Republicans will say it was the media. They will say it was Hurricane Sandy. They will say Romney was too liberal or that he was too conservative. Some will blame the Establishment. Some will blame the Tea Party. All of that is true, and none of that is true.
Few will accept that the world changed in Election 2012, that the political ground shifted in a way that requires a fundamental reevaluation of the overall approach for conservatives - a transformation. However if we don't accept that, then we better get used to more nights like this past election night.
Does that sound too radical? Does that sound like panic? If so, then look at the Senate races that were lost and come to a different conclusion. Akin and Mourdock (Tea Party), Allen and Thompson (Establishment), Brown (the ultimate moderate), Mandel (a conservative statewide elected official). All could have won in their respective Senate races. All lost. They only had one thing in common, the R behind their name.
The Republican brand has a problem. That problem is deep, and it is complex.
But what about our very own state of North Carolina you may be asking? That proves that Republicans can win and win big. Doesn't it?
Here's the irony of that. As much as Establishment Republicans may want to think otherwise, the party won in North Carolina this year primarily because of the Tea Party tsunami two years ago. That and the fact that Pat McCrory was running a 4-year campaign flush with cash against one of the most unpopular governors in the country. The Legislative and Congressional victories were primarily a result of last year's redistricting. Democrats actually received many more total votes in the combined Congressional races than Republicans. They won three seats in overwhelming landslides skewing the results for several of the others. However, in other statewide races the Democrats still locked down most of the Council of State with the only other partisan statewide race, Lieutenant Governor, still locked in a recount. It's hard to say Republicans won a landslide popularity contest in the state when redistricting is taken out of the equation.
Eight short years from now, we redistrict again.
The question is will Republicans recognize what needs to be done prior to that.
Showing posts with label Republican Party. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Republican Party. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
Thursday, November 8, 2012
What doomed Republicans on election night? Demographics and Mechanics
"Something is off. These numbers can't be right!"
Those must have been words bouncing around the heads of Karl Rove and Michael Barone on election night. Just day's before the election they predicted a solid Romney victory based on the "numbers". Those words or something like them were definitely being spoken by the Romney campaign as they watched the night unfold. "Shellshocked" was the word reported by CBSNews.com.
Others in the prediction game got it right. Nate Silver of the NYTimes 538 blog and Josh Putnam of our very own Davidson College had been predicting the eventual outcome correctly for months.
They were all looking at the same data, but they had come to distinctly different answers as to what it meant. How did that happen? How can very smart people on both sides come to such different conclusions? The answer is in their different assumptions about the "fundamentals" at work in this election.
Republicans believed the fundamentals at work were the traditional ones. High unemployment, a sluggish economy, and massive deficits were the primary issues. Romney-Ryan was the dream team to address them. Obama's newness had worn off. He was no longer the rockstar of 2008. Romney had the greater momentum. It showed in the his large crowds while Obama sometimes struggled to fill smaller venues. Republicans also had a better machine this time around after being caught by surprise in 2008 by the Obama Campaign's high-tech approach. They had evened the playing field enough.
Those were reasonable assumptions. Were being the operative word - as in past tense.
Democrats believed the primary fundamental at work was demographics. Specifically, the changing demographics of the United States.
The Democrats were right.
Just as importantly, they built an even better machine to exploit that assumption.
Demographics and Mechanics made for a lethal combination.
It's a combination that Republicans must address, and the clock is ticking. The only question is will we run out of time.
UPDATE: From last week Breitbart.com, no better explanation of why Republican's lost the Mechanics of this race. As an Information Technology professional for almost 20 years, I can say with confidence that "haribrained scheme" is a polite description of what they were trying to do. (More on mechanics in a later post.)
Exclusive - Inside Orca: How the Romney Campaign Suppressed Its Own Vote
Those must have been words bouncing around the heads of Karl Rove and Michael Barone on election night. Just day's before the election they predicted a solid Romney victory based on the "numbers". Those words or something like them were definitely being spoken by the Romney campaign as they watched the night unfold. "Shellshocked" was the word reported by CBSNews.com.
Others in the prediction game got it right. Nate Silver of the NYTimes 538 blog and Josh Putnam of our very own Davidson College had been predicting the eventual outcome correctly for months.
They were all looking at the same data, but they had come to distinctly different answers as to what it meant. How did that happen? How can very smart people on both sides come to such different conclusions? The answer is in their different assumptions about the "fundamentals" at work in this election.
Republicans believed the fundamentals at work were the traditional ones. High unemployment, a sluggish economy, and massive deficits were the primary issues. Romney-Ryan was the dream team to address them. Obama's newness had worn off. He was no longer the rockstar of 2008. Romney had the greater momentum. It showed in the his large crowds while Obama sometimes struggled to fill smaller venues. Republicans also had a better machine this time around after being caught by surprise in 2008 by the Obama Campaign's high-tech approach. They had evened the playing field enough.
Those were reasonable assumptions. Were being the operative word - as in past tense.
Democrats believed the primary fundamental at work was demographics. Specifically, the changing demographics of the United States.
The Democrats were right.
Just as importantly, they built an even better machine to exploit that assumption.
Demographics and Mechanics made for a lethal combination.
It's a combination that Republicans must address, and the clock is ticking. The only question is will we run out of time.
UPDATE: From last week Breitbart.com, no better explanation of why Republican's lost the Mechanics of this race. As an Information Technology professional for almost 20 years, I can say with confidence that "haribrained scheme" is a polite description of what they were trying to do. (More on mechanics in a later post.)
Exclusive - Inside Orca: How the Romney Campaign Suppressed Its Own Vote
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