NC Legislative districts being redrawn now will need to be redrawn again in 202w

The other shoe has finally dropped on the possibility of snap elections for the NC Legislature in 2017.  With the Court decision handed down on Monday saying there wasn't time to redraw maps prior to this November, the map makers at the NCGA now have 4-6 weeks to redraw maps for 19 NC House districts and 9 in the NC Senate for elections in 2018.

These are the districts were impacted by the earlier court decisions and must now be redrawn:

House districts: 5,  7,  12,  21,  24,  29,  31,  32,  33,  38,  42,  43,  48,  57,  58, 60,  99,  102,  107
Senate districts: 4,  5,  14,  20,  21,  28,  32,  38,  40

While voters in North Mecklenburg are not directly impacted by the court holding the above districts racial gerrymanders, the local districts may very well be impacted anyway.  Since redrawing the court ordered districts impacts all the districts they touch, North Meck will almost certainly see changes due to that ripple down effect.

Take a look at the below maps from the Mecklenburg BOE.

NC House 98, currently held by Rep John Bradford - R borders NC House 107.  NC House 92, currently held by Chaz Beasley - D, borders NC House 102.  NC Senate 41, currently held by Jeff Tarte - R, almost completely borders NC Senate 38 and 40.  Both NC House 102 and 107 as well as NC Senate 38 and 40 are all impacted by the courts.

What makes this redistricting exercise even a bit more interesting is that according to Mecklenburg Senator Jeff Jackson - D the 2010 census data is the data that will be used.  Jackson has been one of the Democrats leading the charge to get ready for 2017 elections if they had occurred.  aShortChronicle asked him about the data to be used a while ago.   This means even though these districts are being redrawn now, the map makers will be using data that is nearly 7 years old.  That makes sense because 2010 was the last official census.  2010 data is also the data that would have been used if the legislature has drawn the districts at the time without the court recognized gerrymanders.

However, using 2010 data does mean these new districts won't account for all of the growth that has happened in North Mecklenburg since 2010, and because of that regardless of what happens with this current redistricting exercise, these new districts are likely to be short lived - lasting only for the 2018 and 2020 election cycles.

That's because when you do account for the growth since 2010 these districts are already some of the most skewed in the state based on population.  What that means is they've gotten too big by population to be within the standards meant to keep districts the same size so ever vote counts proportionally the same..

Take a look at the below maps from the UNC Demography Center.

The takeaway from these two maps is that all of the North Mecklenburg districts NC House 98 and 92 as well as NC Senate 41) are in orange.  That means they are more than 5% larger than they should be and need to be redrawn.  Furthermore, that was based on 2014 data.  By the 2020 census, these districts will be so out of proportion, they very well may need to be redrawn significantly.  (Incidentally, the same can be said for our US Congressional District, NC-12)

All of this is happening because the greater Charlotte region is one of the fastest growing areas in the state., and even the country. In response to all that growth, all of these districts will have to get geographically smaller to remain the same size in population as other districts in the state.  That's particularly true if map makers try to keep legislative districts within a single county whenever possible.

So, when you see news reports on all this as this story unfolds, don't get too excited or disappointed about what happens with this 2017 effort. but know that here in North Mecklenburg the really big changes will come after 2020.

Planned Parenthood's campaign mercenaries on the march locally

The "dark money" behind NC Families First pounding local Republican candidates doesn't just go to buying a hale of flyers or ominous TV ads.  It's also buying an army of paid boots on the ground via Planned Parenthood.

Planned Parenthood uses a front company called Community Outreach Group, LLC to pay canvassers who look like "volunteers" to spread information during campaigns.

Notice the red underline of Action Fund.  So far this campaign season NC Families First has donated $483,500 to Planned Parenthood Action PAC NC for a "Canvassing Program".  This is according to the NC Families First recent IRS filings.

Here's the job posting from the Planned Parenthood connected group for Charlotte looking to hire paid canvassers to get involved in local races.

You will of course notice that the ad makes no mention of the affiliation with Planned Parenthood.  Instead, similar to the flyers put out by NC Families First its focus is I77 tolls.  The group's other ads clearly state it is a part of Planned Parenthood.

No group is at ground zero of the culture war over social issues more than Planned Parenthood.  Does anyone believe they care at all about I77 tolls?

No, of course they don't.  They care about getting people elected to push their social issues agenda.

Who do you think the largest abortion provider in the country will be pushing with this effort?

Will Planned Parenthood push John Bradford who has been endorsed by Kurt Nass and the I77 Business Plan - the leading anti-toll advocates?

Or...

Will Planned Parenthood be pushing Jane Campbell, the candidate endorsed by Lillian's List - the leading abortion rights advocacy group in the state.

You don't have to think too hard on that one now do you?

Update:  Nick Ochsner with WBTV has this story up now on this topic.  Once confronted by a TV reporter, the Planned Parenthood ads related to I77 were taken down.

527 group targeting Bradford and Caulfield in NC98 & NC92 also behind controversial ad for NC Supreme Court

You know your ad has crossed a line when it's attacking a Republican and even Public Radio questions it.

Facts Without Context? The ‘Snake’ Ad Focuses Attention On Fight For Control Of The NC Supreme Court. -WFAE.org

Then again, when it's the same outfit that has been flooding mailboxes here in North Mecklenburg with attack ads maybe it's not all that surprising.

NC Families First, the 527 group out of Raleigh funded with big $$$ from Washington, DC, is the group behind the recent ad attacking Justice Bob Edmunds in his reelection bid to the NC Supreme Court. NCFF is the same group covered extensively here at aShortChronicle this election season. (See here, here, and here.)

The WFAE story hits the highlights on the issues around the opaqueness of the money behind this group, but it misses a few key points.

WFAE mentions some of the big DC donors covered in our earlier story, but they miss the fact that the man behind NC Families First, a lawyer out of Raleigh named Michael Weisel, is the same person behind multiple of these 527 and 501(c)4 organizations.

On 10/18 and 10/19 NC Families First received payments totaling $1.595 million and by 10/21 had spent over $900,000 on ads against Bob Edmunds.

The groups supplying the funds were Make North Carolina First and Real Facts NC.  Both of these groups are also connected to Weisel.   His signature is on their campaign finance docs and other documentation as well.  In fact, searching the sites for the NC Board of Elections, IRS, FollowNCMoney.org, OpenSecrets.org, and the NC Secretary of State one finds at least 6 different groups Weisel works with/for in North Carolina politics.

Michael Weisel seems to be the center of gravity of a coordinated effort when it comes to moving large sums of money around in support of left leaning causes and candidates.  It is an effort that is willing to spend several million dollars this election cycle.

Now, in addition to targeting races in the state legislature, that money is looking to take control of the NC Supreme Court.

Jane Campbell's latest flyer denies impact of social issues on her campaign.

aShortChronicle has covered the blizzard of campaign flyers funded by dark money blasting Rep John Bradford in support of Jane Campbell's quest to unseat the NC98 incumbent. Those flyers have been mostly about the I77 HOT lanes issue.

The interesting and contradictory point about those flyers was that Campbell's stated reason for getting in the race was the controversy around HB2 - not I77.

Now comes a flyer from the NC Democrats stating Campbell's priority isn't even HB2!!!

(Underlines Added)

This of course does not mesh with media reports or Campbell's own campaign website.

Posted on JaneCampbellforNCHouse.com...

“HB2 was really the tipping point for me,” said Jane Campbell.

There's also this one on her site and this podcast as well which focus primarily on HB2 being the reason for her entering the race.

This most recent flyer also bashed Rep Bradford over "social issues" more generally.  Yet, Campbell's campaign has been endorsed by multiple social issue advocacy groups that would be described as anything but moderate.

The Human Rights Campaign (HRC) is the country's leading LGBT advocacy group.  HRC advocacy was behind passing the City of Charlotte ordinance which spawned the whole HB2 controversy.  The HRC endorsed Cambell in September.

Lillian's List has also endorsed Campbell.  The group is the state version of Emily's List.  It is the leading pro abortion rights advocacy group in the state.  aShortChronicle told readers about Lilian's list two years ago when the group endorsed Bradford's former opponent, Democrat Natasha Marcus.  Lillian's List has Campbell listed as one of their featured candidates this election cycle.

In the linked podcast, Campbell admits that if she had filed during the open filing period, she would have run as a Democrat.  Instead, she is on the ballot as an Unaffiliated candidate.

Misleading flyers both against her opponent and in support of her campaign should not dissuade voters from knowing who they are voting for in this election.

Campbell is running on as the effective replacement Democrat on a standard Democrat social issues platform this campaign season.

John Bradford attracts some outside support in race for NC House 98

As aShortChronical has reported on extensively, Rep John Bradford has been the target of a blizzard of flyers paid for by NC Families First - a shadowy outfit funded by big DC money.

Well, it now appears Bradford is finally getting a little outside help as well in the flyer battle for NC98.

In recent days aShortChronicle HQ has received a few flyers from two organizations - "Mainstreet Merchants for a Better North Carolina" and the "NC Realtors"

The Mainstreet flyers hit mailboxes first with the NC Realtor drops occurring at the end of last week.

Here are a few things to notice about these flyers versus the ones from NC Families First.

• These ads are all "support" ads for Bradford, not attack ads hitting his opponent.  In fact, Mainstreet has a history of only running support ads.
• The money spent by these organizations appears to be significantly smaller than that of NC Families First. 
• The money spent looks like it goes NC firms, not those in DC.

Outside money is an unfortunate fact of life in politics these days.  Now, some of it is flowing both ways in the final days of the race for NC98.

#NCGA: Big DC money coming after John Bradford

A local pol asked me a couple weeks ago about the finance reports for the candidates in the race for NC House 98.  With only Q2 reports in the system at NCSBE.gov it looked like money might not be a huge factor in the race.

Since the Q2 reports are almost a full quarter behind at this point lots more money has likely flowed in for both candidates by now.

A couple weeks later it seems the big money may not be coming from the campaigns, but from Washington DC instead.

Since that exchange we've seen the beginning of a wave of flyers attacking Bradford from "NC Families First" a 527 dark money outfit out of Raleigh.  One unconfirmed source tells aShortChronicle they had heard there may be a couple dozen of these before election day.  The fact that 3 have already hit since last Wednesday is a good indication that may be true.  In the mechanics of an election, it wouldn't make sense to fire off three of these this far out from election day if you weren't going to keep doing it.

An earlier post mentioned that NC Families First was active in the 2014 campaign, but that there wasn't any information on FollowNCMoney.org for them this cycle.  That's true.

HOWEVER...we here at aShortChronicle are a persistent lot.

527 organizations have to report to the IRS, so it seemed like a good idea to check IRS.gov to see what we could find.

The Q2 reports there for "NC Families First" show the below "contributions" and "expenditures"

CONTRIBUTIONS

EXPENDITURES

By Q2 2016, NC Families First has gotten:

$450k from The Democratic Governors Association...in Washington, DC

$1.475m from NC Citizens for Protecting Our Schools, a group that historically receives most of its cash from the NEA...in Washington, DC.

The oh so innocently named NC Families First has spent:

$620k with Great American Media...an ad company right down K street in...you guessed it...Washington, DC

While it's obvious a lot of this cash will flow to support Roy Cooper in his race against Gov McCrory, a good bit is left to pound other candidates into submission.

Expect the anti-Bradford flyers to keep on coming - funded by Washington cash.

#NCGA: 2nd anti-Bradford mailer from shadowy group hits area mailboxes.

On Wednesday, aShortChronicle told readers about a mailer from NC Families First - a partisan, dark money spending operation with a history of going after Republicans.  The mailer that landed that day went after NC-98 Rep John Bradford on the I77 toll issue.

Well, it turns out that mailer was just the first of a two barrel blast from NC Families First this week with the second one firing on Friday.  Here it is...

NC Families First Mailer

The points made on this second flyer were exactly the same as the ones made in the first, so there's no need to debunk them again here.

HOWEVER...

There was something interesting noticed with this second one.

On Tuesday we told you about the previous flyers mailed in support of Campbell by the Democratic Party of North Carolina.  All of these flyers were Authorized by Campbell and all had some level of focus on the I77 toll issue.  One of those mentioned Bradford specifically.

NC Democrats Mailer

In the bottom left hand corner of both flyers lists the "fact check" references for the statements made.

Here they are up close.  The top is from NC Families First and the bottom is from the NC Democrats.

Notice anything?  Take a good close look.

Four out of six references on each flyer are exactly the same.

Out of all the stories on the I77 issue done over multiple years by various print, TV, and online media outlets these two completely independent operations pick the same four out of six media reports to reference in hit pieces targeting the same person.

One paid for by the Democratic Party and one paid for by a dark money operation with 2014 campaign ties to the "eviscerate" crowd.

Hmmmm...

#NCGA: NC-98 Rep John Bradford about to get "Blueprinted"?

Is the race for NC House 98 about to get ugly?

This spring, Unaffiliated candidate Jane Campbell of Davidson waged a successful petition effort to get on the ballot for the NC98 race after the official filing period for this election cycle was over.  HB2 was what motivated her to get into the contest according to her campaign website. 

Without a candidate of their own the Democrats have jumped in full force behind Campbell.

Over the past couple of weeks1 three different 8x10 mailers from the Democratic Party of North Carolina landed in local mailboxes.  All were in support of Campbell.  Interestingly, only one barely even mentioned HB2.  Instead, all three prominently featured Campbell's stated opposition to the I-77 HOT Lanes project.

That's a testament to the power if that issue locally.  And frankly, it would be surprising if any candidate running for office in LKN didn't use it.

On Wednesday though a fourth mailer arrived.  This one from an outfit called "NC Families First".

Attack Ad Paid for by NC Families First

So, who is NC Families First?

Well according to FollowNCMoney.org it's a dark money group that spent over $2.2 million on 2014 NC State Legislature races - all on ads against Republicans.

The group seems to be an end point of a money trail - meaning it's the one actually buying the ads after the money flows through other groups.

No reports are up on the State campaign finance site for this group this cycle.  But, where did NC Families First get its money in 2014? 

In 2014 it got $1.74 million from "North Carolina Citizens for Protecting Our Schools".  That group got a lot of its money from the NEA and a number of other left leaning organizations.

NC Families First also got $100,000 in 2014 from a group called America Votes.

Who is America Votes?

Well, they would probably not be known to anyone if it were not for their executive director, Jessica Laurenz.  Laurenz penned the now infamous "eviscerate" memo circulated at a Blueprint NC meeting back in early 2013.  That memo single-handedly coined the term "Blueprinting" as a reference to going after Republican candidates by any means necessary.

The dishonesty on display in the most recent ad against Bradford shows where this is likely to go.

It starts with a truth.  Yes, Bradford voted to keep the project alive as a town commissioner in Cornelius.  He also won reelection after doing that.  The ad conveniently let's readers believe Bradford has been a suporter of the project all along.  In fact, once the contract details started to be known inuding the potential toll rates Bradford opposed the project.  He was one of the signers of a letter from a majority of local commissioners asking for the contract to be delayed.  He also helped lead the charge in tbe NC House along with former Rep Charles Jeter to cancel the contract after it was signed.  Finally the ad quotes an article which is largely referencing a letter from NCDOT Sec Nick Tennyson - arguably the most pro-toll bureaucrat in the entire state.

It will be interesting to see who is funding the oh so innocently named "NC Families First" this election cycle.  If it's once again the "eviscerate" crowd the race for NC-98 could be about to get ugly.

Hudson Files for NC House 98

Thursday afternoon, things got a little more interesting here in North Mecklenburg in the race for the Republican nomination for NC House 98.

Conservative activist Sharon Hudson of Huntersville filed for office today seeking the Republican nomination in the race to replace Thom Tillis in the Legislature - bringing the total to three candidates on the Republican side.

Hudson is a founder of the new Lake Norman Conservatives activist group, and she has been active in Republican Party politics in the local area.  Last year she was involved in many of the efforts opposing the HOT Lanes project for widening I77 including the efforts to get a resolution opposing HOT lanes passed at the MeckGOP convention and getting a plank added to the NCGOP party platform opposing the toll lanes.

In the primary race Hudson faces John Bradford and Lynette Rinker of Cornelius.  Both Rinker and Bradford served as elected officials during last year's raging debate on the HOT lanes project - casting crucial local votes in support of the effort.

Even though anti-toll candidates generally came up short during the 2013 election cycle, a three way race where this is an issue once again could yield some excitement.  A split "establishment" vote between Bradford and Rinker opens up the possibility that no candidate gets to 40% of the vote in the May primary.  That would force a high-stakes, mid-summer, run-off in a low turn out second primary.

If Ms. Hudson makes it into a run-off as the sole anti-toll candidate, it could be a real toss-up and anyone's guess how that will turn out.

NC House 98 Fundraising: Abortion and Big Dollars Top Stories

The first round of campaign finance reports came in last week for the race to replace Thom Tillis in NC House District 98, and as usual when you follow the money some interesting things pop up.

On Democratic Party side of the race, Davidson resident Natasha Marcus reports a very respectable sum of $47,379.03 in total receipts with $39,435.95 on hand.  This comes from a donor base of over 140 including some Davidson politicos - Commissioner Rodney Graham, Former Commissioner Margo Williams, and Former Davidson Mayor Randall Kincaid. Notably, the total receipts includes only a $500 loan from the candidate, so if Ms. Marcus decides to put in any sizable amount of her own money she will certainly have enough to remain competitive financially.

Most of Marcus's donations came from the local area or from what appear to be family members, but one donation stood out - a $2528 contribution from the campaign committee of former State Senator Eleanor Kinnaird (D-Chatham, Orange).  A little research reveals that Sen Kinnaird has long been supported by Lillian's List - North Carolina's leading lobbying group opposing restrictions on abortion.  The group is modeled off of Emily's List, the national group that is Kay Hagan's largest supporter.  Here's how the organization describes itself on its website.

"Lillian’s List of NC is a statewide community of individuals who work to recruit, train, promote and support pro-choice progressive women running for public office in North Carolina. We are modeled after EMILY’s List and provide financial, strategic, and political support to women serving in the state legislature and the Council of State. We also strategically recruit new candidates committed to reproductive freedom and equality for women."  

The site also states that during the last election cycle Lillian's List and its supporters funneled over $250,000 to its favored list of candidates.  When Senator Kinnaird liquidated her campaign fund after resigning her office last year, the last two donations went to two other candidate campaign committees, those for Natasha Marcus in NC98 and Kim Hanchette NC49 - the two candidates currently highlighted on Lillian's List.

It remains to be seen if abortion will be a major issue in the NC98 race, but this donation combined with others from Lillian's List fundraisers and member donors likely will make this interest group the largest combined donor group to the Marcus campaign.

On the Republican side, the big story is the huge campaign war chest Cornelius Commissioner John Bradford has amassed - $154,000.  Yes, you read that right!  What makes this interesting is that it comes almost entirely in the form of a personal loan from Bradford to his campaign.  Certainly, the campaign will be bringing in quite a few donations, but at this point it's almost all Bradford's own money.

Self-funding of campaigns is not uncommon.  For example, when Thom Tillis ran for this same seat in 2006, he loaned his campaign a total of just over $100,000 out of total fundraising of around $150,000.  What makes the Bradford loan different is that he's loaning the money all at one time.  Tillis loaned the money in eight different installments over the course of the campaign.

And that's where things get even more interesting.  It appears Bradford may have been originally planning on taking that same approach of loaning money in chunks, but changed his mind.  According to the filing documents, Bradford loaned his campaign $10,000 on Christmas Eve.  However, the documents also show that the loan was repaid the same day.  Then, on December 26th, Bradford made the much larger $150,000 loan.  The information about the original $10,000 loan did not show up in the campaign finance reports until the report filed this past Monday, February 4th.  In the original paperwork filed by the campaign back in December, it looked like a single loan had been made when in fact there had been two.

So, why the change of mind?  Two possible explanations come to mind.

1.  $10,000 doesn't scare anybody in politics.  On the other hand, $150,000 sends a message.  For example, Bradford's only announced Republican opponent, former Cornelius Mayor Lynette Rinker, has only $3000 on hand according to her campaign finance reports for the same period.  Who knows? Bradford's war chest, might scare her off from even filing if it's clear she can't compete financially.

2.  Bradford likely has strong expectations of future fundraising, and maybe he expects to be able to pay himself back quickly during the campaign.  He has already lined up an impressive list of endorsements from elected officials, and he appears to be running an extensive campaign.  It's possible that he has been well assured of getting back some of his money sooner rather than later.  Again by comparison, it took Thom Tillis's campaign until 2013 to pay back just $50,000 of the loans he made his campaign.

Big-money is a big part of big-time politics.  Where that money comes from and how much is spent frequently drives campaign issues and the outcomes.  In this very Republican leaning district according to the latest Civitas Partisan Index, how this plays out will be something to watch.