Voters chose punishment over politics this election season.

More than three weeks since election day, it’s still not over. (Though we're getting closer.)

As of Friday night, election outcomes of the two “chief executive” offices affecting North Carolina voters  - President of the United States and Governor of North Carolina - are both being challenged by recount requests.  In both cases, transition teams are moving forward as if nothing will change as the result of these requests, but still, for supporters of Hillary Clinton and Pat McCrory, there’s this overwhelming feeling that it “wasn’t supposed to be this way.”

In both cases, the outcomes can be traced to major changes in voting patterns in what had been dependable geographies for both political parties.  In the case of Clinton and the Democrats on the national level the Upper Midwest went from reliably blue to red.  For Pat McCrory in North Carolina it was the Lake Norman region that turned against him and voted for Roy Cooper in large numbers.

In both cases, voters in these areas chose to send their ‘traditional” candidate packing while helping cause unexpected victory for the other – assuming those victories stand.  More pointedly, in both cases the losing side had ample warning to prevent the losses, yet those warnings were ignored.  Candidates campaigned clearly thinking “their voters” wouldn’t dare do the unthinkable and support the other side.

In the race for President, the impact of the Upper Midwest can be seen in a series of maps published by New York Times just days after the election.  Google “landslide counties 2016” to see them.

In the November 10th Times article you’ll see that since 1992 as the country became increasingly polarized between rural Republican red counties and urban Democrat blue counties, the Upper Midwest states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa remained stubbornly “grey”.  That finally changed this election cycle with the rural parts of these states going heavily Republican.

While public polls didn’t show this occurring, there was an early sign that something was wrong with Hillary Clinton’s message in this part of the country.  The proverbial “canary in the coal mine” for Democrats was the March Democratic Party primary in Michigan where Bernie Sanders pulled off a surprising victory.

The Sanders Campaign message on trade was very similar to that of Donald Trump and that message clearly resonated in this area of the country.  If you look at the counties Sanders won in Michigan’s primary election, they closely mirror the ones that went landslide Republican for the first time this year in the general election.

A similar dynamic on a smaller scale played out here in North Carolina to undermine Pat McCrory’s reelection bid

The I77 HOT Lanes issue has raged very publicly since 2013 during the entire tenure of Pat McCrory’s term as Governor.  The anti-toll activist group Widen I77 held its first big public meeting on January 14th, 2013 – two days after McCrory’s inauguration.  Since then the issue has consumed all the electoral oxygen from every election cycle in the Lake Norman area.  Elected officials communicated in every possible way that this was going to be a major issue locally for McCrory in his reelection bid.  As a Republican bastion for  years, any significant dip in support here could have game changing consequences state wide.  Finally, you had the Huntersville election in 2015 and the NC-92 House primary this year as data points showing people in LKN were voting heavily based on this issue.

All of these warnings were ignored.

The end result was 33,000 votes lost for McCrory in thee Lake Norman area compared to his successful campaign in 2012.  That number is according to some post election analysis done by Kurt Naas, founder of Widen I77.   You can find more details on that at Naas’s blog - NCRidiculousness.Wordpress.com.  As of Monday night that was more than three times Cooper’s 9,716 vote lead.

The lesson learned from these two examples is this.

If you take enough voters for granted for a long enough period of time, eventually those voters will actually say “ENOUGH!”  When that happens no politician should be surprised to see those voters choose punishment over politics.

This post first appeared in the Herald Weekly at HuntersvilleHerald.com.  Minor updates made since.

"Formal Appeal" or Desperate Plea from McCrory Campaign as Cooper lead grows

Roy Cooper's lead in the NC Governor's race ballooned on Monday as more updated vote totals rolled in to the NCSBE.  As of Monday night, the lead stood at 9,716 votes according to the NCSBE website.

And almost as if on queue, Monday afternoon Pat McCrory’s campaign manager, Russell Peck, sent out an email asking for money to fight the tide. Regular readers of aShortChronicle will remember Peck from these posts here and here.

In an email titled "Formal Appeal", Peck makes what sounds more like a desperate plea for cash as time appears to be running out.

Over the weekend, attorney and registered Durham County voter Thomas Stark filed a formal appeal with the State Board of Elections in relation to the ‘malfeasance’ in tabulating approximately 90,000 ballots that were reported just before midnight on Election Day.

It was concerning to learn that the Durham County Board decided to not approve Tom Stark’s protest to recount early vote totals from election night.

The malfunctions and irregularities in Durham have been extremely troubling to this campaign and the people of North Carolina, and the State Board confirmed several errors. 

We are now left with no other position but to request the State Board of Elections expeditiously order a full recount of Durham County early vote totals.

We need funds to help us finish the job. Please contribute to the Legal Defense Fund TODAY!

Russell Peck
Team McCrory

The "malfunctions and irregularities" in Durham County may be troubling to Peck but they weren't the biggest problem for the campaign he was managing.

Take a look at the below numbers from the counties with the 4 largest cities in NC.

Of the four metro area counties, the vote share for the Democrat candidate was up the least in Durham County compared to 2012.  That's both in percentage terms and in raw numbers.  You'll also notice that Durham is consistently overwhelmingly Democrat with the Dem candidate capturing over 70% the past three election cycles.

Even if the recount request eventually does goes forward in Durham and even if it finds some issue, it doesn't pass the smell test that enough erroneous votes could possibly be found there to overcome Cooper's growing lead.

Rather than writing a check to Mr Peck, the fiscally conservative thing to do would be to keep one's money safely in their own bank account.

Remaking the Electoral College Map? Only time will tell.

Did this election cycle redraw the Electoral College map?  Does it signal some realignment of the national electorate for decades to come?

If you are a Republican, after seeing Donald Trump shatter the fabled Democratic Blue Wall in the Upper Mid West you say "yes.  If you are a Democrat still reeling from the election you shudder at the thought.

There has been much concern, hand wringing, and downright anger over the past several days at the mechanics of the Electoral College that decides our Presidential elections.  For the second time in less than 20 years, the popular vote winner will not be the winner in the Electoral College and that has started once again the arguments about getting rid of it.  It's a valid discussion, but changing the Electoral Collage is a discussion that likely won't be resolved anytime soon - maybe ever.

As for the discussion about does this election signal a long term change in the electoral map itself, that's a different matter.  Democrats can take comfort that history would tell us "no" one election does not indicate much when it comes to the map itself.

Starting with the Electoral College map from 1948, the first post WWII election cycle, scroll through the maps available on Wikipedia for each Presidential election.

The first map is the one that spawned the famous, and eroneous, "Dewey Defeats Truman" headline.

1948 Election from Wikipedia

If you scroll through the maps you will see clearly that there have been several true redrawings of the map over the subsequent 58 years - as few as six and as many as eight depending on how you count.

Look at this map from the 1964 Johnson/Goldwater race.  Democrats probably thought they had the Presidency locked up for a while after this one.

Johnson/Goldwater 1964

Just two cycles later Nixon/McGovern gave us this map in 1972.

Nixon/McGovern 1972

That map didn't hold long. Nixon resigned after achieving this solid red map, and things turned Blie again with Lyndon Johnson.

The general outlines of the map we have now fell into place with the 2000 Bush Gore election.

Bush/Gore 2000

President Obama chipped away at this map by adding Colorado, Nevada, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina to the Democratic tally.  The Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia adds seemed to signal a Democrat resurgence in the South, but two cycles later NC and FL are back voting Republican with VA being very close.

Trump did something similar with his close wins in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania this election.  They were certainly pivotal this cycle, but will they hold?  In response, you can be sure the Democrats won't be caught flat-footed in those states next Presidential election season.

The truth is this.

In one or two cycles the map can change radically.  It has in the past and likely will again in the future.  Candidates and national circumstances matter as much as anything else - including demographics..

2016: The "Landslide" Election

Landslide? What landslide?!?!

2016 shaped up to be one of the closer Presidential elections in memory.  Hillary Clinton wins the popular vote while Donald Trump wins the Electoral College with many of his winning states coming by incredibly close margins.

With all of these being true, how can this be a "landslide" election?

The answer to that question can be found in two articles from the NY Times.  The first article was published a few days before the election and the second article a few days after.  These articles covered the growth in "landslide counties" since the 1992 election with a county defined as "landslide" when either party wins the county by 20% or more.

In 1992 both parties had a little more than 500 such counties across the country.  After 2012 the Democrat landslide counties dwindled to 281 while Republican counties exploded to 1724.

In 2016 the trend continued and even accelerated in some areas.

Here are the statistics from the two NYTimes articles put into a chart.

A few things jump out from these numbers in 2016.

• Over the previous 5 election cycles Republicans added about 226 landslide counties per cycle while Democrats lost about 50 per cycle.  In 2016 Republicans added a whopping 508 and Democrats lost 39.
• In 2016, Republican landslide counties closed 75% of the population gap Democrats had after 2012.  They now trail by just 5 million people.
• The share of the overall popular vote total from Republican landslide counties surpassed that from the Democrat landslide counties for the first time.

The most stark depiction of the impact of these changes in 2016 can be seen in the second linked article from the NY Times.  Click the above link and take a look at the maps.

Since 1992, only one major area of the country had resisted the change in the overall move towards a predominance of landslide counties.  That area was the Upper Midwest including the states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. The rural areas of those states remained as non landslide areas over the last 5 election cycles.  In 2016 that changed dramatically.  Michigan and Wisconsin have gotten all the press coverage because they helped give the election to Trump, but even true blue Minnesota went rural red this election with the final spread under 2%.

CNN's election page allows you check out the totals at the county level if you are interested in more detail.

This overall change in landslide counties tells the tale of this particular election.

The next post will look at what that might mean when it comes to the Electoral College and the inevitable discussion where people claim this election "permanently remade the map".

Narrowest of margins in Presidential nail biter yields crazy scenarios

Here are some maps from RealClearPolitics.com

The first scenario is the "No Tossups" map based strictly on the current RCP polling averages in each state.  It gives Clinton the narrowest of victories.

However, if Trump flips just New Hampshire, he wins.  The RCP average currenlty has Clinton up by .8% in NH - well within the margin of error.

There are also at least 2 believable scenarios that result in Electoral College ties.

If Trump wins New Hampshire but loses Maine's 2nd Congressional District electoral vote, it's a tie.  Trump is up by just .5% in ME CD2.  That's even closer than NH.

A less likely tie scenario is the "No Tossups" map but swap who wins Nevada and Colorado.  That also gets each candidate 269 Electoral College delegates.

If a tie scenario was to occur, then the US Congress decides the election with each state getting one vote based on how the Congressional delegation within the state votes internally.  The number of Red states gives the advantage to Trump.  However, if there are some "Never Trump" Republicans in some of these low population Red states with small bi-partisan Congressional delegations, they could conceivably give it to Clinton.

Making a Clinton victory under this crazy scenario even crazier, the Senate would elect the Vice President.  With Republicans having the majority there with each Senator having a vote. It would be a real possibility of Pence being the VP.

Clinton and Pence, now that would be something.

#NCGA: Jeter ahead in squeaker for NC-92 House seat

In preliminary totals, NC House Rep Charles Jeter leads challenger Tom Davis by a mere 28 votes after election day.   That's 3719 votes for Jeter to 3691 for Davis, or 50.19% to 49.81%

Per Tom Davis Wednesday morning, they are still waiting on provisional and final absentee totals, so things could possibly change one way or the other with a recount.

Taking a look at the precinct level maps from election day shows a good picture of how this race unfolded.

2016 Primary Election
Jeter shown in Red.  Davis shown in Tan.

Davis rolled up big victories in Huntersville precincts in the north end of the district - winning those precincts by double digit percentages.  However, Jeter overcame that by winning the southern end of the district.

Davis was running as an anti-toll candidate which clearly resonated in the northern precincts that will be impacted by the I77 HOT lanes project.  His margin of victory there becomes even more stark when one considers this was Jeter's home turf as a former Huntersville Commissioner.

Interestingly, this is almost the exact opposite of the precinct level results from the first Jeter vs Davis contest back in the 2012 primary. In that race Jeter ran up huge totals in Huntersville and Davis won the southern end of the district.   See below.

2012 Primary Election
Jeter shown in light green.  Davis shown in dark green.

In 2016, Jeter actually saw his raw vote total fall in 3 of 5 Huntersville precincts when compared to 2012.  This happened even while overall turnout across the district was up significantly.  That does not bode well for Jeter's general election hopes if he is ultimately declared the winner of this year's close primary.

The below map shows the precinct outcomes from the 2012 general election.  That's a good comparison because it was also a presidential election year.

2012 General Election
Jeter shown in Red, Bradford shown in blue.

The precincts Jeter won on Tuesday almost match exactly the ones he lost during the 2012 general election.  Combine that with what would appear to be lower popularity in his home precincts, and that's not a good recipe for success in one of the few partisanly competitive districts in the state.

Bonus Observation:  As close as this contest was on Tuesday, it was not the closest legislative primary for the NC House.  That honor went to the Democratic Primary for NC House 103 between Rochelle Rivas and Noah Lieberman.  In that race Rivas leads by just 10 votes, 3235 to 3225.

I-77 dominates local elections...again!

This article first appeared in the Herald Weekly at HuntersvilleHerald.com

It seems like it was just yesterday that anti-toll activists were basking in the glory of victories at the ballot box, but that was actually four whole months ago. A lot can happen in that amount of time, and when it comes to the controversy surrounding the plan for High Occupancy Toll (HOT) Lanes on I77, a lot certainly has – not all of it good.

In the subsequent months, the WidenI77.org lawsuit was heard with the end result being the courts failing to provide an injunction, the NCDOT inspector general issued a report effectively saying “move along, there’s nothing for you to see here” when it comes to the legal troubles of the I77 contractor (Cintra) and its parent company (Ferrovial) in Spain, and construction has continued with the clearcutting of trees in the road’s median – providing a daily reminder the project is still moving forward.

In the face these setbacks, one might get the impression the last round of local elections may represent something of a high water mark for the effort to stop tolls from coming to the Lake Norman region. However, if that’s the case activists opposing the project must not have gotten the memo. They have kept up the pressure on local electeds and kept the issue at the top of the local political agenda.

In response, incumbent politicians who were previously all but silent on opposing the tolls have come out of the woodwork to champion their defeat.

NC House 92 Representative, Charles Jeter of Huntersville, announced immediately after the November election that he would be asking for a House Select Committee to be formed to look at the issue. What has happened with that committee? Well, a committee was formed, but instead of it being focused on I77, it’s a committee to look at all sorts of strategic transportation issues - from ports to mass transit to yes, toll roads. To date this committee has done nothing to directly impact the I77 project.

NC Senate 44 Senator, David Curtis of Denver, has also made an aggressive 180 when it comes to tolls. As recently as last spring, he was in the “it’s a done deal” camp – buying into NCDOT’s threat of a $100 million penalty if the state cancelled the contract. Days after the November election he told the Charlotte Observer he no longer thought that was the case and was part of a group of lawmakers asking Governor McCrory to void the contract.

Even Attorney General Roy Cooper has gotten in on the act. Cooper, whose office reviewed the contract with Cintra before it was signed, gave no strong indications of where he stood until recently. Now, at every opportunity Cooper is saying the contract never would have been signed if he was governor.

What do all of these elected officials have in common? They’re all facing stiff election challenges this cycle.

Jeter and Curtis are involved in primaries against fellow Republicans where the toll issue the driving issue in their respective races. Jeter faces a rematch of his 2012 contest against Tom Davis of Charlotte. Davis even goes as far a to mention the toll issue on his campaign signs.

Curtis also faces a rematch against a former 2012 electoral foe, Chris Carney of Mooresville. The sharpest barbs of that current campaign have revolved around the toll issue.

As for Cooper, his big day will have to wait until November when he’s the odds on favorite to face Pat McCrory. That race is expected to be very close and any inroads he makes in the solidly Republican Lake Norman are could be a real difference maker. Cooper no doubt sees the enthusiasm here locally for Mooresville’s Robert Brawley who is challenging McCrory in the Republican primary on an anti-toll message and would like nothing more than to piggyback on that in the fall if McCrory escapes the primary victorious.

Rather than seeing Jeter, Curtis and Cooper opposing the idea of tolls now, wouldn’t it have been nice to have seen them actually fighting the toll back when the public really needed their support – before the contract was signed?!?!

Something to remember when heading to the polls this coming Tuesday.

Anti-toll activism election opportunity

Anti-toll activists have posted an interesting opportunity prior to next Tuesday's primary elections.  It's a good ol' fashioned flyer handout.

If you want to help hand out flyers, head over to Signup Genius and take a neighborhood.  There are options for all 4 Lake Norman area towns.

It will be a great way to enjoy the weather, do a little civic duty, and fight the tolls!!!

I77 Toll Issue finally makes appearance in looming NC Governor's race

Well, it didn't take long for the political ramifications of last week's shellacking of toll road supporting politicians to make an impact on the upcoming 2016 NC Governor's race.

From Tuesday's CharlotteObserver.com story by Jim Morrill.

"I asked North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper about the tolls when he came to Charlotte on Tuesday. A Democrat running for governor, he said a statewide bond referendum offered “the perfect opportunity” to include money to widen I-77.

McCrory proposed a road bond measure, though it didn’t include money for I-77. But when the General Assembly put a $2 billion bond package on next year’s ballot, no road projects were in it.

“Strong governors can get things like that done,” Cooper said.

So expect the toll issue to continue to fester, at least as long as an I-77 traffic jam.
 “It’s going to be a huge thing in the governor’s race,” Phillips says. “If they don’t do something to stop this thing, I’d sure hate to be running for their office.”" So, how should McCrory respond?  He has a golden opportunity with the upcoming "summit" called by Rep Charles Jeter to turn this thing into a political positive for himself, but he has to take bold action. McCrory could show up in person at the summit, declare the State will cancel the contract based on the information handed to him personally by Diane Gilroy outlining the legal issues of the firms involved in the project.  We told you about that here.  The letter gives the Governor the political cover he needs to blow away one of the main reasons toll supporting politicians have been hiding behind,  That "reason" is other companies won't want to deal with NC on P3 contracts if the state walks away without cause.  Gilroy's letter gives the state "cause". McCrory should go on to demand the state fight any legal challenges from Ferrovial/Cintra/I77 Mobility to levy any penalties for canceling the contract.  IF the contract is invalid due to the points in Gilroy's letter, the State owes nothing! Finally, he could score a few cheap political points by throwing this back at Roy Cooper and saying the AG's office should have done a better job assisting NCDOT in vetting the application by Cintra. With Mecklenburg County having nearly 10% of the registered Republicans in the state, Governor McCrory will lose in 2016 if he loses a considerable portion of voters in this key county, his home county. The Governor should think long and hard about what his next step will be.

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article44176308.html#storylink=c