Sunday, October 12, 2014

Post 300 and a New Direction

Post 300...

In the nearly three year run for this blog, it has covered a lot of topics.  Good government and transparency top the list of things getting the most enthusiastic attention.  Elections and candidates have made for interesting subjects.  Then there have been the big infrastructure projects like the Red Line and the HOT lanes - projects that are by their very nature political.  I've also picked on some of our local media and their coverage of events.

By covering the minutia of how government works and how the media covers it, hopefully that has shown a little light on things for readers  It is often pretty clear when a post hits a nerve based on comments and emails it receives.  More subtly, every now and then, small positive changes can be seen in how local government works on topics covered here.  Seeing that makes the time spent well worth it.

But let me be really clear about one thing, what I do here is not "journalism".  I don't try to hide where I'm coming from on topics.   Rather than journalism, I would describe it as editorial mixed with bit of satire and a side of educated citizen activism.  It is not just journalists who have the right and responsibility to keep an eye on what our public officials are doing.  That is really the responsibility of all of us .

Some in our local media seem to be confused on that last point.

Some, but not all...

You may have noticed that the recent post on the NMRW meeting with Thom Tillis was in the latest Herald Weekly.  We hope that will be a regular occurrence going forward for the foreseeable future in the form of a weekly column on the subjects we normally cover here.

A big thanks goes out to the folks at the Herald for giving me the opportunity.  This should in no way change the topics we cover, but it may change the timing of when certain posts go up here.  It will be an interesting challenge, and I am definitely looking forward to it.

Friday, October 10, 2014

Who is winning the I77 HOT lanes messaging competition?

This week saw NCDOT finally get around to hosting their public information forums on the HOT lanes project.   Dozens of staffers were on hand to answer questions.  There were several booths covering different topics and several rows of giant maps for attendees to traverse.  There was even this highly produced 5-minute video on the project playing on a constant loop. 



However, even with all this effort and expense one still had to wonder if once again the NCDOT had missed the mark in "communicating" with the public.

If you knew very little about the project, it's hard to see how a consistent message could be communicated with so many staffers milling about talking to people.   If you knew a lot about the project there was no new information presented, and what was presented was overly rosy.

Watch the video and you see what I mean.   There is no mention of Cintra - the foreign company behind the project - only their local subsidiary I77 Mobility Partners is mentioned.  There is no mention of total project costs or the 50-year contract to manage the lanes.  There is also nothing in the video that lets people know what the tolls will be - not even close.

To add to it, the narrator's voice kept making me think of some futuristic utopian movie like the Running Man or the Hunger Games.   It definitely had that "too good to be true" feeling where you just know something awful is lurking behind the scenes.

Compare that to the WidenI77.org/anti-toll actions this week. 

They had a meeting at the Lucky Dog Bark and Brew to discuss the real impacts to business along the corridor that will be negatively impacted (possibly fatally impacted) by the construction that's to come.  Also, some very effective signs that went up this week - one at the intersection of 73 and 21 in Huntersville and one spotted Friday afternoon on the side of a pontoon in Lake Norman near the .

Those signs alone probably reached 10 times the numbers of people at a fraction of the cost as NCDOTs 8 hours of open houses.

For the week, the "Community Outreach" edge goes to WidenI77.org

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

NMRW Provides Safe Harbor for Thom Tillis

If you listen to the pundits and believe the polls, it would be hard to describe the past few weeks as "smooth sailing" for the Thom Tillis campaign trying to capture the North Carolina US Senate seat up for grabs this election cycle.  Tillis has been trailing Kay Hagan by a stubborn three to five percentage points in the RealClearPolitics.com polling average.  At the same time, while most national pundits recently started talking about a building Republican wave across the country, those same pundits invariably mention the North Carolina Senate race as the outlier or exception to that trend.

Against that backdrop, the Tillis campaign pulled into a safe harbor at last week’s North Mecklenburg Republican Women's Club annual "Pig Pickin and Politickin" event at the Peninsula Club on Lake Norman.  It was a homecoming of sorts for the local politician now shooting for one of the highest elected offices in the land.  The NMRW is the official Republican Party outlet here in North Mecklenburg, and Thom Tillis was one of the charter “associate members” when club formed in 2009.  He has been a regular guest speaker ever since.

To give you a sense of how much interest there is in this race, organizers turned away television outlets from as far away as Japan.  There was extra security on hand and club members were on the lookout for Hagan campaign "trackers" or unwelcome guerilla videographers trying to make their way into the private event - big-time preparations for a group more accustomed to events covering legislative updates and local town issues.

When it came time for Thom Tillis to take the stage you could sense the anticipation in the air.  Attendees wanted to see the fire and passion they know exists in the Republican candidate - their candidate.  It's a passion and a fight that some see missing from the Tillis campaign commercials airing in recent weeks.

Thom Tillis delivered!

In a speech lasting about 10 minutes, Tillis hit a number of the red meat topics for the roughly 150 party faithful in attendance.  He covered immigration by stating "we need to seal the border" - even going as far as saying Ronald Reagan "got it wrong" with his amnesty in the '80s.  He criticized President Obama for hiding from the issues with Obamacare by pushing back its implementation dates - ensuring voters get the next round of cancellation notices only after election-day.  Turning to foreign affairs, he took a strong stand in taking on the Islamic State (ISIS) and referenced the beheading of a British aid worker earlier that day.  Of course, he also pegged Kay Hagan for her part in supporting the President’s handling of all these issues.

When talking about the campaign itself, Tillis did not seem at all concerned.  He referenced his own internal polling showing the race knotted at 44% along with the expectation that undecided voters would break his way.  His take on the race so far was that he had withstood a massive amount of Democratic spending going all the way back to last November while his team had kept their powder dry until after Labor Day.  He said that when asked how he feels about this race, his answer is that he feels the same way he did at this point in 2010 when he was orchestrating a Republican takeover of the legislature.  In that election 16 House races were successfully targeted including a number where Democrats were expected to win.

In short, he displayed the confidence of someone who has done this before all across the state, someone who knows his electorate, and someone who understands what is coming over the next few weeks until election-day.  If that Thom Tillis comes through in the ads and debates between now and November 4th, the national pundits who have all but written off this contest could very well be in for a big surprise.

Look for this post and others in the Herald Weekly.

Monday, September 29, 2014

Mutually Assured Destruction, #NCSEN Style

During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union sat for years with thousands of nuclear weapons pointed at each other.  The reason the Cold War stayed cold was that these warheads created a state of mutually assured destruction between the two super powers.

From Wikipiedia...

Mutual assured destruction, or mutually assured destruction (MAD), is a doctrine of military strategy and national security policy in which a full-scale use of high-yield weapons of mass destruction by two or more opposing sides would cause the complete annihilation of both the attacker and the defender.[1] It is based on the theory of deterrence where the threat of using strong weapons against the enemy prevents the enemy's use of those same weapons. 

As the clock ticks down on the North Carolina US Senate race, the campaigns of Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis seem to have settled into a similar faceoff.  For an race that could decide control of the Senate during the last two years of the Obama presidency, the race has remained decidedly timid.  Even with each side given opportunities to go on the attack over the past week, both sides have remained gun-shy.

First, at the beginning of last week this story broke on WCNC about fishy sounding connections between donations to the Thom Tillis campaign from folks who could benefit from the I-77 HOT Lanes project - a project that Thom Tillis long supported.  It's a 6 minute segment - an eternity for local news.  It also starts with something all but unprecedented.  WCNC reporter, Stuart Watson says right up front in the video that he got the tip for the story from "opposition research" - or in other words the Hagan campaign.

Usually, reporters protect their sources. Usually, a source like this would demand anonymity.  In this case however, the source wanted the Tillis campaign to know exactly where it originated.  This story didn't come from a single underpaid and overworked reporter at WCNC.  It originated from an organization with millions of dollars at its disposal and the single-minded purpose of beating Thom Tillis - an organization with the means and motivation to find more dirt if necessary.

The story was a deterrent.

By the end of last week it became clear why it was needed.

On Thursday, Politico broke this story about Kay Hagan's husband owning a company that directly benefited from some economic stimulus funds - $390,000 to be exact.  The story is bad, really bad.  That's evidenced by some more details added by the Washington Post the next day which show the Hagan team has brought in a fixer with connections all the way to the White House to help manage it.

Both of these stories could have attack adds that all but right themselves.  In both cases, if either contender was not afraid of their opponent's potential response, either of these stories could deal a knockout blow.  So far though, neither campaign has flooded the airwaves with commercials using these story lines.  The hard hitting commercials, the nuclear weapons of major political campaigns, have remained in their silos.

Without those commercials the only people who know about these stories are the political junkies and the partisans.

So, why have they remained silent? 

Mutually Assured Destruction based on the whiff of corruption.  Don't expose mine or I'll destroy you with yours is the message.  However, unlike during the Cold War where M.A.D ensured there was no winner or loser, in November one of these two candidates will be the next US Senator from North Carolina.

Sunday, September 21, 2014

Tillis Campaign at the Tipping Point?

Back in July, we wrote about the NCSEN race possibly being off the critical path in the contest for a Republican majority in the US Senate.  National pundit Larry Sabato had said as much in his Crystal Ball newsletter when he failed to list North Carolina in his listing of the 6 most likely Republican pickups.

Much of Sabato's analysis had to do with the widening of the playing field to include Iowa.  State Senator Joni Earnst had made that an unexpected possibility for the GOP by running a spirited campaign as a conservative in that state's primary and winning handilly.

Over the last two months things have not improved for Team Tillis here in North Carolina and only gotten better for Team Earnst in Iowa.   A look at the recent polls for the two races at RealClearPolitics.com tells the whole story.  Tillis's numbers have been going the wrong way and Earnst is definitely gaining momentum.  This past week Sabato actually moved NC to leans Democrat.

Ouch!!!

The one thing that can turn this type of situation around is money and apparently that is now in short supply as well.  If you are on Republican email lists, you have no doubt recently received the panicky emails from the NRSC begging for money.

How may of those emails do you think received responses like #remebermississippi?  How much money has the NRSC's and Karl Rove's war conservatives this election cycle cost the party and individual candidates?

The number has to be in the many millions of dollars.

So now, the NRSC and it's establishment allies are facing a choice.  They can pour more money from their limited resources into a state like North Carolina in the hopes they can buy the general election for Thom Tillis like they did the Republican primary here, or they can use those limited resources to support a candidate like Earnst in Iowa - the type of candidate they have spent this whole election cycle trying to beat.

There is much to think about in the poetic justice of that choice.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Mayor Apologizes for Commissioner Asking Question to Legislators on HOT Lanes

Things are beginning to get downright weird on the road to signing the final-final-we-really-mean-it -this-time contract with Cintra on the I77 HOT Lanes project.  We're not sure if this is a sign that some are getting antsy about going through with such a bad and unpopular idea, or if this is just a consequence of a long and drawn out fight that establishment pols are not used to having.  Regardless, the pressure seems to be getting to Huntersville Mayor Jill Swain.

Back on August 28th, Huntersville Commissioner Rob Kidwell sent an email to the entire NC Legislature, outlining some of his concerns regarding the HOT Lanes project.  It was polite.  It was chock full of numbers.  It made some very insightful points.  The email closed with the below paragraph.

"I am now going to ask the impossible question and I hope that it does not fall on deaf ears.  Please consider going back in session, and put a stop to this project until we can develop a true plan to address the traffic concerns of a small area that can and will have an impact state wide.  I know that this would be considered quixotic by some, but I urge you to look at all the facts presented.  We continue to hear time and time again that “it’s a done deal.”  If that was true, then why does the NCDOT and Cintra want to have continued meetings in order to sell this concept and project to elected officials and the voting public?"

aShortChronicle and DavidsonNews.net were both copied on this email.  No idea why we were copied, or why other media or bloggers were not.  Getting these types of emails is pretty common.  Frankly, the fact that a single commissioner sent an email to the General Assembly did not seem all that newsworthy, so we did not report on it.  Neither did DavidsonNews.net as far as we know.

Apparently, Huntersville Mayor Jill Swain did not see it that way.

This Monday (over two weeks later!!!), she sent a long-long email to those same legislators apologizing repeatedly for Commissioner Kidwell actually reaching out to them.  Apparently, he didn't follow the "process".  Mayor Swain seemed particularly concerned that Commissioner Kidwell actually identified himself as a Huntersville Commissioner.  She wanted to make sure it was clear that his request for a special session was not an official request from Huntersville.

As one can see from the above email excerpt Commissioner Kidwell uses the word "I", not "the Board" or "Huntersville" when he makes his request.  The rest of the email is the same way.   He does sign it with "Commissioner", but what elected official wouldn't do that when contacting another elected official.  If nothing else, it helps get your message bubbled to the top of the pile.  It's very hard to believe anyone - even a busy legislator - would mistake this as an official request from the town and not just a single commissioner.

But Mayor Swain was not finished...

In what has become standard language for members of the HOT Lanes Bucket Brigade, Mayor Swain then goes on to use the word "misinformation" in an offhand manner.  (She's learned well from her mentor, Davidson Mayor John Woods, on how to call people liars without actually using the word.)  She claims that Commissioner Kidwell's lone email has somehow gotten all of Raleigh up in a swirl.  Commissioner Kidwell's one email has taken up all of the NCDOT's time and that's the reason why the public has been getting only a trickle of information from NCDOT regarding the project.  They've been too busy responding to legislators' questions from this one email to get out more information to the public and prepare for public hearings in a few weeks.  For that, Mayor Swain apologizes for Commissioner Kidwell wasting the Legislators' and NCDOT's time.

According to a follow-up email from Commissioner Kidwell on September 8th, only 4 legislators responded to his original email.  F.O.U.R.

So, you either have to believe dozens of legislators flooded the NCDOT with questions and did not also respond to Commissioner Kidwell, or you have to believe Mayor Swain is just making a lame and desperate attempt to deflect NCDOT's horrible handling of information for this whole project onto one of it's opponents.

Which do you think is more likely?

Monday, September 15, 2014

Davidson Affordable Housing: A Program in Need of Reform.

When the Town of Davidson's mandatory affordable housing ordinance comes up in conversation at town hall, it is usually accompanied by numerous self-administered pats on the back and all-knowing head nods by the program's staunch supporters. To hear some people talk, one would think this single program more than just about anything else makes Davidson, well..."Davidson".  Those same supporters are quick to its defense if anyone suggests otherwise.

An example of that defense occurred last year when the Town's Affordable Housing Coordinator, Cindy Reid, announced a series of meetings to address a program that isn't working.  At the time...
  • there was no waiting list for the mandated for-purchase units in the program, but there was one for rental - a situation the overall program currently does not effectively address.
  • the town had also been dealing with ongoing issues from the county revaluation regarding affordable housing. 
  • many houses in the program went unsold and were eligible to people not meeting the income requirements for the population the program is meant to serve.  According to data provided to aShortChronicle by the town, this number was as high as 1/3 of the all the units sold through  the program.  In the Davidson Bay development which is highly praised for its integration of the affordable housing units, only 3 of 7 for-sale affordable units had been purchased by buyers qualified by the Davidson Housing Coalition.

Still, in light of all this at that May 2013 meeting, Commissioner Connie Wessner voiced concerns about opening up discussion on the topic.   The expectation was that even talking about changes to the program would upset some in town.

In the 15 months since the announcement of the working groups, much has changed:
  • Commissioner Wessner is now former Commissioner Wessner after last fall's elections.  She was the existing program's staunchest supporter on the Town Board.
  • The town has seen its first developer-built affordable housing rental building opened.  Ironically, this building is also at Davidson Bay and has a waiting list - solid proof that rental close to transit and in town is in demand. 
  • The town is staring down a potential lawsuit over the program in general by Artisan Homes - a Davidson based developer whose very own Jay Johnstone was listed as a participant in the working groups started least  year. 

Still, facing a changed political and economic reality is difficult for some to accept.  Planning Board members Brunson Russum and John Kennedy spoke passionately at the September 9th Town Board meeting encouraging the Board to stand strong against potential legal challenges.  They followed this up with some rather aggressive comments on DavidsonNews.net.  They are part of a core group of affordable housing supporters who appear willing to accept just about any cost to preserve the mandatory aspects of the program.

At the other end of the spectrum, there is common sense.  At the most recent Board meeting several possible alternatives were discussed that would make the program less rigid.  They would provide alternatives the current program does not - making it more user friendly and flexible for developers.  Many of the proposed changes would also make the program more attractive to buyers.  In short, they would address the program's issues.  Here is the link to the presentation.  In general, these changes make the program less "mandatory" - for both the developers and the homeowners.

As Davidson's Affordable Housing program moves forward, the question is will common sense reforms win the day, or will those who would rather circle the wagons around a failing program prevail?

To help a program with a long history of issues, let's hope those who want to actually solve problems win out.

Bonus Observation:  aShortChronicle has received information that indicates there could eventually be multiple developers involved in future legal action against the Town - a situation that would raise the stakes even further.  If this case does eventually go to court, expect it to take the same course as the APFO litigation in recent years which eventually resulted in the Davidson ordinance being repealed.  The courts determined that the Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (APFO) was essentially a tax that the Legislature did not authorize municipalities to implement.  The exact same logic could apply to Davidson's Affordable Housing ordinance which is one of only 2 mandatory ordinances in the state.  Making the program more voluntary or at least providing more options may be the only way to actually save it.  Trying to shame developers into going along with an ordinance that may eventually be determined to be illegal certainly would seem to be a less-good option.