The Charlotte Streetcar's Costly (and Bogus) Success

Monday's Politico had a blurb about the Charlotte Strretcar that reiterated the old canard that it was actually a good idea.

From Politico...

In July of 2013 — after Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx had left his mayoral seat in Charlotte to be a Cabinet official for the Obama administration — the secretary returned to his home town to help christen a streetcar he’d fought hard to get going, arguing that the investment wasn’t “a project to nowhere.” Writing this month for POLITICO Magazine’s “What Works” series, Charlotte Magazine Executive Editor Michael Graff explains that no step before or since the streetcar’s approval “has been without controversy. Supporters, mostly Democrats, lovingly call it a 'streetcar,’ and they’ll tell you it’s a valuable instrument that now transports 47,000 riders a month — about double expectations. Opponents, mostly Republicans, condescendingly call it a ‘trolley,’ and they’ll tell you that it cost $37 million just for this phase with $100 million more to come for extensions in the next decade.”

The problem with that?

Charlotte already had a mass transit option which arguably was providing the bulk of this service before the streetcar was built.  It is called the Gold Rush Red Line.

Prior to the streetcar opening, the Gold Rush Red Line ran the full distance from Presbyterian Hospital to Johnson C Smith university.  According to this late 2012 document from Charlotte Center City Partners, it carried 65,000 riders per month.

When the streetcar opened in 2015, the Gold Rush cut its route roughly in half because the east end of the route was now serviced by the streetcar.  A few months later, the streetcar was trumpeted as a huge success carrying 47,000 passengers per month.

The problem is that since the new streetcar covered roughly 1/2 the same territory as the old full Gold Rush line, it stands to reason that a big chunk of the streetcar riders were actually former Gold Rush riders.

Using that same ratio of 1/2 and accounting for some growth since 2012, roughly 32k-35k of the streetcar's ridership was likely just canibalized from the old Gold Rush line.  That means the streetcar is really just prividing just 12k - 15k "new" rides per month.

When you factor in that people go both to and from a place that translates into just 6k - 7.5k new round trips per month.  Then if you figure most people using this for work ride daily that is roughly 25 trips per month - translating to just 240-300 new individuals riding the streetcar regularly per month who weren't already using the old Gold Rush.  (The number could be lower because some people may make more than on trip per day.)

The cost of the current streetcar was $37m.  That translates into $123k - $154k per new person using the streetcar who was not already using the Gold Rush.

The real kick in the teeth to all this is that the folks in the Charlotte government center think this is great, and they want to spend $150m more to extend the streetcar - all while forcing LKN residents to  pay for a toll road and massive infrastructure improvements that benefit the city as much or more than anyone else.

Charlotte is willing to fight for money to benefit just a few hundred while being willing to condemn 10s of thousands to the misery of tolls for 50 years on I77 through its control of the CRTPO.

That is not right and it needs to change.

Charlotte Streetcar...a real "threat" from Governor Pat or just kabuki theater?

From Thursday's Charlotte Observer...

Gov. McCrory warns streetcar could risk light rail money

and Friday at WCNC...

Council Members to Gov. McCrory: Wait, was that a threat?

Call me a cynic, but people need to remember that this is politics.  What you see is not always what is really going on.  To think that Governor Pat McCrory is going to let anything derail the Blue Line Extension is fantasy.

Governor Pat is and always has been a mass transit supporter in all its forms and at all costs.  Between his two runs for the Governor's mansion he spent his time lobbying for higher transit taxes elsewhere around the country.  See here for an example as recently as 2011 from our neighbors to the south in Atlanta.

As was pointed out in the above CO article, Governor Pat has in the past supported going outside the Mecklenburg County transit tax in support of the Red Line.  Also true is the fact that backing out now on the Blue Line Extension is highly unlikely with the Full Funding Grant Agreement in place.  Finally, the newly preferred way to build infrastructure for NC Republican appears to be increased use of local funds rather than more State funds.

The Red Line plan, the Charlotte Streetcar plan, and the I77 HOT lanes plan are ALL following this model.

Here's how this very likely could play out.  Governor Pat's "threat" causes the Charlotte City Council which is dominated by Democrats to reflexively vote to put Streetcar funding in a future CIP simply because a Republican "threatened" them.  That gets the Streetcar moving again - accomplishing the real goal of the so called "threat".  Governor Pat feigns outrage, but nothing happens to the BLE.  

The other projects go forward as well following the additional local funding model.  Much of the time this will be done without even asking the voters.  My guess is that at some point they will actually use the Charlotte Streetcar as the example of how local funding works to support these other efforts.

There is one way to know if the above is possibly not the case.  As the NCDOT reorganizes under the new Transportation Secretary (Tony Tata), if Paul Morris keeps his job as DepSec for Transit that can be taken as a sign it's going to be full speed ahead and business as usual.  If he is replaced, then maybe there is a course correction in the works when it comes to building trains.

Until we know what happens at NCDOT, this is all just kabuki theater.

Streetcar Supporters Run Away, Live to Fight Another Day

So what happened at the CharMeck Government Center on Monday night?

In the blink of an eye, Charlotte City Council went from a veto threat against a compromise budget that would still have spent over $600 million in additional capital projects to one that included zero dollars.  Yes, zero.  No tax increase this year and no new Capital Improvement Plan or CIP. 

The vote occurred along faction lines, not party lines, with the breakaway Democrats (Barnes, Cannon, Fallon, and Pickering) voting for the smaller plan and 2.44c tax increase that did not include the Streetcar.  Republicans Dulin and Cooksey switched votes to side with the Mayor's new zero tax increase budget, along with all of the Streetcar supporters.

Ironically, in the end only the two Republicans on the Council got what they wanted.  That's an amazing feat when outnumbered 9-2!

However, why did this happen the way it did? 

Next Week Is BIG...

Next week is big for Davidson. 

Here's what is on the docket for the Davidson area...

Davidson Budget Vote 6/26...the Board pushed the budget vote until this specially scheduled "work session" because of information discovered late on the solid waste fee revenues.  These are coming in lower than expected and Staff originally thought this was due to a billing error on the part of the County.  This appears to be the case and communications to those who were not billed will be going out soon.  How this impacts the budget decision is unclear at this point, but don't be surprised to see an adjustment to the schedule of fees as part of the agenda to be posted on Friday.

Red Line Task Force Meeting 6/27...as reported here earlier, a meeting has been held with Norfolk Southern on their concerns with the Red Line plan.  The outcome of that meeting will directly impact the timeline of the project.

CHS Mental Health Facility Meeting at River Run 6/28...This meeting will be interesting.  River Run is hosting the meeting with their POA President (and newly minted Livability Board member) Mickey Pettus supporting the Town position on the project while other RR residents are leading the opposition to it.  If the meeting channels the same vibe as the recent Commissioner Chat at Hopewell Baptist near RR, there will be fireworks.  Longtime watchers of local board meetings remember that "chat" as one of the most contentious Town meetings in recent memory.

Bonus Opportunity for Regional Drama...

Charlotte Budget Vote on 6/25...The Streetcar project has become a major sticking point and Mayor Foxx has threatened a veto the budget if it is not included.  How will the compromise NC State Budget which restored LYNX Blue Line Extension funding impact the Democrats who bravely voted down the City budget last week?  Will they hold firm on dumping the Streetcar or will they get weak knees now that the Republican-led Legislature has decided to give $250m for a train of their own.

Legislators restore light rail funding in NC budget -Charlotte Observer


Update: The CHS meeting has been postponed per DavidsonNews.net.

Local Rail Transit in the Crosshairs

Seemingly out of nowhere, every high-dollar rail transit project on the CATS project list has suddenly come under serious fire. 

The Red Line missteps have been well documented here in this blog and elsewhere, but in the last few days the Charlotte Streetcar and even the Blue Line Extension are no longer the sure things once predicted.

This week's Charlotte City Council defeat of the City Manager's budget proposal was at least partially driven by the high cost of the Streetcar funding included in the budget's capital plan - $119 million in bonds that would be paid for by a large property tax increase.  After last November's elections and the near sweep of City Council by the Democrats, passage of the budget and the Streetcar funding seemed a sure thing.  Tuesday's 5-6 vote with 4 Dems voting with the Council's 2 Republicans came as a total shock - particularly to Mayor Foxx who has long been a Streetcar proponent.  When this budget ordinance comes back around later this month, don't be surprised is the Streetcar is the major spending item that is not on the list.  See this Observer article for more background.

Even more surprising is the risk posed to the Blue Line Extension to UNCC in northeast Charlotte by the State Legislature.  The State Senate has passed a budget amendment that removes funding for Charlotte rail projects which would effectively kill the BLE.  While this is an outside possibility, polling shows that it would be supported statewide if not by the entire local legislative delegation - both Republicans and Democrats.  Mecklenburg Republican, Ric Killian, has proposed a gas tax cap that will likely be voted on this session.  If it passes, recent polling by Civitas shows that funding for mass transit is the top target of taxpayers if gas tax revenue is reduced.  See question #9 on these recent polling results.  59% of respondents say cut mass transit first if the gas tax cap brings in less revenue.  The next closest is "New Road Construction" at 27%.  If the gas tax cap passes, this will give them political cover to pull BLE funding.

Oh what a difference six months makes.