recount.

Taking a look at the precinct level maps from election day shows a good picture of how this race unfolded.

2016 Primary Election
Jeter shown in Red.  Davis shown in Tan.

Davis rolled up big victories in Huntersville precincts in the north end of the district - winning those precincts by double digit percentages.  However, Jeter overcame that by winning the southern end of the district.

Davis was running as an anti-toll candidate which clearly resonated in the northern precincts that will be impacted by the I77 HOT lanes project.  His margin of victory there becomes even more stark when one considers this was Jeter's home turf as a former Huntersville Commissioner.

Interestingly, this is almost the exact opposite of the precinct level results from the first Jeter vs Davis contest back in the 2012 primary. In that race Jeter ran up huge totals in Huntersville and Davis won the southern end of the district.   See below.

2012 Primary Election
Jeter shown in light green.  Davis shown in dark green.

In 2016, Jeter actually saw his raw vote total fall in 3 of 5 Huntersville precincts when compared to 2012.  This happened even while overall turnout across the district was up significantly.  That does not bode well for Jeter's general election hopes if he is ultimately declared the winner of this year's close primary.

The below map shows the precinct outcomes from the 2012 general election.  That's a good comparison because it was also a presidential election year.

2012 General Election
Jeter shown in Red, Bradford shown in blue.

The precincts Jeter won on Tuesday almost match exactly the ones he lost during the 2012 general election.  Combine that with what would appear to be lower popularity in his home precincts, and that's not a good recipe for success in one of the few partisanly competitive districts in the state.

Bonus Observation:  As close as this contest was on Tuesday, it was not the closest legislative primary for the NC House.  That honor went to the Democratic Primary for NC House 103 between Rochelle Rivas and Noah Lieberman.  In that race Rivas leads by just 10 votes, 3235 to 3225.

#NCGA - Big Solar looooves Charles Jeter!

That's just one of the takeaways from NC92 Rep Charles Jeter's latest campaign finance report that finally appeared on the NC BOE website on Monday.

Out of $30,000 in contributions from individuals, at least $18,950 came from individuals clearly associated with green energy.  That included 2 maximum contributions of $5,100 from Charlotte billionaire Jay Faison and his wife. Another $2500 came in from the NC Clean Energy Businees Alliance PAC.

That makes for a whopping total of at least $21,450 from people associated with a single business.  (It's at least that much considering there could be more squirreled away in other donations.)

Jeter's stunning total of solar cash for the second half of the year bested what Sen Jeff Tarte brought in from Big Solar in the first half of 2015.  His was a relatively modest $17,000.

What's the reason that's a big deal (other than the obvious implications of so much money coming from one type of business)?

The issue of solar subsidies has been a huge source of controversy this past year within the Republican House Caucus.

The issue even spilled over locally within the MeckGOP when former (emphasis on former) MeckGOP Chairman Curtis Watkins resigned suddenly after being accused of trying to recruit a primary challenger to House Majority Leader, Mike Hager.  Watkins works in the green energy busines, and Hager has been one of the leading voices in the NCGA opposing subsidizing that business.

Working in concordance with the NCGOP platform, conservatives like Hagar in the NCGA have been successfull in scaling back some of the mandates and subsidies imposed by Raleigh forcing higher usage of energy from sources such as solar.  To do that, they've often had to fight members of their own party.

Jeter currently serves as the Conference Chair for the House Republicans which means he is in charge of raising and managing the Caucus's campaign funds.

Fr conservative voters, it is easy to see how having someone in that position who is raising so much money for his personal campaign account from a lobby the party platform opposes, would/should be considered a problem.

Bonus Observation: In what has to be a rare thing for a state legislator, Jeter sported more than one billionaire donor.  Carolina Panthers owner Jerry Richardson gave him $500.

#NCGA House-92: It is ALL about the HOT lanes.

At least that is what you would think from looking at Democrat challenger Chaz Beasley's website. The only issue mentioned on his campaign site home page is his opposition to I-77 HOT lanes project.

Beasley says he intends to file this Thursday at 12:15 p.m. according to his Facebook page.  He will be the first challenger for incumbent Republican Rep Charles Jeter of Huntersville who currently holds the seat.

Beasley repeatedly says "we" have opposed the HOT lanes project since the beginning. However, it is a bit unclear exactly what Beasley means by "we".

A search of the Exit 28 Ridiculousness Facebook page does not show a single comment by Beasley nor does one find anything else where he is on the record as opposing the project or has worked at all with the groups of activists trying to stop it.  That would include on the sites for the Mecklenburg Young Democrats where Beasley served as the immediate past president - a position that would have allowed him a platform to espouse his supposed opposition.

Regardless, his emphasis on the project shows the importance of it as a campaign issue.

NC-92 is one of the few competitive districts between the parties in the entire state, so any number of issues could swing the election to one party or another.  If voters believe that Jeter is not doing absolutely everything possible to stop the project, then it could cause enough voters to swing to Beasley simply because he says he opposes it.

Proof of Beasley's actual opposition may not be required.