Republican bastion of North Mecklenburg headed to new Democrat NC12?

Legislators in Raleigh faced with having to redraw two of the state's Congressional districts due to a Federal court order, appear to have taken a more extreme approach than many would have expected.

For voters here in North Mecklenburg that would include a big move from the current NC9 to the vastly reconfigured NC12.

Voters in Davidson may remember being part of the old NC12 that snaked its way from Charlotte along I85 up to Greensboro.  Prior to the last round of redistricting that also included picking off Davidson along the way.

In decades past that may have made some sense to include it in the old strongly Democratic 12th, due to Davidson's reputation as a liberal college town.  However, by 2010 that had changed somewhat.  Davidson, like the rest of North Meck has more Republicans than Democrats.  Independents outnumber both parties.  See here for more on that from back in 2012.

Cornelius and Huntersville were in the old 9th, long represented by Republican Sue Myrick.

With the proposed map pictured above, all that history goes out the window.

The old gerrymandered 12th becomes a compact and more sensible district completely within Mecklenburg County - including all of North Mecklenburg.  The 9th District, now includes just the southeast part of Mecklenburg and a number of counties along the South Carolina border.  It will be a much more closely contested district than the current NC9.

The newly proposed 12th is one of three heavily Democratic districts in the state - meaning many North Meck voters accustomed to having a House Republican representing them in Washington, DC will almost certainly have a Charlotte Democrat in that spot.

Another quirk of this new map is that neither Republican vying for the current NC9 nomination will live in the new NC12.  Rouco is in Mooresville and Pittenger is in the new 9th.  Also, Alma Adams who represents the current 12th district won't live in the new 12th district.

What this means is that unless the NCGA reopens filing to allow for new candidates to enter the race, the 12th is unlikely to to be represented by someone who lives in the district - a situation which is actually allowed at the Federal level.

The proposed new map throws much of the state into disarray with some equally strange circumstances going on in other districts.

One has to almost wonder if the NCGA did this on purpose to make it difficult for the Feds to approve it and put pressure on the US Supreme Court to let the old districts stand...at least for this election.

Why the Pittenger FBI investigation matters...

It is not yet clear how the current investigation into NC-9 Congressman Robert Pittenger’s family company got started.  Was it a partisan effort, a disgruntled investor, a whistleblower of some sort?  To a certain degree the answer to that does not really matter.

What has mattered to voters of North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District is that the money behind the Congressman has had a very direct impact on how the last two election cycles have gone.

When Pittenger ran for Congress in 2012, he was one of the wealthiest potential members on the ballot in the country.  According to data from RollCall.com, Pittenger’s net worth was pegged at $27.68 million prior to winning election in 2012.   That would have put him solidly in the top 20 of all members of Congress, both the House and Senate.

After his election, when ethics rules around “fiduciary” professions kicked-in and Pittenger sold his interest in the family land business to his wife, Pittenger's wealth dropped dramatically to “only” $6.86 million.  Over night, he’s “only”the 55th wealthiest member of Congress according to the 2013 numbers at Roll Call.

Here's the thing.  It doesn't matter whether one buys into the idea that Pittenger followed the strict letter of the law according to the ethics rules by simply reclassifying who has his wealth – though it does raise eyebrows that he has repeatedly refused to release the agreement with the House Ethics Committee.

What matters locally is that his wealth has played a very direct role in his initial election in 2012 and his reelection in 2014.

In 2012 Pittenger was one of the top self-funders to run for Congress.  He poured over $2.3 million of his own money into his primary and general election campaigns.  Not only did he spend astronomically from his own coffers, most of that money was actually given to his campaign.  It is not uncommon for wealthy candidates to spend their own money, but more often than not they are loaning their campaigns money.  Pittenger gave his campaign nearly $1.7 million.

The difference may sound subtle, but the underlying message to opponents is “I am willing to spend whatever it takes to win, and I really mean it.  Give up!”

In 2012 nobody gave up, but the money did have an impact.  Pittenger ultimately overwhelmed all of his primary opponents with his ability to advertise.  It is also easy to argue that it pulled out the general election for him against Democrat Jennifer Roberts.  Roberts actually won Mecklenburg country where she was well known from her days on the County Commission, but Pittenger won every single precinct in Iredell and Union counties.  Yes, those are heavily Republican areas, but the money advantage sure didn't hurt.


In 2014 after proving money was no object, Pittenger had only nominal opposition in the primary and ran unopposed in the general election.

If it turns out that there is something to this investigation and the money that has backed the Congressman’s campaigns is somehow tainted, it won't just be his finances and reputation that takes a hit.

Voters’ choices at the ballot box for two election cycles will have been impacted when that situation never really should have occurred.

Bonus Observation:  A  story over at TheDailyHaymaker.com says the trial balloons are already floating for a possible replacement/primary challenger.  Things could be about to get interesting

This story first appeared in the Herald Weekly at HuntersvilleHerald.com

NC-9 Republicans Meet in Cornelius...Unity a Common Theme

Republicans in North Carolina's Ninth Congressional District met in Cornelius on Saturday for a convention to elect a new slate of leaders for the congressional level of organization within the party.  The event brought numerous politicians to Cornelius Town Hall including Congressman Robert Pittenger, NC Speaker of the House Thom Tillis as well as Representative Charles Jeter of Huntersville and Senator Jeff Tarte of Cornelius among others.  About 100 of the party faithful were in attendance.

There was some speculation that there would be fireworks surrounding the ongoing intra-party tensions around the I-77 HOT lanes supported by most Republican elected officials.  When it came time for nominations for officers, Convention Chairman, Billy Miller, paused extra long to see if there were any additional nominations beyond the existing slate - even making a joke that he thought there might be.  However, in the end the elections for offices was not contested and John Steward of Union County and Davidson's Linda Angele maintained their positions as Chairman and Vice-Chair respectively.   It was a good show of unity within the party.

That unity was a culmination of a theme hit on by most of the speakers throughout the morning.

Speaker Tillis first hit on the topic, highlighting "The Eleventh Commandment" made popular by Ronald Reagan..."thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican".  He also paraphrased another quote commonly attributed to Reagan.."the person who agrees with you 80 percent of the time is a friend and an ally."

Claude Pope, campaigning for NCGOP Chairman, said "for party unity we have to teach the losers how to support the winners, rather than taking their ball and going home."

Finally, John Steward, in his brief acceptance speech as NC 9 Chairman said that Republicans can't win without the Tea Party, the Tea Party can't win without the establishment Republicans, and that the Libertarians can't win on their own.  A statement that highlights the need for all the facets of the conservative cause to work together for a common purpose to be successful.

To a degree, they are obviously all correct.

However, for that unity to occur all sides must feel that they are being dealt with fairly, and far too often things occur during campaigns and during contentious issues to undermine that sense of fairness.  Whether it be perceived meddling in primaries, or how contentious issues are handled, to put all of Saturday's words into real action will require much more than saying "can't we all just get along?"

Canary in the coal mine in NC-9?

During the Republican Primary for NC-9, hardly a week went by without getting a mailer from the Pittenger Campaign - most of them negative.  Saturday, saw the arrival of the first Pittenger mailer in my mailbox for the General Election.  After spending more of his own money than all but one other candidate in the country I was surprised that it took that long.  Unfortunately, I wasn't surprised that it was another negative add.  While not the offensive "negative" of the primary, this was more the expected "negative" of partisan differentiation.  The piece was about Jennifer Roberts supporting higher energy taxes.

That type of partisan differentiation would seem to make more of a difference if you are concerned about the seat going Democratic and handing the gavel back to Nancy Pelosi, but few are worried about that anymore.  See  "House elections spell a Republican story and victory". That kind of red meat tax issue is the kind of thing you use to get people to vote against someone.  But in a district where you have such a registration advantage, there should be no need to really press that issue.  All you need for victory is for your people to vote for you.

I've got to wonder, why wait until now and why go negative again?  There should be no real contest in this race - right?  At this late date, does the Pittenger Campaign really sense they need to give their people a reason to pull the lever for them?

After a week of early voting, is this mailer a canary in the coal mine for NC-9?

Update: The last paragraph of this story points out a similar dynamic in the Presidential race.  The Two Polls That Have Chicago Terrified - NationalReviewOnline

Breaking Down the Roberts Campaign Poll on NC-9

The Jennifer Roberts Campaign released a poll last week that shows this race to be much closer than conventional wisdom predicts.  The published results show the race at Pittenger(R) 38%, Roberts(D) 37%, Campbell(L) 3%, and a whopping 22% still undecided.

Very little polling data is available in the typical Congressional House race, so when anything is made public it warrants taking a look.  At the same time, any data released by a campaign should be taken with a wheelbarrow full of salt.

There are three basic possibilities with a poll like this:

1. It's a legitimate poll based on reasonable assumptions.

     2.  It's a manipulated poll to get the desired result.

     3.  The campaign just made up the numbers.

Is Pittenger in Trouble in NC-9?

Today, I did a little precinct walking in a heavily Republican precint, and one thing seemed rather clear to me.   Robert Pittenger's hyper-negative primary campaign against Jim Pendergraph may very well come back to haunt him. If the totally unscientific results from the many conversationss I had this afternoon hold anywhere close to the actual results, Pittenger's primary victory could turn out to be of the pyrrhic variety.

For many NC-9 runoff reduced to this...

The below comments from the Observer article on the Monday's NC-9 debate paint a stark picture on how many unfortunately see the choices in this runoff.  All three posters are regulars and conservative standard bearers on the Observer message boards.

I myself am leaning towards Pendergraph, but not because I think he's the best candidate.  I don't.  However, giving Pittenger the power of incumbency in addition to the power of his personal wealth is too scary a proposition to simply sit this one out.

It's hard to believe that what should have been an easy election has come to this, but here we are.

From Accusations fly in feisty debate for 9th District

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/07/10/3372040/pendergraph-pittenger-spar-in.html#storylink=cpy

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/07/10/3372040/pendergraph-pittenger-spar-in.html#storylink=cp

No Rest for the Wicked...More Negative Adds in NC-09

Yesterday and today the blizzard of negative paper for NC-09 continued.  I guess the polls must have made it clear a run-off was inevitable. 

This time the attacks on Jim Pendergraph come from a group called "Citizens for Conservative Leadership, Inc" which sent out similar attacks earlier in the campaign.  The PAC was formed just this past March and all of its expenditures have been in the NC-09 race.

This one completely crosses any lines of common decency - using an image of a cowering child to hammer home it's message. 

Now that there are only two candidates in this race, Robert Pittenger should renounce these adds and this support since there's no mistaking that these benefit only him. 

We "should" hear a denunciation of these by Pittenger.  What we will hear instead is crickets.

Do Candidates Matter Or Just Money? Answer...

The answer appears to be money...

Robert Pittenger spent more personal money on his primary campaign than just about anyone in the country, and it appears to have paid off for him.

From NC State Board of Elections Site

Pendergraph Electability Takes Hit

What a difference a few hours makes.

The last post outlining some possible electability issues went out yesterday at 2pm and by 630pm the Observer had yanked Jim Pendergraph's endorsement, throwing his electability in November into question.  See "2 better choices in 9th Congressional District"

Again, I know most people will be incredulous at that suggestion, but here's how this will play out.

Do Candidates Matter Or Just Money?

Last Friday's post generated some interesting discussion.

The premise was this. If NC-9 Republicans pick the wrong candidate, they could set this race up to be closer than it needs to be in November. That was readily dismissed by many in favor of the establishment candidates in the race. On Twitter it was suggested I must be a wild-eyed Libertarian for thinking this race could be close in November. (No offense intended to actual Libertarians.)

Since this is a Federal election, "establishment" candidates here simply means those candidates on the RNC's Young Guns list - Pittenger, Pendergraph, and Barry. In my opinion these "establishment" candidates could just as easily cause this situation to occur. However, since they bring the most money to the table, this possibility is being overlooked.

NC-9 Congressional: The Case for Killian

I started this blog to support conservative candidates and push for conservative principles.  If I did not think Ric Killian was the hands down best choice in this race, I would not have written this piece. 

If you step back and take an objective look at the maelstrom that has become the Republican primary for NC-9, it's hard to not think "what a mess!"  The primary for this relatively safe Republican seat has been reduced to negative bickering and name calling between some candidates, while several others proceed with chances that are slim to none of even getting to a run-off.  How this mess is resolved is important.  I say this is a relatively safe seat because if the wrong candidate is chosen it could actually put this seat in play this November.

Throughout all of this, one candidate has remained poised and refused to get down in the muck.  That candidate is Colonel Ric Killian - the State Legislator for District 105 in South Charlotte.  When you compare him and his record to the other candidates as well as think about the campaign this fall, I find it hard to see how he is not the best name to represent the Republicans against Jennifer Roberts.

Charlotte Chamber NC-9 Debate

If you've missed the debates so far in the NC-9 race, here's a video of Thursday's Charlotte Chamber event.

There will also be more debates coming up if you want to catch the candidates live.  See The Morning Line on NC-9 for more details.

Also see the follow-up coverage from the Iredell GOP/Stand Up NC debate here.

Bonus Observation:  The negative campaigning by the Pittenger camp seems to be taking it's toll - on Pittenger.  The Twitterverse is starting to show signs that people are getting frustrated with it - as they should.

NC-9 Debate...Post Mortem

When going to political events, always sit in the back.  That's my rule.

The back row is where the reporters hang out.  It gives you the best seat in the house to watch the audience, and let's face it - it's the audience's reactions that really matter at these things.  In fact, you learn as much by watching the audience as you do the candidates.

So, before tonight's show started, I asked the TV reporter standing next to me if he thought there were going to be any fireworks.  His response? "They always say there will be, but there never are."  I'd say he was only part right.  There weren't any 4th of July boomers, but some candidates definitely stepped on a few firecrackers.

Here are a few of the highlights...

The Morning Line on NC-9

The coming weeks in the NC-9 Congressional horse race will see lots of jockeying for position.  As candidates enter the homestretch in these final 3 weeks before the primary on May 8th, there are several upcoming events people can attend to learn more.  Two of the biggest will be debates in Iredell and Mecklenburg Counties.  Check the below Facebook links for the details.

4/17 - Iredell County Republican Party 9th District Congressional Debate
4/24 - MeckYR 9th District Congressional Debate

Pointing out the "best conservative" appears to make the less conservative nervous

In Monday's post, "NRCC: 'On the Radar' But Off Target on NC-9", I clearly pointed out why I think Ric Killian is the best conservative in the NC-9 race.  It did not take long for the responses to come in.  Apparently, pointing out who is the "best" choice makes people nervous.  I imagine that to be the case when the only replies generated were based on misdirection and incomplete information.

It was an interesting day.

NRCC: "On the Radar" But Off Target on NC-9

The National Republican Congressional Committee has just released their updated list of "On the Radar" candidates in their "Young Guns" program.  Three of the eleven candidates in the Republican primary for NC-9 made the list.

To me, the NRCC appears more interested in playing it safe by supporting candidates who will have across-the-aisle appeal to Democrats  or who can self-fund, rather than picking candidates with the strongest conservative resume.  Both the Rothenberg and Cook political analysis sites show NC-9 as a strong Republican seat with Rothenberg rating it safe Republican and Cook showing the seat with a strong Republican tilt.  With those characteristics, we should be trying to get the best conservative elected and not just any Republican. 

That "best conservative" is Ric Killian - the current State Representative for NC-105 in South Charlotte.

Stand Up NC Hosts Vince Coakley to Standing Room Only Crowd

Steve Bennett Kicks Off the Evening

The Charles Mack Center in Mooresville was packed tonight with conservative voters and candidates coming out to see special guest Vince Coakley from WBT Radio.

By the end of the evening a standing room only crowd of nearly 150 was in attendance.  After roughly 20 minutes of opening remarks, Coakley began taking questions.   Energy was still high and the questions were flowing over 90 minutes into the evening.

Rep Myrick's hand-picked successor? I think I'll make my own choice.

Coming as a surprise to nobody, Republican Sue Myrick endorsed Jim Pendergraph as her hand picked successor Monday - following that up quickly with an email blast seeking fundraising support for the former Democrat running in the heavily Republican and newly re-drawn NC-9 Congressional District.

Davidson Moves to New Congressional Home - Says Goodbye to NC-12

This year Davidson moves to its new congressional district after the redistricting effort last year in the state legislature based on the 2010 Census.  What does this mean for the average Davidson voter? Well if you are one of the growing number of Republican or conservative independent voters in town it means you'll likely be able to elect a candidate to your liking for the first time in a long time.  (See new map at right from ncleg.net., old map below from nationalatlas.gov)