Republican Reboot - 8 Year Countdown

Republicans will say it was the media. They will say it was Hurricane Sandy. They will say Romney was too liberal or that he was too conservative. Some will blame the Establishment. Some will blame the Tea Party. All of that is true, and none of that is true.

Few will accept that the world changed in Election 2012, that the political ground shifted in a way that requires a fundamental reevaluation of the overall approach for conservatives - a transformation.  However if we don't accept that, then we better get used to more nights like this past election night.

Does that sound too radical? Does that sound like panic? If so, then look at the Senate races that were lost and come to a different conclusion. Akin and Mourdock (Tea Party), Allen and Thompson (Establishment), Brown (the ultimate moderate), Mandel (a conservative statewide elected official). All could have won in their respective Senate races. All lost. They only had one thing in common, the R behind their name.

The Republican brand has a problem.  That problem is deep, and it is complex.

But what about our very own state of North Carolina you may be asking? That proves that Republicans can win and win big.  Doesn't it?

Here's the irony of that.  As much as Establishment Republicans may want to think otherwise, the party won in North Carolina this year primarily because of the Tea Party tsunami two years ago.  That and the fact that Pat McCrory was running a 4-year campaign flush with cash against one of the most unpopular governors in the country.  The Legislative and Congressional victories were primarily a result of last year's redistricting.  Democrats actually received many more total votes in the combined Congressional races than Republicans.  They won three seats in overwhelming landslides skewing the results for several of the others. However, in other statewide races the Democrats still locked down most of the Council of State with the only other partisan statewide race, Lieutenant Governor, still locked in a recount.  It's hard to say Republicans won a landslide popularity contest in the state when redistricting is taken out of the equation.

Eight short years from now, we redistrict again.

The question is will Republicans recognize what needs to be done prior to that.

What doomed Republicans on election night? Demographics and Mechanics

"Something is off. These numbers can't be right!"

Those must have been words bouncing around the heads of Karl Rove and Michael Barone on election night. Just day's before the election they predicted a solid Romney victory based on the "numbers".  Those words or something like them were definitely being spoken by the Romney campaign as they watched the night unfold. "Shellshocked" was the word reported by CBSNews.com.

Others in the prediction game got it right.  Nate Silver of the NYTimes 538 blog and Josh Putnam  of our very own Davidson College had been predicting the eventual outcome correctly for months.

They were all looking at the same data, but they had come to distinctly different answers as to what it meant.  How did that happen?  How can very smart people on both sides come to such different conclusions?  The answer is in their different assumptions about the "fundamentals" at work in this election.

Republicans believed the fundamentals at work were the traditional ones.  High unemployment, a sluggish economy, and massive deficits were the primary issues.  Romney-Ryan was the dream team to address them.  Obama's newness had worn off.  He was no longer the rockstar of 2008.  Romney had the greater momentum.  It showed in the his large crowds while Obama sometimes struggled to fill smaller venues.  Republicans also had a better machine this time around after being caught by surprise in 2008 by the Obama Campaign's high-tech approach.  They had evened the playing field enough.

Those were reasonable assumptions.  Were being the operative word - as in past tense. 

Democrats believed the primary fundamental at work was demographics.  Specifically, the changing demographics of the United States.

The Democrats were right.

Just as importantly, they built an even better machine to exploit that assumption.

Demographics and Mechanics made for a lethal combination.

It's a combination that Republicans must address, and the clock is ticking.  The only question is will we run out of time.

UPDATE: From last week Breitbart.com, no better explanation of why Republican's lost the Mechanics of this race.  As an Information Technology professional for almost 20 years, I can say with confidence that "haribrained scheme" is a polite description of what they were trying to do.  (More on mechanics in a later post.)

Exclusive - Inside Orca: How the Romney Campaign Suppressed Its Own Vote

Will Davidson Turn Wildcat Red on Tuesday?

Cornelius Town Hall Early Voting, Sat 11/3.

The early vote stats for 2012 in Davidson are in the books, and at this point it appears to be a Republican advantage when compared to the basically even early vote contest in 2008.

As of the Friday before election day four years ago, Democrats cast 39 more votes than Republicans.  This year Republicans have 342 more votes in the books.  In both years Unaffiliated voters came in 3rd even though they are the largest block of registered voters.

However, what may be the biggest difference between the two cycles is the overall early voting turnout.  Over 1200 more Davidson voters have already turned out this cycle compared to 2008.  That means there are fewer votes remaining to be cast. 

If the trends continue on election day, Davidson could be an unexpected Wildcat Red this election cycle.

Related coverage...Davidson Village...Last Bastion for Democrats in the LKN Area

Early Voting Mid-Point...Who's winning NC?

The "Under the Dome" blog at the Raleigh News and Observer posted the following piece, Democrats lead early voting; Republicans think they're winning the race, which seems to say Democrats are on pace to repeat their early voting success from 2008 which put the state in President Obama's column.  During that election the Obama campaign enjoyed a 300k lead after early voting on their way to a razor thin final margin of just 14k.

This appears to be an oversimplification of what's going on so far.

Read more here: http://projects.newsobserver.com/under_the_dome/democrats_lead_early_voting_but_are_republicans_winning_the_race#storylink=cpy

With Strong Move to Romney North Carolina's Moment in the Spotlight Ends

On 10/18 North Carolina moved to the "leans Romney" category in the RealClearPolitics.com Electoral College projections effectively bringing to an end the Tarheel State's moment in the national political spotlight.   Its original "Firewall in Ruins", national attention will move elsewhere as the Obama Campaign redraws its lines of defense around more traditional Democratic Party strongholds including the union heavy states of Ohio and Nevada.  Punctuating these events, the Romney Campaign is now reportedly pulling senior campaign workers out of NC to carry the battle for the Presidency to states needing more support.

It's a rather ignominious end to a political season which started with such high hopes - one where Charlotte hosted the DNC enjoying some global attention only to have the host committee end up millions in debt and the State's ultimate impact on the election relegated to being a footnote of election history - it being the state that put the Romney-Ryan ticket into the lead in the RCP Electoral College projections for the first time.

Of course, that factoid will only be important if there is ultimately a Republican win.  Less than three weeks until we all find out.

Why the "Ryan Pick" is Important

The "Overflow" Crowd

Sunday's RomneyRyan2012 event in Mooresville showed very clearly why picking Paul Ryan (or somebody like him) was very much needed by the Romney campaign.  Thousands showed up and many of those would not have been there (myself included) if Romney had followed conventional wisdom and played it "safe".  The selection rejuvinated the race for the Presidency.  That in itself is important for a Romney campaign that can't seem to pull away from President Obama in any meaningful way - even with a lagging economy and unemployment stuck at stubbornly high rates.

For many NC-9 runoff reduced to this...

The below comments from the Observer article on the Monday's NC-9 debate paint a stark picture on how many unfortunately see the choices in this runoff.  All three posters are regulars and conservative standard bearers on the Observer message boards.

I myself am leaning towards Pendergraph, but not because I think he's the best candidate.  I don't.  However, giving Pittenger the power of incumbency in addition to the power of his personal wealth is too scary a proposition to simply sit this one out.

It's hard to believe that what should have been an easy election has come to this, but here we are.

From Accusations fly in feisty debate for 9th District

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/07/10/3372040/pendergraph-pittenger-spar-in.html#storylink=cpy

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/07/10/3372040/pendergraph-pittenger-spar-in.html#storylink=cp

No Rest for the Wicked...More Negative Adds in NC-09

Yesterday and today the blizzard of negative paper for NC-09 continued.  I guess the polls must have made it clear a run-off was inevitable. 

This time the attacks on Jim Pendergraph come from a group called "Citizens for Conservative Leadership, Inc" which sent out similar attacks earlier in the campaign.  The PAC was formed just this past March and all of its expenditures have been in the NC-09 race.

This one completely crosses any lines of common decency - using an image of a cowering child to hammer home it's message. 

Now that there are only two candidates in this race, Robert Pittenger should renounce these adds and this support since there's no mistaking that these benefit only him. 

We "should" hear a denunciation of these by Pittenger.  What we will hear instead is crickets.

Do Candidates Matter Or Just Money? Answer...

The answer appears to be money...

Robert Pittenger spent more personal money on his primary campaign than just about anyone in the country, and it appears to have paid off for him.

From NC State Board of Elections Site

Stats Heading Into Election Day

Civitas has put up a great resource to analyze vote totals across all sorts of demographics, districts, and vote types.  Heading into election day, here are links to the early voting stats for a few of the local races that may be of interest in the North Meck area.

Statewide Stats

Davidson Turnout
Cornelius Turnout
Huntersville Turnout

Republican Primary US Congress NC-9
Republican Primary NC Senate 41
Republican Primary NC House 92

(There aren't any Democratic Party primaries in North Meck legislative districts.)

Pendergraph Electability Takes Hit

What a difference a few hours makes.

The last post outlining some possible electability issues went out yesterday at 2pm and by 630pm the Observer had yanked Jim Pendergraph's endorsement, throwing his electability in November into question.  See "2 better choices in 9th Congressional District"

Again, I know most people will be incredulous at that suggestion, but here's how this will play out.

Do Candidates Matter Or Just Money?

Last Friday's post generated some interesting discussion.

The premise was this. If NC-9 Republicans pick the wrong candidate, they could set this race up to be closer than it needs to be in November. That was readily dismissed by many in favor of the establishment candidates in the race. On Twitter it was suggested I must be a wild-eyed Libertarian for thinking this race could be close in November. (No offense intended to actual Libertarians.)

Since this is a Federal election, "establishment" candidates here simply means those candidates on the RNC's Young Guns list - Pittenger, Pendergraph, and Barry. In my opinion these "establishment" candidates could just as easily cause this situation to occur. However, since they bring the most money to the table, this possibility is being overlooked.

NC Senate 41 Forum

The race for the new NC Senate 41 district took center stage at Cornelius Town Hall Tuesday evening. There were 50-75 people in attendance for what was one of the more informative debates I've seen this season. If you missed it, it will be broadcast on Mi-Connection Channel 4 by the end of Thursday - an exact time is still TBD.

Maybe the most important thing to say was this district is fortunate to have such a slate of high quality people running. I was particularly impressed with political newcomer Troy Stafford of Cornelius. While he may not have the necessary name recognition this time around, Mr Stafford certainly held his own against some experienced debaters. Robby Benton pointed out that this race has been much cleaner than some in the area, and compared to the sometimes bitter race for NC-9 that's certainly correct. Dr Copeland tried to steel the show with some good one liners. If the number of laughs was the criteria for winning the debate, he was certainly in the running.

NC Senate 41 Endorsements...Co-Worker Opinions



Cornelius Today posted a pair of dueling endorsements last week which more than anything else I've seen can be used as a proxy for who may be seen as the most "conservative" candidate in the race for NC Senate 41. See "Gilroy endorses Aneralla; Woods endorses Tarte" at the link.

What makes these endorsements more interesting than most is the fact that both endorsers work directly with one of the candidates on actual governing - serving on boards and making decisions together.  That they come to different conclusions on who will govern "best" as a NC Senator says a good bit about who will be the most conservative.

Charlotte Chamber NC-9 Debate

If you've missed the debates so far in the NC-9 race, here's a video of Thursday's Charlotte Chamber event.

There will also be more debates coming up if you want to catch the candidates live.  See The Morning Line on NC-9 for more details.

Also see the follow-up coverage from the Iredell GOP/Stand Up NC debate here.

Bonus Observation:  The negative campaigning by the Pittenger camp seems to be taking it's toll - on Pittenger.  The Twitterverse is starting to show signs that people are getting frustrated with it - as they should.

NC-9 Debate...Post Mortem

When going to political events, always sit in the back.  That's my rule.

The back row is where the reporters hang out.  It gives you the best seat in the house to watch the audience, and let's face it - it's the audience's reactions that really matter at these things.  In fact, you learn as much by watching the audience as you do the candidates.

So, before tonight's show started, I asked the TV reporter standing next to me if he thought there were going to be any fireworks.  His response? "They always say there will be, but there never are."  I'd say he was only part right.  There weren't any 4th of July boomers, but some candidates definitely stepped on a few firecrackers.

Here are a few of the highlights...

The Morning Line on NC-9

The coming weeks in the NC-9 Congressional horse race will see lots of jockeying for position.  As candidates enter the homestretch in these final 3 weeks before the primary on May 8th, there are several upcoming events people can attend to learn more.  Two of the biggest will be debates in Iredell and Mecklenburg Counties.  Check the below Facebook links for the details.

4/17 - Iredell County Republican Party 9th District Congressional Debate
4/24 - MeckYR 9th District Congressional Debate

Amendment One...Creating Unexpected Political Bedfellows

Single-issue debates and referendums can often make for unexpected (and unintended) political alliances which turn an expected result into a surprise.  The May 8th vote on Amendment One to define marriage into the North Carolina Constitution is shaping up to be just such an occassion.

If history is any guide, one would assume this amendment passes easily in the only remaining Southern state to not have such a provision in its state constitution.  If it fails, that will be due to those assumptions being wrong.

Pointing out the "best conservative" appears to make the less conservative nervous

In Monday's post, "NRCC: 'On the Radar' But Off Target on NC-9", I clearly pointed out why I think Ric Killian is the best conservative in the NC-9 race.  It did not take long for the responses to come in.  Apparently, pointing out who is the "best" choice makes people nervous.  I imagine that to be the case when the only replies generated were based on misdirection and incomplete information.

It was an interesting day.

NRCC: "On the Radar" But Off Target on NC-9

The National Republican Congressional Committee has just released their updated list of "On the Radar" candidates in their "Young Guns" program.  Three of the eleven candidates in the Republican primary for NC-9 made the list.

To me, the NRCC appears more interested in playing it safe by supporting candidates who will have across-the-aisle appeal to Democrats  or who can self-fund, rather than picking candidates with the strongest conservative resume.  Both the Rothenberg and Cook political analysis sites show NC-9 as a strong Republican seat with Rothenberg rating it safe Republican and Cook showing the seat with a strong Republican tilt.  With those characteristics, we should be trying to get the best conservative elected and not just any Republican. 

That "best conservative" is Ric Killian - the current State Representative for NC-105 in South Charlotte.