"Formal Appeal" or Desperate Plea from McCrory Campaign as Cooper lead grows

Roy Cooper's lead in the NC Governor's race ballooned on Monday as more updated vote totals rolled in to the NCSBE.  As of Monday night, the lead stood at 9,716 votes according to the NCSBE website.

And almost as if on queue, Monday afternoon Pat McCrory’s campaign manager, Russell Peck, sent out an email asking for money to fight the tide. Regular readers of aShortChronicle will remember Peck from these posts here and here.

In an email titled "Formal Appeal", Peck makes what sounds more like a desperate plea for cash as time appears to be running out.

Over the weekend, attorney and registered Durham County voter Thomas Stark filed a formal appeal with the State Board of Elections in relation to the ‘malfeasance’ in tabulating approximately 90,000 ballots that were reported just before midnight on Election Day.

It was concerning to learn that the Durham County Board decided to not approve Tom Stark’s protest to recount early vote totals from election night.

The malfunctions and irregularities in Durham have been extremely troubling to this campaign and the people of North Carolina, and the State Board confirmed several errors. 

We are now left with no other position but to request the State Board of Elections expeditiously order a full recount of Durham County early vote totals.

We need funds to help us finish the job. Please contribute to the Legal Defense Fund TODAY!

Russell Peck
Team McCrory

The "malfunctions and irregularities" in Durham County may be troubling to Peck but they weren't the biggest problem for the campaign he was managing.

Take a look at the below numbers from the counties with the 4 largest cities in NC.

Of the four metro area counties, the vote share for the Democrat candidate was up the least in Durham County compared to 2012.  That's both in percentage terms and in raw numbers.  You'll also notice that Durham is consistently overwhelmingly Democrat with the Dem candidate capturing over 70% the past three election cycles.

Even if the recount request eventually does goes forward in Durham and even if it finds some issue, it doesn't pass the smell test that enough erroneous votes could possibly be found there to overcome Cooper's growing lead.

Rather than writing a check to Mr Peck, the fiscally conservative thing to do would be to keep one's money safely in their own bank account.

Cooper zings McCrory in first debate with I77 storyline originally detailed at aShortChronicle

Stories broken at aShortChronicle a year ago appear to have resonated with the Roy Cooper Campaign.

Last Summer, aShortChronicle broke the story regarding connections between Cintra, the NCGOP, and the McCrory Campaign in posts here and here.  These posts are both top five of all posts at aShortChronicle.

During the debate last Friday after McCrory danced and deflected a question regarding the I77 Toll project, Cooper answered directly saying the contract with Cintra should be cancelled.  Then he zinged McCrory for the very connections outlined in those posts.  Cooper says "Governor McCrory's campaign staff was hired by this company" - meaning Cintra.  If you listen closely you can hear an uncomfortable chuckle come from McCrory immediately after that line.

Check out the exchange starting at the 23:30 mark of this video from Charlotte's ABC11 affiliate.

We here at aShortChronicle wouldn't be presumptuous enough to think the Cooper campaign wouldn't have known about these connections otherwise.  Finding out this stuff is Opposition Research 101 for any big time political campaign.  However, it is an example how the blogosphere can be well ahead of the mainstream media on what might eventually be important stories.

It could be telling that the Cooper Campaign threw this punch right off the bat in the first debate.  Did that happen only because the debate was in Charlotte? Or, do they plan to make a bigger issue of this in the campaign?

Only time will tell, but remember you heard it here first.

Exit 28 Bridge Protest in Pictures

Almost exactly 1 year ago, anti-toll activists  first gathered for a protest at the Exit 28 bridge over I77.  Friday evening they gave a repeat performance as roughly 200 people gathered and showed the movement is still going as strong as ever.

The protest comes as multiple bills have been filed in the legislature this week to cancel the contract with Cintra - the Spanish firm hired by Governor Pat McCrory's NCDOT to build the road.

#NCGov McCrory up to his old tricks

aShortChronicle recently told you about Governor Pat's in-kind campaign contribution from an article on the Forbes Magazine website by a big time McCrory campaign campaign donor.  That's an in-kind donation highly unlikely to be claimed by the McCrory campaign.

Well, now ProgressNC is accusing the Governor and his campaign of doing something similar by illegally coordinating with the official groups supporting the "Connect NC" bond  referendum for this fall.

Here's the response from McCrory mouthpiece Ricky Diaz according to a WBTV report.

"Instead of helping to pass the bipartisan ConnectNC bond that invests in education, national guard readiness and infrastructure without raising taxes, it's pretty obvious that Roy Cooper, the Democrat Party and their SuperPAC ProgressNC are trying to undermine it.They have been coordinating for months and laying the groundwork to try and thwart the bond this (sic) with a bogus complaint just like this, which will only waste taxpayer money and get thrown out like their other frivolous complaints. In fact, I predicted it on Twitter a few days ago. It's just a shame that the Democrats, their SuperPAC and their leading candidate for governor say they support higher education, but now it seems like they only support it if Democrats get the credit."

Now, while there almost certainly is some truth to Diaz's claim this is about politics (it is campaign season after all), it's also likely there is some truth to the complaint about coordination.

The walls between campaigns and PACs are notoriously thin.  Staff and supporters often float seamlessly between the two groups.  Ad agencies and other connected groups support both parties.  In this case, the complaint indicated McCrory's campaign and the Connect NC campaign are using the same Virginia based law firm - a firm with connections to Karl Rove.

Having a controversial referendum on the ballot while at the same time running for high office provides a bad case of deja vu when it comes to McCrory.

Back in 2007 when Mecklenburg activists first worked to repeal the county's 1/2 cent transit tax, McCrory (then the mayor of Charlotte) immediately jumped into the referendum fray.

From this article at Charlotte Business Journal, as Mayor, Pat McCrory took the lead in coordinating the "counter offensive" to the citizen-led repeal effort.  He even directed the use of government resources to oppose it.

When the Vote Against Repeal effort ramped up, it engaged in all sorts of shady tactics.  Read this piece from MeckDeck.com for the details.  McCrory was running for re-election as Mayor and planning his first run for Governor.  McCrory filed to run for Governor in January of 2008, just 2 months after winning re-election.

When it comes the Connect NC bonds, nothing that happens in the next weeks until election day should be at all surprising.  Doing whatever it takes to impact a referendum involving one of his pet projects is par for the course for McCrory.

#NCGov McCrory has billionaire spinmeister/donor at Forbes Magazine

Came across this link on CarolinaPlottHound.com today, and it got the campaign season BS meter ringing loudly.

It's an article from Forbes Magazine written by billionaire Rex Sinquefield out of Missouri.  The article reads more like a campaign add than anything else.

One would think McCrory single handedly is responsible for NC's AAA bond rating.  Here' a sample...

"Last week, North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory delivered the banner news that his state upheld its AAA bond rating – the highest rating possible – from all three major bond-rating agencies. North Carolina’s stellar standing owes much to Governor McCrory’s leadership. Unwilling to send the Tar Heel State down the same tax-and-spend death spiral that plagues too many other states, the North Carolina governor developed a strong approach toward tax reform – and stuck to it."

The news is good to be sure, but the credit is misplaced.   If anything, the credit goes to the fiscal conservatives in the NC Senate, not McCrory.

Here's a more accurate depiction from DailyHaymaker.com on the governor's involvement with the 2013 tax reform Sinquefield credits to McCrory.

"This deal is a far cry from what Civitas was calling for on this site.  The Senate had stood strong on trimming taxes and cutting government. Today, the Senate approved a much-more watered down bill favored by Team Tillis and the McCrory administration.

Gov. Pat had balked at earlier, more conservative proposals put forth by the Senate, saying that he needed to be sure that there would be enough revenue to pay for the things that state government needed to pay for. Yet, this week, we had McCrory, Tillis, and Berger this week touting a tax bill. The legislature has yet to pass a budget.  How does Gov. Pat KNOW that this tax bill gives him enough revenue if a budget has not been passed?

It’s nice that tax rates are being adjusted downward.  But if the GOP majority in the legislature doesn’t seriously trim the size and scope of state government, this tax “deal” is irrelevant.  The spending craze will just pile onto our current debt. Gov. Pat’s proposed budget is $400 million higher than Bev Perdue’s final budget. "

So, who is this guy Rex Sinquefield, Missouri billionaire?

Well, for one thing he's a McCrory donor.  Sinquefield and his wife both sent maximum sized checks of $5,100 each to the McCrory campaign this last reporting cycle.

How much do you want to bet Governor Pat won't be reporting Sinquefield's column in a national magazine as an "in kind" contribution?

Not much?  Me either.

Roy Cooper's Political Bombshell

This past weekend the good folks over at WidenI77.org made public an Investigative Demand letter sent from AG Roy Cooper's office to I77 Mobility Partners/Cintra.

It's a very interesting read.

16 different demands for documents are made covering 3 main categoies.

• Information about I77 Mobility Partners' public communications plan.  For a project that was supposedly a "done deal" the firm has been sending out a lot of ads and press releases still "selling" the plan.
• Cintra's other failed projects in North America.  This would seem to be largely in reference to the issues brought up by Cornelius resident Diane Gilroy in a letter to Governor McCrory. Read the previous coverage at aShortChronicle on Gilroy's research here and here.
• Financial related questions about the project.  The AG's office wants to know more about how much money Cintra expects from the state as well as communications to the ratings agencies.  Read the previous coverage at aShortChronicle on the HOT lanes debt here.

All of these things have been questions/subjects aShortChronicle has been covering for months, so it's nice to see the AG's office finally catching up.

However, we want to point out something specific related to the first bullet listed above.  The one related to the ads.  The fifth demand is specific to lobbying and ad placement.

"5. All communications between You and Ross Communications, Mercury LLC, and any other firm engaged to advertise, lobby, or communicate to the public or third parties regarding the I-77 Express Lanes project."

Regular readers of aShortChronicle will recognize the name Mercury LLC.  The firm and its "man in NC", Russell Peck, have been covered here, here, and here over the past several months.

If Peck's name is ringing a bell more recently, that may be because he's reprising his role from 2012 as Governor Pat McCrory's campaign manager.

Having your campaign manager's firm involved in an official investigation conducted by your opponent can not be a good thing!

If/when that political bombshell gets dropped on the campaign trail by the mainstream media, it will be fun to watch.

I77 Toll Issue finally makes appearance in looming NC Governor's race

Well, it didn't take long for the political ramifications of last week's shellacking of toll road supporting politicians to make an impact on the upcoming 2016 NC Governor's race.

From Tuesday's CharlotteObserver.com story by Jim Morrill.

"I asked North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper about the tolls when he came to Charlotte on Tuesday. A Democrat running for governor, he said a statewide bond referendum offered “the perfect opportunity” to include money to widen I-77.

McCrory proposed a road bond measure, though it didn’t include money for I-77. But when the General Assembly put a $2 billion bond package on next year’s ballot, no road projects were in it.

“Strong governors can get things like that done,” Cooper said.

So expect the toll issue to continue to fester, at least as long as an I-77 traffic jam.
 “It’s going to be a huge thing in the governor’s race,” Phillips says. “If they don’t do something to stop this thing, I’d sure hate to be running for their office.”" So, how should McCrory respond?  He has a golden opportunity with the upcoming "summit" called by Rep Charles Jeter to turn this thing into a political positive for himself, but he has to take bold action. McCrory could show up in person at the summit, declare the State will cancel the contract based on the information handed to him personally by Diane Gilroy outlining the legal issues of the firms involved in the project.  We told you about that here.  The letter gives the Governor the political cover he needs to blow away one of the main reasons toll supporting politicians have been hiding behind,  That "reason" is other companies won't want to deal with NC on P3 contracts if the state walks away without cause.  Gilroy's letter gives the state "cause". McCrory should go on to demand the state fight any legal challenges from Ferrovial/Cintra/I77 Mobility to levy any penalties for canceling the contract.  IF the contract is invalid due to the points in Gilroy's letter, the State owes nothing! Finally, he could score a few cheap political points by throwing this back at Roy Cooper and saying the AG's office should have done a better job assisting NCDOT in vetting the application by Cintra. With Mecklenburg County having nearly 10% of the registered Republicans in the state, Governor McCrory will lose in 2016 if he loses a considerable portion of voters in this key county, his home county. The Governor should think long and hard about what his next step will be.

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article44176308.html#storylink=c

How close does Cintra's road get to Governor Pat McCrory?

Whether one calls it lobbying, public relations, business development, or crisis management, what you are really hiring when you employ somebody for any of the above functions is a "fixer".  That's someone who gets things done that might not be do-able otherwise.

Lobbying is big business.  There is lots of money involved.  Lots of connections to work.

It is also one of the stops many people in politics take in between campaigns while working their way up the ladder in the political world.

Recently, a poster over at the Exit 28 Ridiculousness Facebook page posted something about Cintra having their own registered lobbyists in North Carolina, so that seemed like a good place to start looking into how that part of the proposed $650 million I77 HOT lanes project has panned out.

WARNING!  The rest of this post is a bit stomach churning.  Reading any further may require some Pepto Bismol.  Get some now if necessary.

The interconnected names that come up when looking at the people and firms involved in the past and present lobbying efforts employed by Cintra and related firms will make your head spin.  Official "lobbyists" are required to register as such with state and federal authorities.  However, as mentioned above, influential people working in the firms involved in lobbying are not always officially lobbyists.  They don't have to register as such.

In Cintra's case this story starts with someone who is a lobbyist.  According to the NC Secretary of State website, Cintra employs three lobbyists in North Carolina from a law firm named Brooks Pierce.   One of those lobbyists is a man named Chris McClure.  McClure was hired by the firm in January of 2013.

Who is Chris McClure?

Well, one of his previous jobs was as the Executive Director of the North Carolina Republican Party.  That is the top staff position within the state party. McClure held that position from 2007-2009.  McClure has also done work for Texas Governor Rick Perry according to his bio.  (That will be important later.)

During the 2008 campaign as head of the state party staff, McClure certainly would have crossed paths with the next person in this story, one Russell Peck.

During the 2008 election cycle, Russell Peck, was in charge of the North Carolina operation for the McCain-Palin campaign.  That also was the cycle where McCrory was on the ticket in his first run for governor.

The connections between McMclure and Peck go further than this however.  In 2009 Peck took over from McClure as the next Executive Director of the NCGOP.  They also both serve on something called the NC Advisory Committee of the US Global Leadership Commission.  (There are a number of interesting names on this list.)

During 2012 Russell Peck surfaces again as Pat McCrory's campaign manager during McCrory's second run at the governor's mansion.

After managing MCCrory's successful campaign, Russell Peck went to work for a firm named Mercury LLC.  Mercury's LinkedIn profile describes its business with this.

Mercury is a high-stakes public strategy firm.

We use our expertise and reach to gain competitive advantage for clients. Our expertise comes from extensive must-win campaign experience and operating successfully at the highest rung of business, government, politics and media. Our reach is the ability to use strategic intelligence to mobilize the message and persuade the toughest audiences.

We have proven results for prominent figures, leading advocacy groups and the world’s most successful companies.

That's a long winded way of saying lobbyist.

Russell Peck is listed as the point of contact for Mercury in North Carolina on the firm's website.  Peck is only registered to lobby for one firm in North Carolina.  That firm has nothing to do with
with transportation, but it would seem to be a limited work load for someone in the lobbying biz who has worked so closely to the governor.

Interestingly, according to opensecrets.org, Mercury appears to have done work in the past for a company called Macquarie.  Macquarie has been a business partner with Cintra on multiple toll projects in the US and Canada, including some work in Texas.

Then of course there is Moore & Van Allen.

Readers may remember when Mecklenburg County Commissioner Dumont Clarke recused himself during the vote on a resolution by the county asking the state to delay financial close.  This was on May 19th.  Clarke sited a potential conflict of interest with a client and the project.

Moore & Van Allen happens to also be the firm where Governor Pat McCrory himself passed the time as an employee between his gubernatorial runs.  According to this article McCrory was hired because he could "add value to what lawyers could do."

The firm has also hired a close McCrory aid, Brian Nick, after McCrory became governor in 2012.

So to sum it all up, here you have two former heads of the NCGOP staff working as lobbyists.  One works directly for Cintra the other for a firm that has done work for a close Cintra business partner in the past.

Both of these men worked closely with Governor McCrory.

Then you have the firm where McCrory himself worked as a non-lobbying lobbyist having an employee having to recuse from a County Commission vote because of a conflict of interest somehow related to the project.

Remember the comment earlier in this post about Cintra lobbyist Chris McClure working for Governor Rick Perry in Texas?

Well, this whole twisted tale sounds eerilly like this article outlining lobbying efforts with close ties to the governor, including Cintra's, in Texas.

This all took about two hours of googling to pull together.  Someone with more time on their hands and resourses available should really look into this.

Who knows what you might find?

Bradford, Jeter not to blame for marriage bill override

The “veto” used to be a powerful weapon in the Governor’s arsenal, but recently it has not been an effective one for North Carolina’s chief executives.  With veto-proof super majorities in both houses of the legislature, the General Assembly now regularly overrides gubernatorial vetoes – sometimes with ease and sometimes only after “gaming the system”.

Last week’s veto override of Senate Bill 2 in the House – a bill which allows magistrates and registrars to “opt out” of performing any marriages if they object to performing same-sex marriages due to a religious objection - definitely falls into the latter category.

Before getting into the details of how the House override occurred, here is a little history on the recent demise of the veto’s power.

Over the last ten sessions of the NCGA there have been 34 gubernatorial vetoes issued.  Sixteen of those vetoes have been overridden.  Fifteen of the sixteen overrides have occurred since the Republicans took over both houses of the legislature after the 2010 elections.  Eleven of the fifteen Republican-led overrides were against Democrat Beverly Perdue.  However, maybe more surprising is that four out of five vetoes from Republican Governor Pat McCrory have also been overridden by the heavily Republican legislature.

This recent history shows where the real power lies in Raleigh.  It’s in the General Assembly, not the Governor’s mansion.  But even with all that power, sometimes the leadership in the legislature has to work at it to achieve the 3/5ths vote, or 60% super majority, in each chamber to snub the Governor.

So, what does all this have to do with local politics?

Well, it just so happens that all three local legislators, Senator Jeff Tarte, and Representatives Charles Jeter and John Bradford all supported the Governor’s opposition to this bill.  All three voted against its initial passage, and Senator Tarte was one of only three Republican Senators to vote against the override in the Senate..

The Senate override however was the easy part.  That vote was 32-16 in favor  – easily surpassing the 60% mark of the members present.  Two of the total 50 senators were absent for that vote.

One would think absent voters would not matter, but in the subsequent NC House vote they would be necessary to ensure a successful override attempt.

In the House override vote last Thursday, 10 members were not present – four Democrats and six Republicans.  That dropped the total number of “yes” votes required to 66.  Those favoring overriding the governor had 69 votes in their pocket, so a vote was called and the bill was overridden.

As soon as the vote occurred Thursday morning, attention turned to those who were absent which allowed for the smaller number of votes required.  That attention – particularly on the political left - quickly focused on the three Republicans who voted against the original bill but who were not on hand last Thursday to vote against the override.  Two of those three Republicans were local Reps Charles Jeter and John Bradford.

The questions being asked in cyberspace implied the Republican no-shows deliberately sandbagged the vote by not showing up and thus allowed the override to succeed.  The implication was that they had not stood by their original votes.  After all, last Thursday was the first excused absence this legislative session for each of them.  It seemed suspicious.

Unfortunately for those critics, the math doesn't support their position.

Everything else being equal, even if Jeter, Bradford and fellow Republican Rep Jon Hardister who all voted against the original bill had been on hand last Thursday, the override would have still been successful.  Or put another way, their absence did not cause it to pass.

Rep Jeter was out with a stomach bug.  He says he would have been there, but knew his vote would not have altered the outcome.  Rep Bradford knew new was going to be out that day and let the Governor know in advance that his opposition to the bill had not changed.

But what about the other absent members?

There were also four Democrats and three other Republicans not present last Thursday.  After analyzing their previous votes, it appears this override likely would have occurred even if the full House membership had been present.  If all of the other absent members had been present and voted the same way they did when the bill passed originally, the vote would have been 72 – 48 – or exactly 60%.

That however might have been too close for comfort for those wanting the override to succeed, so they waited until the odds were in their favor.  In doing so, they gave a lesson in power-politics and dealt another blow to the power of the veto.

Does Governor Pat care about North Meck's opinion on transportation?

There have been recent reports of Governor Pat's office soliciting support in various parts of the state for his multi-billion dollar "Connect NC" bond package.

Various local bodies from municipal and county elected boards to local chambers of commerse are being asked by Governor Pat to pass resolutions supporting his proposal.

Incidentally, that's not unlike the resolutions Senator Tarte is asking local boards to pass opposing the HOT lanes contract with Cintra - resolutions Huntersville Mayor Jill Swain sees as unnecesary.  

We here at aShortChronicle thought it was worth seeing if the same effort was taking place here in North Mecklenburg by the Governor's office.

According to the town clerks from Huntersville, Cornelius, and Davidson, no such request for support of the Connect NC bonds has come into the towns.

Makes sense in a warped way.

Since Governor Pat is committed to sticking the area with 50 years of tolls, he is probably pretty sure asking for support from this area on just about anything is a waste of time?

Does he care about this area's opinion?

Nope.  No he does not.

But, the fact that he's going elsewhere around the state asking for resolutions shows that such things carry weight with the General Assembly when its being asked to pass some sort of controversial bill.

That fact may be lost on Huntersville Mayor Jill Swain.  Let's hope tonight it is not lost on a majority of the Huntersville Board as they vote on a resolution asking the NCGA to pull the plug on the I77 HOT lanes project.

Politicians comment on I77 from cyberspace

Politicians at all levels of government had something to say last week on the I77 HOT lanes.  Here are a few of the gems collected from cyberspace before and after the project’s financial close amid swelling opposition.

In an email to one area residents posted to the Exit 28 Ridiculousness Facebook page, US Senator and former Speaker of the NC House, Thom Tillis had this to say regarding the project.

From US Senator Thom Tillis - May 19th, 1:18pm-

“I understand your concerns about the NCDOT I-77 Express Lanes project.  However, the responsibility for this issue falls under the jurisdiction of the state, not the federal, government.  Therefore I would recommend that you contact your State Senator and State Representatives and share your concerns with them.”

It takes an impressive amount of chutzpah to send that to a constituent when you yourself had been the state Representative just a short time ago who had the most influence to actually stop the project.

One of my early blog posts on the HOT lanes project from way back in March 2013 was titled “HOT Lanes: The Empire Strikes Back”.  It recounts WidenI77.org activists trekking to Raleigh to do exactly what Senator Thom Tillis suggests in this email.  They went to meet their then-Representative, Thom Tillis, to discuss their concerns.  Instead of a meeting with their Representative, they were met by a room full of people including, NCDOT staff, consultants, and even media listening on the phone.

As you can imagine that meeting didn't go well.

Also last Tuesday, former Cornelius Mayor Lynette Rinker posted the below to County Commissioner Matthew Ridenhour’s Facebook page.  The post came as the County Commission prepared to vote unanimously asking for a delay in the project.

From former Mayor Lynette Rinker May 19th 6:18pm -

“Matthew If it were as easy to get money as the opponents say don't you think this would have gone away long ago. Also just putting GP lanes to exit 28 or 30 solves nothing. This is about winning for the sake of winning.‬‬”

As Mayor, Rinker cast the tie breaker in favor of tolls when it came before the Cornelius Board in a surprise vote in May of 2013.  She knows a little about “winning for the sake of winning”.  Ms Rinker now serves as the MeckGOP Vice Chair where that skill-set will likely come in handy.

The next day, the below appeared on Governor McCrory’s Facebook page after a speech to the Republican Governors Association.  It came just hours after the deal with Cintra was inked.

From Governor McCrory May 20th 2:43 pm –

“It was great to join fellow governors and leaders from across the country to discuss the need to invest in our state's infrastructure and transportation to prepare for the future. North Carolina is leading the way in finding innovative ways to fund those generational investments without raising taxes through initiatives like our Connect NC bonds.”

It is telling that the Governor specifically mentions the Connect NC Bonds while keeping mum on the HOT lanes.  If he was proud of what his NCDOT had done earlier that very day by signing a 50 year contract with Cintra, don't you think he would have mentioned it?

Finally, there’s this from District 1 County Commissioner, Jim Puckett.  His comments are a breath of fresh air in their directness after so much political double-talk.

In an email from Puckett posted on Facebook by former Cornelius Commissioner William Rakatansky, Puckett unloads and says what many in this area are thinking.

From Commissioner Jim Puckett on May 20th 5:02pm –

“I have been informed NCDOT has signed the final documents for I-77. I find this impossible to believe. To ignore the request to delay of five elected bodies and instead accelerate the signing of the contract that further obligates the State of NC to $80 mil. is the single most insulting and arrogant act of governance I have witnessed in my 18 years of politics. For the first time in my life I am ashamed of being part of the political process, Watergate, Clinton’s affair, Easley’s shady land deals Patrick Cannon’s bags of cash were all driven by personal gain, this however was government acting against the request of the governed without even the decency of a response.”


Puckett’s strong words call out perfectly everything that is wrong with this situation in particular.  At the same time, the other three comments offer up a trifecta of what’s wrong with our government at the Federal, State and Local levels in general.  It's government where politicians refuse to take responsibility for what they've done to those they supposedly represent

This post first appeared in the Herald Weekly at huntersvilleherald.com

Thom TIllis's "Conservative" Problem

I recently received an interesting email blast from a former lower-level MeckGOP official in North Mecklenburg asking a former high ranking MeckGOP official for evidence of Speaker Thom Tillis's conservative credentials.  This evidence was being sought to assuage the concerns of a Triad area friend regarding Speaker Tillis's conservative bona fides to be the NCGOP nominee to take on Kay Hagan in the looming US Senate contest.

You see, this Triad area voter had concerns about Speaker Tillis.  The Speaker had not appeared at a recent candidate forum put on by a party organization.  There were also concerns about whether or not his conservative convictions were strong enough.  Would he just go-along to get along if he makes it to Washington?  That's what this voter wanted to know. 

The response?  The former high ranking MeckGOP official simply forwarded copy pulled from the Thom Tillis for Senate campaign site.  This was sent with the now standard encouragement that Thom Tillis is the best candidate to take on Kay Hagan this November.

What does this anecdote tell us?  A few things come to mind. 

First, it's not a great sign if establishment party officials have to dig around for evidence to support their candidate and the best they can come up with is copy from a campaign site.  That's not likely to convince an incredulous voter.

Second, it's some hard evidence that the Speaker constantly missing these small forums across the state is something people notice.  It does impact their decision making.  And, it might prove fatal particularly if this contest heads to a run-off. 

Third, when combined with recent polling data, this anecdote is just one more data point that shows the Speaker has a real problem with at least a portion of the conservative NCGOP base. 

Recent polling by Public Policy Polling and Survey USA shows a consistent theme.  In the GOP primary, there seems to be a strong vein of “anybody but Tillis” in the likely electorate.  Even though Thom Tillis enjoys high name recognition among the GOP faithful, raises more money from deep pocketed sources, and possesses the support of the national GOP establishment, he has been unable to break away from the pack in these polls.  

The combined totals for the other candidates double the Speaker’s totals with a large contingent of undecideds still in the mix.  These other candidates regularly campaign to the right of the Speaker, so their combined totals have significance – especially if this contest heads into a run-off.

The Tillis Campaign has been relatively cautious by not aggressively attacking his primary opponents.  He'll need their supporters if he is ultimately the GOP candidate.  However, there is another tidbit in these polls that shows winning over some of these folks may be an uphill climb no matter what.

Most of these polls also asked about head to head match ups against Kay Hagan. In all of them that did, there is a strong "anybody but Hagan" block - averaging around 40% to 45% of the general election population.  However, among the leading GOP candidates, Thom Tillis is the one who more often trails Hagan in head to head match ups. (Hagan bests Tillis in 2 of the 3 polls) In the most recent PPP poll he is the only Republican from the entire GOP field trailing Hagan.  All of these are within the margin of error, but that consistency in trailing Hagan may indicate that the Speaker is not carrying all of the "anybody but Hagan" block.

Finally, there is evidence that all of this is getting to the establishment, and they are beginning to react.  The most obvious example is Governor McCrory's recent endorsement/non-endorsement of the Speaker to the Washington Post.  Governor McCrory called Tillis the "most viable" Republican to take on Hagan.  (Note: McCrory splits hairs and doesn't call this an endorsement.  Readers can decide for themselves.)  The poll numbers say otherwise, and the Governor is certainly entitled to his opinion like everyone else.  However, there are two problems with this endorsement.

What happens if the Speaker is ultimately not the GOP candidate?  How does the Governor believably support the Republican nominee when he's on record saying someone else was the "most viable"?  McCrory's endorsement actually hurts the general election GOP candidate if the nominee is not Tillis.  The Hagan campaign will have a field day with that.

Also, it's questionable how much a McCrory endorsement helps Tillis with the most conservative in the GOP base for the primary.  Many conservatives have the same problems with the Governor that they have with the Speaker.

Add to that, comments like the recent one from NC Senator Bob Rucho (R-Meck) saying the establishment money will only follow Tillis in the general and not the other GOP hopefuls, and you might begin to think the establishment only cares about getting their guy elected. Sabotaging other GOP candidates in the general is an acceptable price to pay in the attempt to win the primary. 

That's something to remember the next time you hear demands for party unity above all else.

Buckle up!  The next month of this campaign could get bumpy.