State's redistricting chickens come home to roost....

This post first appeared in the Herald Weekly at HuntersvilleHerald.com

If you are going to have a good year in politics, have it in a year that ends in a zero.

That’s an axiom Republicans in North Carolina have been benefiting from since the 2010 Tea Party fueled election and the subsequent redistricting required after the decennial census. The axiom holds true because he party in power controls the redistricting process and that’s particularly true in North Carolina where the governor plays no role in redrawing the district maps. In the Tarheel state, the process is totally controlled by the legislature.

To give a sense of how important control of this process can be, one just has to look at the maps available at Ballotpedia.org. According to this data, North Carolina has moved to the right farther and faster than any state in the country – at least when one looks at its elected officials. Just prior to the 2010 election, the state had what’s called a “trifecta” for the Democratic Party. Meaning, both houses of the legislature and the governor’s mansion were held by Democrats. After the 2010 election Republicans held both houses of the legislature. The Governor was not up for reelection that year, so the Democrats still held the executive branch.

By the end of the 2012 election cycle, things had changed dramatically. By then, NC had what Ballotpedia calls a “trifecta plus with supermajorities”. Meaning, Republicans held both houses of the legislature with veto proof super majorities, the governor’s office, and control of the state supreme court. No other state moved from a trifecta of one party to a trifecta plus with super majority of the other party in that time period.

On top of that, the state Congressional delegation moved from 7-6 favoring Democrats to 10-3 favoring the Republicans after the 2014 elections. Much of that swing has to do with who controlled drawing the maps after 2010. Or, to put it more bluntly, who controlled the gerrymandering of those maps.

Gerrymandering, or the act a drawing district maps to gain political advantage, is a fact of life in politics. Both parties do it to varying degrees. One could certainly argue the Democrats had drawn the Congressional maps going into the 2010 election to their advantage. In that election, the one where Republicans took control of the legislature at the state level, Republicans got 54% of the votes cast in the races for Congress, but walked away with just 6 of the 13 seats. After they redrew the maps for 2012, Republicans more than turned the tables and walked away with 9 of 13 seats after winning less than 49% of the popular vote. They gained 1 more seat for Congress in the 2014 election to get the current 10-3 majority in the delegation.

Is it fair? No. No it’s not. However, it is maybe the best example of the saying “elections have consequences.” Or, said another way, “he who draws the maps, wins.”

Some of those consequences are being felt here in the Lake Norman area as the fallout from the drawing of these maps reaches a crescendo heading into 2016. With Federal courts last month throwing out the maps of 2 NC Congressional Districts - including the long-time worst in the country District 12 running from Charlotte up to Greensboro - we are now facing totally new maps and a primary election day for Congress postponed until June. (Only races for Congress are impacted by this change. All other primaries will occur as planned on March 15th.)

Unless the courts intervene again, North Mecklenburg has moved from the solidly Republican old District 9 to a much more compact, but still solidly Democrat, new District 12. Voters used to having a Republican represent them in Washington will almost certainly have a Charlotte Democrat in that role.

Meanwhile, voters in South Iredell will move from the 9th to the new 13th District. They face a free for all primary on the Republican side with numerous candidates vying for what has suddenly become an open seat leaning solidly Republican.

Are you confused yet? Yes, democracy is messy, but this is really getting ridiculous.

Republican bastion of North Mecklenburg headed to new Democrat NC12?

Legislators in Raleigh faced with having to redraw two of the state's Congressional districts due to a Federal court order, appear to have taken a more extreme approach than many would have expected.

For voters here in North Mecklenburg that would include a big move from the current NC9 to the vastly reconfigured NC12.

Voters in Davidson may remember being part of the old NC12 that snaked its way from Charlotte along I85 up to Greensboro.  Prior to the last round of redistricting that also included picking off Davidson along the way.

In decades past that may have made some sense to include it in the old strongly Democratic 12th, due to Davidson's reputation as a liberal college town.  However, by 2010 that had changed somewhat.  Davidson, like the rest of North Meck has more Republicans than Democrats.  Independents outnumber both parties.  See here for more on that from back in 2012.

Cornelius and Huntersville were in the old 9th, long represented by Republican Sue Myrick.

With the proposed map pictured above, all that history goes out the window.

The old gerrymandered 12th becomes a compact and more sensible district completely within Mecklenburg County - including all of North Mecklenburg.  The 9th District, now includes just the southeast part of Mecklenburg and a number of counties along the South Carolina border.  It will be a much more closely contested district than the current NC9.

The newly proposed 12th is one of three heavily Democratic districts in the state - meaning many North Meck voters accustomed to having a House Republican representing them in Washington, DC will almost certainly have a Charlotte Democrat in that spot.

Another quirk of this new map is that neither Republican vying for the current NC9 nomination will live in the new NC12.  Rouco is in Mooresville and Pittenger is in the new 9th.  Also, Alma Adams who represents the current 12th district won't live in the new 12th district.

What this means is that unless the NCGA reopens filing to allow for new candidates to enter the race, the 12th is unlikely to to be represented by someone who lives in the district - a situation which is actually allowed at the Federal level.

The proposed new map throws much of the state into disarray with some equally strange circumstances going on in other districts.

One has to almost wonder if the NCGA did this on purpose to make it difficult for the Feds to approve it and put pressure on the US Supreme Court to let the old districts stand...at least for this election.

NC-9 Roundup

Seen today at Don Reid's weekly Thursday breakfast - Andy Dulin and Mike Steinberg.  This conservative meetup has been going on for many years and is worth a look if you are in South Charlotte early on a Thursday.  The questions are tough but fair as Councilman Dulin found out this morning, but the group is always welcoming.  During election season, stop by the Skyland Family Restaurant on South Blvd and meet some candidates. 

Heard today that the Robert Pittenger campaign is running some phone polls.  If you happen to have received one, drop me a comment.  I'd be interested in hearing what you thought of it.

And most importantly...

State Representative and Army Reserve Colonel Ric Killian returned safely from his tour of duty in Afghanistan Thursday afternoon.  Rep Killian came in a solid number 2 during the Meck GOP straw poll conducted a couple weeks ago - without being able to campaign in person.  The Killian family has been busy carrying the campaign load while he has been on active duty, and Ric's return to the campaign trail will certainly shake things up as he adds his conservative voice to the discussion.

UPDATE: Ric Killian back from Afghanistan, turns to Congressional campaign  -CharlotteObserver.com

Stand Up NC Hosts Vince Coakley to Standing Room Only Crowd

Steve Bennett Kicks Off the Evening

The Charles Mack Center in Mooresville was packed tonight with conservative voters and candidates coming out to see special guest Vince Coakley from WBT Radio.

By the end of the evening a standing room only crowd of nearly 150 was in attendance.  After roughly 20 minutes of opening remarks, Coakley began taking questions.   Energy was still high and the questions were flowing over 90 minutes into the evening.

Davidson Moves to New Congressional Home - Says Goodbye to NC-12

This year Davidson moves to its new congressional district after the redistricting effort last year in the state legislature based on the 2010 Census.  What does this mean for the average Davidson voter? Well if you are one of the growing number of Republican or conservative independent voters in town it means you'll likely be able to elect a candidate to your liking for the first time in a long time.  (See new map at right from ncleg.net., old map below from nationalatlas.gov)