I77 continues to stir the pot for local politicos

In the ongoing fallout of this month's election, Local politicos have continued to spin, react, position, and use the I77 HOT lanes issue to varying degrees of effectiveness.

In a press release last Monday where his pending toll road education trip to Texas along with Davidson Mayor John Woods was revealed, Cornelius Mayor Chuck Travis chose to take the "whistling past the graveyard" approach.  Considering what happened to his fellow pro-toller, Mayor Jill Swain in Huntersville, it seemed a bit tone deaf for Travis to say...

"First and foremost, I want to thank the residents of Cornelius for the vote of confidence to serve as the Mayor of our wonderful Town. On election day, even though I was unopposed, I received the highest number of votes of any candidate running for office in our Town. I appreciate the trust that you have placed in me to lead our Town for the next two years. I take the role of Mayor seriously and respect the responsibility to hold this office."

While the bubble was burst regarding the vote totals in the unopposed Davidson and Cornelius Mayoral races in this piece last week.  Cornelius Commissioner Dave Gilroy's said it more directly in his most recent newsletter in Sunday.

"Note to Davidson’s Mayor John Woods and Cornelius’s Mayor Chuck Travis who are both lovely gentlemen, but have been hand-in-hand for years with Swaine in supporting I-77 Tolls (which the Lake Norman Chamber of Commerce recently stated would cause “irreparable damage to our region”). With no doubt whatsoever, both Woods and Travis would have similarly gone down in flames had they faced any viable opposition."

Then there is State Rep Charles Jeter.  Though, in Jeter's case, rather than his own statements, he was on the receiving end of multiple ads on the subject of the HOT lanes - ads that came from two completely different directions.

The first ad appearing in local papers said Jeter is the one with the power to stop the tolls...

The second appeared on a billboard along 77 saying Jeter is the one to blame for putting them in place...

In the aftermath of Monday's "summit" where the State once again kicked the can back to CRTPO and with candidate filing for the NCGA set to open December-1, we can likely expect the hard hitting comments on tolls to keep coming.

The topic was an effective one in our recent municipal elections and will likely be in the forefront for many elections to come.

Cornelius and Davidson had elections, too!

With all of the attention given to the election results in Huntersville, it might be tempting to forget that all of the local municipalities had elections two weeks ago.  Not much has been said about the elections in Cornelius and Davidson, but voters there also trekked to the polls earlier this month.

Last week, some more detailed numbers were available from the Mecklenburg Board of Elections that  are worth a look.

As one might expect Huntersville had the largest number of voters heading to the polls.  With competitive races and by far the largest population, that is not surprising.  However, when it comes to turnout rate, that top “honor” goes to Davidson.

14.61% of Davidsonians headed to the polls, followed by 13.93% of Huntersville’s registered voters, with only 13.25% of Cornelius’s voters making it out.  While saying the “honor” goes to Davidson for the highest turnout is true, that needs to be said with some serious air quotes around it.  It is a pretty sad state of affairs when all three towns had less than 15% turnout.

A closer looks at the numbers in the Mayoral races also revealed some interesting tidbits.

By now most people are aware if how lopsided the contested race in Huntersville turned out to be.  But what may surprise people are a couple of things that occurred in the uncontested races in Cornelius and Davidson.

At first glance both contests had margins of victory for the incumbents reminiscent of what you might see in Castro’s Cuba or the Kim Dynasty in North Korea.  Chuck Travis won in Cornelius with 93.9% and John Woods won in Davidson with 87.9%.

Write in candidates got a cumulative 6.1% and 12.1% respectively in the two towns which actually seems a bit high – particularly for Davidson.  However, after looking at the turnout data provided by the Board of Elections, it is clear there was a significant protest vote beyond even just the write-ins.

in North Carolina only votes where a candidate is actually selected actually end up being  counted – meaning if a ballot is left blank for a given race, that ballot is not counted in the total winning percentage.  These ballots are considered “spoiled” for this given race where they are left blank.  Not counting these ballots, makes the actual winning percentage look artificially high versus the overall total of voters who went to the polls.

So, what were the actual winning percentages when these “spoiled” ballots are included?

In Cornelius, Mayor Travis got 74.20% of actual ballots cast.  In Davidson, Mayor Woods got a little less, coming in at 72.66%.  In fact in PCT 127 on Davidson’s east side, Woods actually slipped below 70% with only 69.6% pulling the lever for him.

So, what does it mean when more that 25% of voters won’t cast a vote for the only name available on the ballot?

An inquiry with the UNC School of Government did not turn up any academic research on the subject of “protest votes”, but a quick comparison to Huntersville sheds some light on it.  In Huntersville where people had two choices and both candidates were reasonable options, the overall protest vote was just 0.4%.

It would seem that Davidson and Cornelius just need more candidates and more options. If they had them, those candidates would likely be starting from a pretty solid base to make a run at the top spots in these two towns.  In fact, if  those options had existed, we very well may be taking about replacing all three Mayors in North Mecklenburg rather than just one.

Clearly, the main issue driving the electoral shellacking in Huntersville was the I77 HOT lanes.  It stands to reason, that same issue was at work creating the high level of “protest” voting in Davidson and Cornelius where both mayors had similar stances as Huntersville Mayor Jill Swain.

This post originally appeared in this week's Herald Weekly at huntersvilleherald.com.

Tolling Trifecta at #NCGOP HQ

Has anyone else been wondering why Gov Pat McCrory has been so staunch in his rock solid support of the I77 HOT lanes project?

In the face of rising public opposition and mounting evidence more than a little something is rotten in Denmark with this deal, the Governor decides he is going to stand with his boys from Cintra rather than with the people he represents.  Who does that?

Here's who...

Back during the summer we told you the sordid tale of two recent NCGOP Executive Directors and their close ties to the Governor as well as Cintra.  See here and here for those details.

Then just a couple of weeks ago we told you about the obscene (and anonymous) $4.7m donation given to the Carolina Rising PAC which benefited Thom Tillis in his campaign for US Senate.  Carolina Rising was formerly operated by current and recently appointed NCGOP Executive Director, Dallas Woodhouse.

In that piece we wondered if Dallas Woodhouse could make it a "trifecta" of shady connections between the top spot at NCGOP HQ, the I77 HOT lanes project, and Cintra.

Well, the other shoe has now dropped on that one.

On Tuesday, the Raleigh News & Observer reported on tax documents put out by the people behind OpenSecrets.org showing that one of the largest Super PACs in the country, Crossroads GPS, was behind the huge check to Carolina Rising.  Crossroads GPS is a PAC founded by none other than Karl Rove, advisor to former President George W Bush.

For more analysis on the Woodhouse connections in this plus other shenanigans, check out the DailyHaymaker.com stories here and here.

So where is the connection to Cintra?

When researching the pieces covering two of Woodhouse's predecessors as NCGOP Executive Director, Chris McClure and Russell Peck, one other politically connected name also popped up but the pieces did not seem to fit.  That was Patrick Rhode, Vice President of Corporate Affairs for Cintra, USA.

Now those pieces fit perfectly.

The first two jobs on Rhode's LinkedIn profile are Deputy Director of National Advance Operations for the Bush Cheney 2000 campaign and Special Assistant to the President of the United States, the White House.

These are positions where he would have worked closely with Karl Rove, President Bush's right hand man, and the man behind Crossroads GPS.

From the rest of Rhode's resume it seems pretty clear the most valuable skills he brings to a job are his political connections.

He has been at Cintra for going on 8 years now a time span that more than covers the entire history of the HOT lanes efforts here in NC.

Loop this all in with the storyline we told you about here covering the impact of ALEC (including Cintra's involvement) in the history of the I77 HOT lanes, and you get a pretty clear picture of what is going on.

Highly connected, very powerful people with more money to throw around than most people will see in a lifetime want this to happen.

Governor Pat is not going to stand up to them.  Let's hope we can find a judge who will.

I77 Summit details released...results pre-ordained???

Below are the details released for the coming "summit" on I77.

It does not look like the goal is cancellation of the Cintra contract.  That is disappointing.

One can see the meeting going something like this...

Toll opponents make a valid point.  NCDOT/Cintra says "no that is not true."

Repeat ad nauseam.

To be clear, I hope that is not the case, but the info below does not give that impression.

Hopefully, when the final agenda comes out it has some concrete actionable items on it.

From Rep Charles Jeter to all invitees...

The CRTPO/Municipal Summit will be held at Cornelius Town Hall on Monday November 23^rd at 9:00am. 

Please advise asap if you are planning on attending or know if you cannot attend.  We need to make sure we are properly set-up based on the number of invitees planning to attend. 

An official agenda will be forthcoming, but here are some answers to the FAQ’s I’ve received…

• Will the meeting be public?  Yes
• How long will the meeting last?  We hope to have a productive and organized meeting, however, we do not want to cut off any questions or discussion.  The meeting length will be up to the participants other than my promise of having a hard stop at noon.
• What do we hope to accomplish?  The purpose of this meeting will not be a complaint-fest of arguing back and forth.  This is designed to separate fact from fiction regarding the project and to determine what options exist and the ramifications of any alternate solutions that will may be presented.  This summit will not be limited to the current project, but will include a discussion of managed lanes region-wide.  As a result, we believe it is imperative for all CRTPO represented government entities to attend. 
• Who will facilitate the meeting?  I will lead the meeting and will be very strict in keeping decorum.  Regardless of anyone’s predisposition to this issue, we are all trying solve the transportation issues of our region and any attempts to turn this into a circus will be immediately stopped. 
• Will there be any presentations?  Yes, both the NCDOT and the Lake Norman Chamber will make presentations, though I have asked each to be brief. 

Mayoral HOT Lanes Bucket Brigade finally comes clean!

A couple of articles in Tuesday's Observer leaves little room for misinterpretation that all three local mayors have been working against the will of the people when it come to implementing HOT lanes.

Not that there ever was really much doubt.  We've covered there antics over the past few years in pieces like this, this, and this.

Today, first there is this piece recounting outgoing Huntersville Mayor Jill Swain's unequivacle support for the HOT Lanes project saying to the Observer...

“What we need to do now is we need to move forward. We need to let this happen.”

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/opinion/opn-columns-blogs/o-pinion/article45204528.html#storylink=cpy

During the campaign all we ever heard was that saying Swain supported tolls was somehow spreading misinformation.  It appears those who defended her on this point were the ones being less than truthful.

In the second article in the Observer, it was revealed North Meck Mayors Travis and Woods have apparently been planning a boondoggle to Texas for "months" now to see Cintra's tolling operation.

“This is a fact-finding mission for information sharing and forecasting that we can report back to our community."

They better hurry.

Somewhat ironically, on the same day that story hit the news, this one out of Texas also broke.  It looks like the legislative tide has turned in the Lone Star State against managed lanes projects like the I77 HOT lanes.

In Texas...

"House Transportation Committee Chair Joe Pickett signaled he’s on a war path to end toll managed lanes at a hearing of the Select Committee on Transportation Planning last week."

Those are the current facts on the ground in Texas.

How much do you want to bet we don't hear anything about that from the Travis-Woods fact finding tour?

Bonus Observation:  The Observer made a big point of saying Travis and Woods are paying their own way to Texas and Cintra/NCDOT aren't covering the bill.

That being the case, paying their own way is the only way they could go.  After last week's pasting at the polls in Huntersville, does anyone see the Cornelius or Huntersville Boards paying for it?

PSA: Local Business Groups Plan Future I77 Update

Put this one on your calendar for a few weeks from now.

With lots of action over the past few days on the I77 issue including the surprise start of construction Monday night, Lake Norman area business groups will planning an update on the project.

Following the example set by LKN Chamber President Mike Russell at last week's press conference, they are not about to "lay down".

By the time this event rolls around, there will likely be lots of interesting updates. The so-called I-77 summit with the governor or his minions at the NCDOT will have already occurred. There also could have been an injunction filed by state legislators.

Here are the event details:

The Northcross Master Association, Lake Norman Chamber of Commerce, and the I77 Business Plan would like to invite Lake Norman Businesses to a Toll Lane Update

What:  Business Update on the I77 Toll Road Project

Who:   Lake Norman Business leaders and owners

When:  Dec. 2nd at 2 PM (allow 1.5 hours)

Where:  Days Inn in Cornelius (Exit 28 across from the Acropolis Restaurant - 19901 Holiday Lane, Cornelius, NC 28031) .

Why:  Our Speakers will bring the business community up to date on:

• Impact of the toll road plan on business access and congestion (John Hettwer - Former  LN CoC Chairman)
• Changing political environment (Mecklenburg County Commissioner Jim Puckett)
• Law suit to stop the project (WidenI77 Spokesman Kurt Naas)
• How the business community can help find a better I77 solution for our businesses, community, and future

Hope you can join us for this important meeting!

Please RSVP to Vince Winegardner at vwinegardner@bellsouth.net.

Davidson election by the numbers

Update: The original version of this post incorrectly stated Davidson Pct 206 only had turnout of 8.8%.  The correct turnout was 15.1%.  Double counting of data on the MeckBOE caused the error.  Apologies for the error on my part.

Well, numbers have finally rolled in this past week that give a little more color on the recent election in Davidson.

One might think with so little choice on the ballot there wouldn't be much to gleen from the election.

Not true.  You just have to look closely.

Based on preliminary turnout numbers provided by MeckBOE, turnout was down this cycle with only 1267 voters heading to the polls this year versus 2139 voters who turned out in 2013.  That's a 40% drop.  Not good.  Not good at all.

In this piece written before the election, we covered the topic of how to "supercharge" your vote through selective voting, or withholding a vote that might otherwise be cast.

Here is a look at those numbers.  In the uncontested Mayor's race the impact of this certainly tempers Mayor John Woods "victory".

Woods "won" the race with 87.89% of the vote while there were 127 write-in votes, or 12.11%.  Compared to 2013 the write-ins were up significantly in terms of both raw numbers and percentage of the vote.  In 2013, there were only 86 write-ins for just 4.89% of the total vote.

Things get even more interesting when looking at the "undervote", or those who cast a ballot but left the Mayor's race blank.  When the undervote is included only 72.6% of voters pulled the lever for Woods.  Again the totals were different when looking at the precinct level.  69.6% in 127 versus 73.5% in 206.

As a frame of reference, the hotly contested mayoral race in Huntersville had tiny numbers of these "protest" votes.  There, only 7 write-in ballots were cast and even fewer left the race blank.  Well over 99% of voters made a selection from the two listed candidates.

Davidon's high rate of protest votes in the Mayor's race certainly says more about the need for candidates than anything else, but if over 1/4 of voters won't vote for a sitting incumbent even when that incumbent is the only option, that is certainly not a good thing.

In the race for the Board of Commissioners, again there were not any real surprises with who won.  All of the incumbents were reelected.  However, it is worth noting that the top 3 vote getters were all people on record as opposing the I77 HOT lanes project.

Some readers may be surprised to see that political newcomer Michael Angell received as many votes as he did.  Angell ran what can best be described as a "stealth" campaign.  Or more directly, he did not do a lot of traditional campaigning.  One could likely attribute this to the fact to the was the only candidate openly opposed to the controversial Catalyst Project.  That may have been the only thing many voters knew about him, but for well over 500 voters that was enough.

A couple of positive things can also be seen in the data.

First, none of the candidates were terribly skewed in where they got their votes relative to the other candidates.  Meaning all of their percentage vote totals between precincts were fairly close - between 35-45% from precinct 127 with the remainder from precinct 206.  Since 206 has a much larger share of registered voters, that seems about right.

Also, there was a decent amount of "strategic" voting - meaning voters did not always fill out a full slate of votes.  The overall undervote in this race was also about 1/4 of the votes that could have been cast.  However, in this type of plurality election some under voting is common, and it appears voters still voted for 3-4 candidates on average.

There is always something interesting in the numbers even in races where there is not much competition.