#MeckGOP, party unity, and a bad case of foot shooting

More than just about anything this election season, the Republican Party is in need of some party unity.

Last night local Republicans in the MeckGOP had a golden opportunity to achieve a little of that.  Instead party leaders chose to engage in a little foot shooting of their very own feet.

The MeckGOP Executive Committee met Wednesday night to pick a replacement for NC-92 Rep Charles Jeter of Huntersville.  The party needed a replacement both for the remainder of Jeter's term through January and for the ballot this November.  The hands down obvious choice for both spots going into the meeting was to pick Jeter's primary opponent, Tom Davis.

Davis had a long list of endorsements from elected officials including the other two elected members to the NCGA from the North Mecklenburg area, Senator Jeff Tarte and Rep John Bradford.  Davis even got the endorsement from his former opponent Charles Jeter.  That says a lot about Jeter (and Davis) after what was a sharp and pointed primary campaign.

A former campaign worker of Jeter's, Stacy Phillips, posted a complete list of Davis's endorsements to Facebook the day before the meeting.

Then came the meeting Wednesday night and a series of surprises.  Yours truly was not at the meeting, nor have I spoken to any of the parties directly involved since last night.  However, a good bit was posted on Facebook by those who were in the room and were involved.

The first surprise was that Davis was not going to seek the spot on the ballot.  Instead, former Huntersville Commissioner Danae Caulfield was going to seek that appointment.  Caulfied had been a supporter of Davis's since he announced he would be seeking the replacement appointments immediately after Jeter announced his resignation in July.  Caulfield however would NOT be seeking the appointment to fill out Jeter's remaining term.  Davis was going to continue seeking that spot.

Here's how Caulfied explained it in response to the below question from Meck County Commissioner Matthew Ridenhour.  Ridenhour had endorsed Davis.

Caulfield was unanimously selected to be on the ballot by the 7 members of the MeckGOP Executive Committee present from NC92 allowed to vote.

The crazy and unity damaging part of the meeting came when it was time to replace Jeter for the remainder of the current term that ends in January - a mere 4+ months away.  Keep in mind, the NCGA is out of session and not much if anything is going on at the moment in Raleigh  It's election time and those running for office are in their home districts campaigning.

Letting Davis fill the remainder of the term made sense.  He had nearly beaten Jeter in the primary.  He had all the endorsements listed previously and doing so would be a GREAT way to show a little party unity.

Out of the blue, Justin Moore who is apparently a long time activist with the MeckGOP threw his name into the hat for the nomination.

Moore gets the nod, 5-1.

Huntersville Mayor John Aneralla voted for Davis.  Huntersville Commissioners Rob Kidwell and Melinda Bales voted along with 3 others to give the seat to Moore.

The news of this outcome swept social media.  Much of the response would best be classified as anger that Davis had been snubbed.

In response, Moore had this to say on Thursday.

Moore who also had a vote in the decision abstained on Wednesday. Though clearly, he had already counted the votes.  His vote wasn't needed.  That's politics.

But seeking a seat for a few months when there is effectively nothing to do at the expense of an opportunity to foster some party unity, that's certainly not good politics.

County Commissioner Jim Puckett said it best at the end of a long post Tuesday night on the whole series of events.

"Tonight five members of the GOP executive committee decided they knew better than all of the above.  It was another eye-opening example of why the public is disgusted with politics in general.  Contrary to what Donald Trump and Bernie Saunders believe political party politics is not rigged, it is just stupid."

#MeckGOP meets Wednesday to decide replacement for NC92

Correction: The original said there were a few dozen Ex Comm members from NC92.  aShortChronicle has since been told it is only 8. 

The DailyHaymaker.com broke the story over the weekend about the MeckGOP finally calling a meeting to replace Charles Jeter as the NC-92 Representative to the NC House and to pick a replacement candidate for the upcoming election.

According to the copy of the email from MeckGOP Chair Clair Mahoney posted in the story,

"As per Article XV.B of the Mecklenburg County Republican Party Plan of Organization, the purpose of the meeting is to recommend to the Governor the name of an individual to fill the vacancy created by Representative Charles Jeter’s resignation from House District 92 seat, which was effective as of July 25, 2016, and to select a person to fill the vacancy in the Republican nomination for House District 92. No other business may be considered at this meeting."

The appointment to fill out the remainder of of the term vacated by Jeter is somewhat of a non-issue since the NCGA won't be back in session prior to election day - unless for some unexpected reason an emergency special session is needed.

Of more importance to voters is the decision on who replaces Jeter as the Republican candidate in the upcoming election.

Jeter's primary opponent, Tom Davis, is pursuing both.  He's clearly the most logical candidate for the job having just barely missed beating Jeter outright in the spring primary.  He has also lined up several endorsements from local electeds in North Mecklenburg. However, he's apparently not alone in wanting the spot.  A few contacts with those familiar with these kind of meetings predict more than just Davis's name could/will be put up.

Depending on who shows up to the meeting and how many candidates names are nominated, this process could be non-eventful or a real barn burner.

Only MeckGOP Executive Committee members residing in NC92 will be able to vote.  That would only be 8 people, but then not all of them will possibly show up for the meeting.  That means the candidate could be chosen by only a relative handful of people.

With tensions high around several issues, the I77 HOT Lanes project in particular, dirty politics could certainly enter into the mix.

Regardless of the replacement candidate selected, there is the also the question of actually getting on the ballot.

A call into the Mecklenburg Board of Elections Monday morning didn't provide a lot of clarity.  Kristin Mavromatis with the BOE office told aShortChronicle that "no guidance had been received from the State" yet on whether or not a replacement candidate can get on the ballot at this point.  That's the same answer from the BOE as it was three weeks ago right after Jeter resigned.

While it may ultimately be determined that a candidate replacement is allowed, if ballots have already been printed there would be a cost to fixing that (if it's even possible).

While Wednesday night's decision is important, it won't be the last important one for NC-92 voters before casting their ballots this election.

Bonus Observation:  One interesting and unanswered question is why did the MeckGOP wait this long to schedule this meeting?  The MeckGOP waited three weeks .  On the same day the announcement came on the MeckGOP meeting, another Sr NCGOP figure resigned, Majority Leader Mike Hagar from NC 112.  The meeting for his replacement by trhe Rutherford County GOP was announced the same day Hagar resigned.  That meeting is also scheduled for August 17th.

Would the MeckGOP have even bothered to replace Jeter if they were not put on the spot by this other resignation?

It's that kind of lingering question that should give everone pause that they will do the right thing on Wednesday.

#NCGA: Jeter resigns House seat...former opponent Davis seeks to be his replacement

In a surprising move, NC-92 Rep Charles Jeter announced his resignation from the General Assembly on Monday.

Citing the need to focus more on family, Jeter's sudden departure leaves Republicans without a candidate for the seat this November.  Republican party rules state that the county Executive Committee will pick Jeter's replacement.

Jeter's former 2-time primary opponent, Tom Davis, is wasting no time campaignign to fill out the remainder of Jeter's term and for the opportunity to run for the seat as the party's candidate this November.  To that end Davis appears to already have an impressive list of support - puting out this statement on Monday.

Technically, the local GOP big wigs could select anyone they want, but picking someone other than Davis would likely not be a path to success in November.

As aShortChronicle reported after the primary this spring, Davis actually won the precincts in the Republican heart of NC-92 here in North Mecklenburg.  Jeter squeaked out the victory by running up the margins in the southern, more Democratic, part of the district where there are fewer Republican voters but Davis was less well known.

However, the dynamic will be different in the general election this fall when Democrat Chaz Beasley is also on the ballot.

During the primary, Davis ran on an anti-toll platform that resonated with voters in North Mecklenburg - particularly those who saw Jeter's late conversion to the anti-toll effort as somewhat suspect.   Beasley is also running as an anti-toll candidate.

The overall November election will be driven by the Presidential race as much or more than anything, but a candidate in the NC-92 race that doesn't pull strong anti-toll support will be at a distinct disadvantage.

NC-92 is one of the few truly competitive districts in the whole state, so every vote truly does matter here.

What could prove interesting in picking Jeter's replacement is the makeup of the NCGOP members who may do the picking.  Throughout the anti toll fight, the NCGOP has run cover for pro-toll electeds.  The issue has divided Republican and consevative activists in North Mecklenburg in particular.

For replacing Jeter for the remainder of his current term, Ballotpedia.org outlines the NC procedure this way.

"If there is a vacancy in the North Carolina General Assembly, the governor is responsible for appointing a replacement.^[62][63]

When making an appointment, the governor must make a decision from a list of recommended candidates submitted by the political party committee that last held the vacant seat.^[64] The appointment must be made within seven days of receiving a list of recommended candidates.^[63] The person selected to the seat serves for the remainder of the unfilled term.^[63]"

What's the likelihood of McCrory pushing to get that list quickly?  What's the likelihood the NCGOP would put an anti-toll person on the list?

To replace Jeter on the ballot gets a bit more murky. 

G.S. 163-114 says the "County executive committee of political party in which vacancy occurs" - meaning the MeckGOP Exec Committee - is the body responsible for picking the replacement candidate.  In fact it is just the subset of this committee from NC92.

If this group were to pick a candidate it's unclear if Davis would get the nod.  There are a number of pro-tollers in the bunch who would likely fight it.

However, this section also references a 120 day window for replacing a candidate.  Since it is less than 120 days until the election, it's unclear if Jeter can even be replaced on the ballot at this point - effectively leaving Republicans without a candidate.

If the local GOP establishment decides to continue its pro-toll political cover, it is possible they could pick someone other than Davis to replace Jeter or pick nobody at all to send to the Governor.  If they can't replace Jeter on the ballot for November, or don't fight to be able to do so then that makes winning  an almost insurmountable climb for any Republican.

However, this would all prove only one thing.  They would rather lose a House seat, than cross those higher up the political food chain who they've been covering.

Clarification: An earlier version of this post incorrectly said the MeckGOP executive committee was responsible for these selections.  Per discussion with Mecklenburg BOE Director, Michael Dickerson, only MeckBOE members in NC-92 will pick.  They would only be responsible for the canddiate replacement if it's allowed.  He has a question out to the State BOE regarding the 120 day window.

#NCGA: Jeter ahead in squeaker for NC-92 House seat

In preliminary totals, NC House Rep Charles Jeter leads challenger Tom Davis by a mere 28 votes after election day.   That's 3719 votes for Jeter to 3691 for Davis, or 50.19% to 49.81%

Per Tom Davis Wednesday morning, they are still waiting on provisional and final absentee totals, so things could possibly change one way or the other with a recount.

Taking a look at the precinct level maps from election day shows a good picture of how this race unfolded.

2016 Primary Election
Jeter shown in Red.  Davis shown in Tan.

Davis rolled up big victories in Huntersville precincts in the north end of the district - winning those precincts by double digit percentages.  However, Jeter overcame that by winning the southern end of the district.

Davis was running as an anti-toll candidate which clearly resonated in the northern precincts that will be impacted by the I77 HOT lanes project.  His margin of victory there becomes even more stark when one considers this was Jeter's home turf as a former Huntersville Commissioner.

Interestingly, this is almost the exact opposite of the precinct level results from the first Jeter vs Davis contest back in the 2012 primary. In that race Jeter ran up huge totals in Huntersville and Davis won the southern end of the district.   See below.

2012 Primary Election
Jeter shown in light green.  Davis shown in dark green.

In 2016, Jeter actually saw his raw vote total fall in 3 of 5 Huntersville precincts when compared to 2012.  This happened even while overall turnout across the district was up significantly.  That does not bode well for Jeter's general election hopes if he is ultimately declared the winner of this year's close primary.

The below map shows the precinct outcomes from the 2012 general election.  That's a good comparison because it was also a presidential election year.

2012 General Election
Jeter shown in Red, Bradford shown in blue.

The precincts Jeter won on Tuesday almost match exactly the ones he lost during the 2012 general election.  Combine that with what would appear to be lower popularity in his home precincts, and that's not a good recipe for success in one of the few partisanly competitive districts in the state.

Bonus Observation:  As close as this contest was on Tuesday, it was not the closest legislative primary for the NC House.  That honor went to the Democratic Primary for NC House 103 between Rochelle Rivas and Noah Lieberman.  In that race Rivas leads by just 10 votes, 3235 to 3225.