Wednesday, March 16, 2016

#NCGA: Jeter ahead in squeaker for NC-92 House seat

In preliminary totals, NC House Rep Charles Jeter leads challenger Tom Davis by a mere 28 votes after election day.   That's 3719 votes for Jeter to 3691 for Davis, or 50.19% to 49.81%

Per Tom Davis Wednesday morning, they are still waiting on provisional and final absentee totals, so things could possibly change one way or the other with a recount.

Taking a look at the precinct level maps from election day shows a good picture of how this race unfolded.

2016 Primary Election
Jeter shown in Red.  Davis shown in Tan.

Davis rolled up big victories in Huntersville precincts in the north end of the district - winning those precincts by double digit percentages.  However, Jeter overcame that by winning the southern end of the district.

Davis was running as an anti-toll candidate which clearly resonated in the northern precincts that will be impacted by the I77 HOT lanes project.  His margin of victory there becomes even more stark when one considers this was Jeter's home turf as a former Huntersville Commissioner.

Interestingly, this is almost the exact opposite of the precinct level results from the first Jeter vs Davis contest back in the 2012 primary. In that race Jeter ran up huge totals in Huntersville and Davis won the southern end of the district.   See below.

2012 Primary Election
Jeter shown in light green.  Davis shown in dark green.

In 2016, Jeter actually saw his raw vote total fall in 3 of 5 Huntersville precincts when compared to 2012.  This happened even while overall turnout across the district was up significantly.  That does not bode well for Jeter's general election hopes if he is ultimately declared the winner of this year's close primary.

The below map shows the precinct outcomes from the 2012 general election.  That's a good comparison because it was also a presidential election year.

2012 General Election
Jeter shown in Red, Bradford shown in blue.
The precincts Jeter won on Tuesday almost match exactly the ones he lost during the 2012 general election.  Combine that with what would appear to be lower popularity in his home precincts, and that's not a good recipe for success in one of the few partisanly competitive districts in the state.

Bonus Observation:  As close as this contest was on Tuesday, it was not the closest legislative primary for the NC House.  That honor went to the Democratic Primary for NC House 103 between Rochelle Rivas and Noah Lieberman.  In that race Rivas leads by just 10 votes, 3235 to 3225.

No comments:

Post a Comment