Saturday, June 30, 2018

Davidson population growth set to accelerate in coming years

Recent stories on population growth in the Charlotte area conspicuously did not mention Davidson as one of the top areas for new residents.  (See here as an example.)  That may be surprising considering the number of new developments in the works around town.  As the below graph shows, the town's population has been growing at roughly the same rate over the past few years - consistently adding about 250 people per year from 2010- 2016.

According to the Census bureau website, the July 1 estimate for 2017 says 12,684 continuing that trend and adding 232 people.

However, new developments set to fully come online this year should see that number accelerate quite significantly.  Two developments in particular will drive this accelerated growth - Davidson East and WestBranch, both under construction by Lennar.

The first phase of Davidson East is platted for 249 homes with roughly two dozen already underway.  WestBranch is also about to begin selling with its model home set to open this weekend.  This development will have 305 homes when completed.

Simple math shows how this will impact the growth numbers for the town.

If over the next 3.5 years these two developments build out at an average of 158 homes per year and these homes are populated at the town average per the US Census of 2.59 people per home, then just these two developments will add something in the neighborhood of 410 people per year.  The numbers could be less if the buildout is slower, but it could be more if the average per house is higher.

This is likely in addition to the 200+ annual average that has been added to the town population in recent years.  This doesn't count other new neighborhoods also underway like Washam Neighborhood, Davidson Bay Phase II, and Narrow Passage plus the ongoing infill development that seems to be happening on every vacant lot in town.

Is Davidson ready to absorb 600-700 new residents per year?  We are about to find out.  Also, when those growth rate stories come out in future years don't be surprised to see Davidson near the top of the list.

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