The Preacher, the Practitioner, the Pugilist, and the Politician

A Baptist Preacher, a Nurse Practitioner, a Tea Party Pugilist, and a seasoned Politician walk into an auditorium for a debate in small town Davidson.  Out walked four candidates who will still appeal to distinct major areas of the Republican primary electorate.

Nobody delivered a knockout blow in tonight's debate for the GOP nomination and the opportunity face Kay Hagan in November.  That's hard to do when all of the candidates say that they fundamentally agree on most issues. 

None of the candidates made any obvious mistakes.  None of the candidates did anything to lose voters who had decided on their pick for May 6th.

Regardless, here are a few quick observations: 

If anybody "won" the debate it was probably Thom Tillis.  He's the politician.  He's the smoothest.  He's the most polished.  My guess is the people who are just tuning into this race (the truly undecided voters because they have not been paying attention), liked what they heard.  Does that type of performance get him up to 40% and enough votes to avoid a runoff?  That's still the big question.

If you are looking for a fighter and not a politician (and I don't use politician here as a dirty word), then Brannon is your guy.  He went after Tillis more directly than any other candidate.  He pushed back when the Speaker twisted his words on a question regarding the 2nd amendment.  He definitely gave the impression that you will get someone willing to go to the mat and go repeatedly.  However, one has to wonder how well his repeated and constant references to the Constitution go over on TV.  This works great at small events with hardcore conservative activist types, but it might not translate well to mass media.

If you want the gentleman social conservative, Mark Harris fits the bill.  However, politics is a contact sport and tonight the good pastor didn't even suit up.  He came off flat.  He didn't have the fire you would expect from someone who led the charge on something like Amendment 1.  Again, he gave no wrong answers, but the answers he gave were not going to sway any of the undecided into saying "he's my guy.".

If you are looking for a folksy, Sarah Palin-esque candidate Heather Grant meets the criteria.  She had the fire Harris was lacking, and she gave the right answers just like the rest of them.  She has a good back story and would make a fine Republican lawmaker.  Is she ready for the US Senate versus the State Legislature?  The General Assembly probably would have been a better choice for a first time run.  She'd win easily in the right district.

Nothing changed this evening.  This one still seems headed for a runoff - likely one between Brannon and Tillis.  They'll all meet two more times in quick succession for two more debates, then it will be time to watch the polls.

NCSEN Candidates put on a good show in Huntersville

Some great political theater came to Huntersville Thursday night.

The show was put on by the new Lake Norman Conservatives activist group with all the ingredients for a solid performance - good speakers, good organization, and a good crowd.  If they can repeat it on a regular basis, the group could be in for a long run on the political stage here in North Mecklenburg.

Over 150 people packed the main room plus overflow
to see GOP NCSEN candidates Thursday night.

A packed house with overflow seating came to hear the three GOP candidates for US Senate who were on hand to answer questions - Greg Brannon, Mark Harris, and Heather Grant.  Bill Flynn had committed to the forum but dropped out of the race all together on Thursday morning.  There was the now-standard empty chair with Thom Tillis's name on it.  Media was on hand including Jim Morrill from the Charlotte Observer as well as a reporter from the Associated Press.  An operative from a pro-Hagan PAC was even thought to be seen circulating in the audience.  Coverage of the event got some national attention   

There was a definite Tea Party vibe to the event and the crowd.  Guerrilla videographer Chuck Suter was on hand.  Multiple small cameras were taking it all in.  Christian Hine, President of CAUTION - Charlotte's main outlet for the Tea Party movement - served as the forum's moderator.  The crowd was a bit younger, a bit more diverse, a bit more casually dressed than your average Republican Party affair.  But make no mistake, they were equally as intense and interested as any you will meet in this area.

When the questions started flying all three candidates presented themselves well.  Dr Brannon has been on the stump for a while now.  His delivery and detailed references to the Constitution are delivered with ease.  Reverend Harris is as polished as you'd expect from a someone used to speaking with passion in front of a crowds.  Heather Grant more than held her own. 

Seeing all of these candidates debate alongside of Thom Tillis would certainly have been interesting.   But while Thom Tillis wasn't there in person and hardly mentioned at all during the evening, his supporters weren't going to cede any ground on social media during the event.  A quick glance at Twitter showed the #NCSEN hashtag being bombarded with several Pro-Tillis tweets right at 7pm when the event was scheduled to kick-off.  Coordinated by the campaign or just coincidence, they came mostly from a single account and appeared to be staged in advance and ready to fire from right at 7pm until roughly 7:30.  An effort to dilute the "where's Thom" tweets expected to pop up at the same time?  So, while Team Tillis seemingly wants to publicly ignore the other candidates in the primary race, it also appears they may not be taking any chances on letting the opponents have any free shots.



Sources say that 50+ people stopped by
to help open the Brannon for Senate
campaign office in Cornelius

With all sides gearing up for the final 90 day push to the May primary, ignoring the opposition will be harder and harder to do for Team Tillis.  That's a task made even more difficult with the Brannon Campaign opening an office in Cornelius on Friday - right down the street from entrance to the Peninsula neighborhood - almost literally right in Speaker Tillis's back yard.

Act One of this NCGOP primary drama is almost over with the main characters all set.  The main question is will the story of this primary season end after Act Two in May or will there be a surprise Act Three and a run-off in July?