#NCGA House 95 - Following the money for the next round of anti-toll driven elections

With filing for the 2016 elections opening on Tuesday, the race for NC House 95 is shaping up to be ground zero for the next round of anti-toll activist fury.  The current issue of Cornelius Today alludes to such, referring to an email from Greg Wallace of the I77 Business Plan with the subject "Target Acquired".  The "target" is apparenly NC-95 Rep John Fraley.

At the end of October former long-time State Rep Robert Brawley of Mooresville announced his intent to setup a rematch from the last round of legislative elections.  Fraley edged out Brawley in the primary last cycle by just a little more than 100 votes.

(Brawley recently said he was also looking at the Governor's race, but we think a better choice would be this rematch.)

Both Brawley and Fraley are Republicans, and this is a heavily Republican district, so the real election will occur in the March primary.  With that in mind, we took a look at the campaign filings for the 2013 primary to see if there was any indication of what we could expect.

What we saw in Fraley's filings was not pretty!!!

When Fraley filed in late 2013 to challenge Brawley, there was widespread speculation among anti-toll activists that he was put up to it by pro-toll forces in the Raleigh establishment.  Fraley recently came fully out of the pro-toll closet with his comments in this article  from the Mooresville Tribune.  However, a close look at Fraley's finance reports provides validation of those concerns from back in 2013.

Fraley kicked off his 2014 campaign fundraising by "loaning" his campaign a whopping $75,000.  The mega-loan to a campaign by well heeled candidates has become all too common in local elections.  As we've written before, it is intended to shock and awe potential opponents (and those who might donate to them) into dropping out or not running at all.  The massive "loan" also begs the question "what will Fraley do to pay himself back?"

During the 2014 primary, Fraley spent over $11,000 on "polling".  In fact, his first campaign expense was a $6,000 expense for polling work prior to his actually filing for office.  For a legislative race in a district that a covers only one county, that kind of spending sure seems indicative of someone who doesn't know what his neighbors want and is just holding his finger in the air to see which way the wind is blowing.

Fraley also had other eyebrow raising expenditures.

There are numerous expenses to several different individuals listed under the category of "Field Representative".  Another way to read that would be "Paid Campaign Worker".  Notably, few to none of these people appear to be from the district.  Again, when you have to pay people to work for you rather than having enough volunteers to get the job done, what does that say about a candidate's connection to the local area?

However, the most disturbing expenditures in Fraley's primary campaign reports are he massive expenditures to The Stewart Group.  In this short cycle Fraley's campaign sent $64,062.20 to this Raleigh political consulting outfit.  The Stewart Group is highly connected to the Raleigh Republican Establishment.  Read up on the outfit's founder Dee Stewart in these stories from the DailyHaymaker.com here, here, and here.  (Make sure to read the comments.)

Any candidate who hires these guys to work for them should be highly suspect.  Having them on a campaign's payroll should induce any voter to run the other way, and run fast.

All of that is just some of the ways Fraley chose to spend his campaign cash.  Where Fraley got his campaign cash beyond that mega loan from himself is also interesting.

The first thing that jumps off the page from his campaign's original filing covering the period until the end of 2013 is the large amount of out of state cash Fraley raked in.  Numerous donations rolled in from New York to Florida, from Massachusetts to Tennessee - as well as several other states.  The largest individual contribution was a $4,000 check from someone in Florida.

It is one thing for residents in Cornelius, Davidson, and Mooresville to take an interest in elections in a fellow Lake Norman town like, oh let's say Huntersville.  One has to wonder though why so many people from across the country would spend money to get a state legislator elected in another state.

But maybe the most interesting contribution of all was a $2,000 donation that came with an address in Cornelius.  It was the largest local campaign contribution in the 2013 year-end filing.  The address listed also happens to be the same address listed on Cornelius Mayor Chuck Travis's 2009 campaign organization form.  That would be the same Mayor Travis named last year to the state Turnpike Authority by Thom Tillis.  That's the body in charge of the state's toll roads.  It would also be the same Mayor Travis who recently returned from Texas to tell us how great Cintra's toll roads are working in the Lone Star State.

However, the name on this donation is not that of the Cornelius Mayor, but it does match that of his wife.

One can learn a lot about a candidate by looking at where they get their money and how they spend it.  Rep John Fraley's campaign reports should tell anti-toll voters all they need to know.

Feds taking comments on CRTPO...give 'em an ear full.

In the aftermath last week's "I77 Summit", the region's primary transportation planning body, the CRTPO, has become the center of attention when it comes to the I77 HOT lanes project.

The Governor is hiding behind the group, saying the only way he'll consider stopping the project is if the CRTPO tells him to do it.  The NCDOT is saying any newly constituted CRTPO body would not be able to reasonably decide the issue quickly because the body could have several new faces after this month's elections.  If any actionable item did come out of the "Summit", it was Rep Charles Jeter's stated intention to file a bill to reduce Charlotte's influence in the CRTPO when the Legislature reconvenes for its short session next year.  The Charlotte Observer has even recognized that the City's decision to skip the summit looks bad and jeopardizes the legitimacy its current setup as a decision making body.

Charlotte has long used its weighted voting power to effectively make decisions in all but unilateral fashion for the entire region.  As we said in this story here back in 2013, Charlotte often acts like the playground bully effectively saying "we'll take our ball and go home if we don't get our way".

Frankly, there has been little that individuals can do about that setup.  That is, up until now.

WidenI77.org is encouraging the public to send the below email (or any respectful email of your choosing) to the Federal Department of Transportation before December 15.  The quadrennial review period for the CRTPO is currently underway at the Federal level and the DOT is taking comments.

Send your email to Loretta.Barren@dot.gov and let the Feds know how the current setup is effectively allowing Charlotte to milk the surrounding region while not allowing the surrounding region an effective mechanism to stop it - or at least to be treated fairly.

Sample email below...

Subject: CRTPO Public Involvement Process

Dear Ms. Barren-
The CRTPO is in need of reform. During the past several years they have minimized or ignored public input. With a very lop-sided voting structure, one city benefits greatly while the needs of the other towns and the region are ignored.
For example:

• During the July 2015 public comment period, CRTPO received over 700 individual comments opposing the P3.0 TIP.  CRTPO approved the TIP citing, among other reasons, the fact that the TIP had to be approved quickly or they risked losing federal allocation in October.  Therefore, the public comment period was moot.

• While developing the P4.0 project list, CRTPO received over 250 public comments urging adoption.  At their September 16, 2015 meeting, CRTPO took the extremely unusual step of postponing approval. In direct opposition to public comments, CRTPO subsequently removed a project from the list and approved the list at their next meeting.

• On May 23, 2013 CRTPO (then MUMPO) Chairwoman Sarah MacAulay unilaterallydenied all citizens the opportunity to comment during the public comment period. Eighteen had signed up to speak on the controversial I-77 private toll project.

• At their December 12, 2013 CRTPO meeting, TCC staff recommended against including a public comment period for TCC meetings.  CRTPO accepted this recommendation. A public comment period for TCC meetings does not exist.

• The public comment period policy for MUMPO meetings used to be three minutes per person and ten minutes per group. CRTPO revised this to limit the public comment period to twenty minutes total, regardless of the number of speakers or groups.
• Groups wishing to make a formal presentation must notify CRTPO ten days in advance.

• Mr. Ned Curran serves as an alternate delegate for NCDOT Divisions 10 & 12. Curran is also Chairman of the NCDOT Board and CEO of Bissel, a major land developer and property manager in South Charlotte. On August 19, 2015, Curran voted for the P3.0 TIP as the Division 12 delegate. I believe it is a conflict of interest for a major land developer to decide road and transportation improvement projects.

• Ms. Sarah McAulay serves as Chair of CRTPO. On August 19, 2015, McAulay introduced a motion to approve the P3.0 TIP which includes seven Huntersville projects. McAulay owns or co-owns three properties with direct frontage to at least one or more of the projects and six properties in close proximity to one or more projects.  I believe it is aconflict of interest for a CRTPO member to decide road improvement projects from which they may directly benefit.

These comprise serious flaws in the CRTPO’s planning process, have seriously eroded public trust and fail to serve the public interest. Per 23 U.S.C. (i)(5) and 49 U.S.C. 1607 I am therefore requesting you reject CRTPO’s certification until substantial reforms are completed.

Sincerely,

Name

Town

Davidson growth set to explode...no catalyst needed.

As staff and elected officials in the Town of Davidson continue to ponder the proposed Downtown Catalyst Project, there is a looming wave of explosive growth just on the horizon.  This is growth that will happen whether or not the town's own project "catalyzes" anything.  Frankly, knowing this is going to happen it is hard to believe the Town itself is looking to promote even more growth through its own efforts.  Maybe the town should change the Catalyst's name to something like Accelerant.

The first project if it materializes could have the most direct impact on the supposed need for something like the Catalyst project in the town center.  In the past we've told you about potential development at the old Davidson Clinic site on South Main.  That previous development plan fell through this past summer, but that property - as well as the adjacent two parcels - are now showing as "active contingent" on real-estate sites - meaning a sale and new development could be imminent.

At almost six acres this site is nearly double the size of the Town-owned land proposed for the Catalyst Project. Whatever this site on South Main eventually becomes, it will certainly be big (and controversial), but it will also achieve the town's goals of 'connecting' South Main in ways the Catalyst never would by creating a center of gravity at that end of Main Street.  Also, there will almost certainly be a significant retail/commercial component of any development that size which meets another stated town goal for the Catalyst.

As of last week, a proposed development plan had not been submitted according to Planning Director, Jason Burdett.  There is also nothing on the town website as of this writing.  However, this is definitely something to keep a close eye on.  Things appear to be in the works and could move fast.

The second major development is closer to coming to fruition.  That regards what is going on out at Westmoreland Farm.  We originally told you about surveying activity at the site almost three months ago.

A records request to the town turned up some additional information.

The below picture called a "bubble diagram" was put together by staff at Commissioner Brian Jenest's firm during the discussions leading up to passage of the planning ordinance rewrite earlier this year.  The purpose of the diagram was to provide a conceptual picture of what could be built under the new ordinance.  To be very clear it is not a proposal.  However, it does give a sense of the scale of any development that could be on the way.

 

A week after the Town Board passed the planning ordinance rewrite back in April, a planner from ColeJenest & Stone contacted Town staff saying "we are working towards a schematic site plan for the Westmoreland property along Davidson-Concord Road and have a few questions/requests".

That combined with the work seen recently and the counts on that bubble diagram would indicate another development with potentially hundreds of units is on the way.

While again, like the South Main project no site plan has been submitted, it is clear something is in the works.

Finally, this coming Monday, November 30th, the Davidson Planning Board will hear a request from the developers of Summerswalk regarding removal of the planned neighborhood retail at the front of the neighborhood along 73 to be replaced with more townhomes.

The proposal, also submitted by ColeJenest & Stone, appears to have the approval of the Town Planning Department.  The staff recommendation says "this master plan amendment is appropriate and in line with the town’s current development policies".

One of the stated reasons for the Catalyst Project is to increase the commercial tax base for the town.  Removing a planned commercial area - even if it may not be built out for some time would seem to run counter to that goal.

If the recent pushback from town residents was not enough to convince Town Hall that the Catalyst Project is not needed or should be drastically scaled down, maybe this looming wave of growth will do it.

Thanks for a great 6-months!

With this being Thanksgiving week, I wanted to take a moment to thank the readers of aShortChronicle for a great last six month's.

In the nearly 4-year run for this blog, the last six months have been special.  To the site's long-time regular readers, thanks for your support over the years, and to the newer readers thanks for making the site's growth happen.  A special thanks goes to the members of the E28R Facebook page.  The large number of shares, likes, and comments has added significantly to the overall reader base.

Here are a few stats that show what has happened recently.  In the past 6-month period...

• the average monthly page views is up more than 500% over the previous six month period.
• 9 of the all time top 10 posts for the site have occurred since June 1st.
• the site has had several days with over
  1000 page views - something that had never happened even a single time before.

For a site that started out with a target audience of local elected officials, town staffers, and a relatively small number of local politics news junkies, this kind of growth is validation the stories covered here interest a wider audience.

Certainly, there has been no shortage of stories to cover this past half year.  That can be seen as a good thing or a bad thing, I suppose.  Regardless, our local political scene has provided lots and lots of material.

I am thankful to be able to cover it, and thankful readers seem to think it is worthwhile.

Happy Thanksgiving!

The Charlotte Streetcar's Costly (and Bogus) Success

Monday's Politico had a blurb about the Charlotte Strretcar that reiterated the old canard that it was actually a good idea.

From Politico...

In July of 2013 — after Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx had left his mayoral seat in Charlotte to be a Cabinet official for the Obama administration — the secretary returned to his home town to help christen a streetcar he’d fought hard to get going, arguing that the investment wasn’t “a project to nowhere.” Writing this month for POLITICO Magazine’s “What Works” series, Charlotte Magazine Executive Editor Michael Graff explains that no step before or since the streetcar’s approval “has been without controversy. Supporters, mostly Democrats, lovingly call it a 'streetcar,’ and they’ll tell you it’s a valuable instrument that now transports 47,000 riders a month — about double expectations. Opponents, mostly Republicans, condescendingly call it a ‘trolley,’ and they’ll tell you that it cost $37 million just for this phase with $100 million more to come for extensions in the next decade.”

The problem with that?

Charlotte already had a mass transit option which arguably was providing the bulk of this service before the streetcar was built.  It is called the Gold Rush Red Line.

Prior to the streetcar opening, the Gold Rush Red Line ran the full distance from Presbyterian Hospital to Johnson C Smith university.  According to this late 2012 document from Charlotte Center City Partners, it carried 65,000 riders per month.

When the streetcar opened in 2015, the Gold Rush cut its route roughly in half because the east end of the route was now serviced by the streetcar.  A few months later, the streetcar was trumpeted as a huge success carrying 47,000 passengers per month.

The problem is that since the new streetcar covered roughly 1/2 the same territory as the old full Gold Rush line, it stands to reason that a big chunk of the streetcar riders were actually former Gold Rush riders.

Using that same ratio of 1/2 and accounting for some growth since 2012, roughly 32k-35k of the streetcar's ridership was likely just canibalized from the old Gold Rush line.  That means the streetcar is really just prividing just 12k - 15k "new" rides per month.

When you factor in that people go both to and from a place that translates into just 6k - 7.5k new round trips per month.  Then if you figure most people using this for work ride daily that is roughly 25 trips per month - translating to just 240-300 new individuals riding the streetcar regularly per month who weren't already using the old Gold Rush.  (The number could be lower because some people may make more than on trip per day.)

The cost of the current streetcar was $37m.  That translates into $123k - $154k per new person using the streetcar who was not already using the Gold Rush.

The real kick in the teeth to all this is that the folks in the Charlotte government center think this is great, and they want to spend $150m more to extend the streetcar - all while forcing LKN residents to  pay for a toll road and massive infrastructure improvements that benefit the city as much or more than anyone else.

Charlotte is willing to fight for money to benefit just a few hundred while being willing to condemn 10s of thousands to the misery of tolls for 50 years on I77 through its control of the CRTPO.

That is not right and it needs to change.

I77 continues to stir the pot for local politicos

In the ongoing fallout of this month's election, Local politicos have continued to spin, react, position, and use the I77 HOT lanes issue to varying degrees of effectiveness.

In a press release last Monday where his pending toll road education trip to Texas along with Davidson Mayor John Woods was revealed, Cornelius Mayor Chuck Travis chose to take the "whistling past the graveyard" approach.  Considering what happened to his fellow pro-toller, Mayor Jill Swain in Huntersville, it seemed a bit tone deaf for Travis to say...

"First and foremost, I want to thank the residents of Cornelius for the vote of confidence to serve as the Mayor of our wonderful Town. On election day, even though I was unopposed, I received the highest number of votes of any candidate running for office in our Town. I appreciate the trust that you have placed in me to lead our Town for the next two years. I take the role of Mayor seriously and respect the responsibility to hold this office."

While the bubble was burst regarding the vote totals in the unopposed Davidson and Cornelius Mayoral races in this piece last week.  Cornelius Commissioner Dave Gilroy's said it more directly in his most recent newsletter in Sunday.

"Note to Davidson’s Mayor John Woods and Cornelius’s Mayor Chuck Travis who are both lovely gentlemen, but have been hand-in-hand for years with Swaine in supporting I-77 Tolls (which the Lake Norman Chamber of Commerce recently stated would cause “irreparable damage to our region”). With no doubt whatsoever, both Woods and Travis would have similarly gone down in flames had they faced any viable opposition."

Then there is State Rep Charles Jeter.  Though, in Jeter's case, rather than his own statements, he was on the receiving end of multiple ads on the subject of the HOT lanes - ads that came from two completely different directions.

The first ad appearing in local papers said Jeter is the one with the power to stop the tolls...

The second appeared on a billboard along 77 saying Jeter is the one to blame for putting them in place...

In the aftermath of Monday's "summit" where the State once again kicked the can back to CRTPO and with candidate filing for the NCGA set to open December-1, we can likely expect the hard hitting comments on tolls to keep coming.

The topic was an effective one in our recent municipal elections and will likely be in the forefront for many elections to come.

Cornelius and Davidson had elections, too!

With all of the attention given to the election results in Huntersville, it might be tempting to forget that all of the local municipalities had elections two weeks ago.  Not much has been said about the elections in Cornelius and Davidson, but voters there also trekked to the polls earlier this month.

Last week, some more detailed numbers were available from the Mecklenburg Board of Elections that  are worth a look.

As one might expect Huntersville had the largest number of voters heading to the polls.  With competitive races and by far the largest population, that is not surprising.  However, when it comes to turnout rate, that top “honor” goes to Davidson.

14.61% of Davidsonians headed to the polls, followed by 13.93% of Huntersville’s registered voters, with only 13.25% of Cornelius’s voters making it out.  While saying the “honor” goes to Davidson for the highest turnout is true, that needs to be said with some serious air quotes around it.  It is a pretty sad state of affairs when all three towns had less than 15% turnout.

A closer looks at the numbers in the Mayoral races also revealed some interesting tidbits.

By now most people are aware if how lopsided the contested race in Huntersville turned out to be.  But what may surprise people are a couple of things that occurred in the uncontested races in Cornelius and Davidson.

At first glance both contests had margins of victory for the incumbents reminiscent of what you might see in Castro’s Cuba or the Kim Dynasty in North Korea.  Chuck Travis won in Cornelius with 93.9% and John Woods won in Davidson with 87.9%.

Write in candidates got a cumulative 6.1% and 12.1% respectively in the two towns which actually seems a bit high – particularly for Davidson.  However, after looking at the turnout data provided by the Board of Elections, it is clear there was a significant protest vote beyond even just the write-ins.

in North Carolina only votes where a candidate is actually selected actually end up being  counted – meaning if a ballot is left blank for a given race, that ballot is not counted in the total winning percentage.  These ballots are considered “spoiled” for this given race where they are left blank.  Not counting these ballots, makes the actual winning percentage look artificially high versus the overall total of voters who went to the polls.

So, what were the actual winning percentages when these “spoiled” ballots are included?

In Cornelius, Mayor Travis got 74.20% of actual ballots cast.  In Davidson, Mayor Woods got a little less, coming in at 72.66%.  In fact in PCT 127 on Davidson’s east side, Woods actually slipped below 70% with only 69.6% pulling the lever for him.

So, what does it mean when more that 25% of voters won’t cast a vote for the only name available on the ballot?

An inquiry with the UNC School of Government did not turn up any academic research on the subject of “protest votes”, but a quick comparison to Huntersville sheds some light on it.  In Huntersville where people had two choices and both candidates were reasonable options, the overall protest vote was just 0.4%.

It would seem that Davidson and Cornelius just need more candidates and more options. If they had them, those candidates would likely be starting from a pretty solid base to make a run at the top spots in these two towns.  In fact, if  those options had existed, we very well may be taking about replacing all three Mayors in North Mecklenburg rather than just one.

Clearly, the main issue driving the electoral shellacking in Huntersville was the I77 HOT lanes.  It stands to reason, that same issue was at work creating the high level of “protest” voting in Davidson and Cornelius where both mayors had similar stances as Huntersville Mayor Jill Swain.

This post originally appeared in this week's Herald Weekly at huntersvilleherald.com.