Single-issue debates and referendums can often make for unexpected (and unintended) political alliances which turn an expected result into a surprise. The May 8th vote on Amendment One to define marriage into the North Carolina Constitution is shaping up to be just such an occassion.
If history is any guide, one would assume this amendment passes easily in the only remaining Southern state to not have such a provision in its state constitution. If it fails, that will be due to those assumptions being wrong.